Posted:
#1
ANY ADVICE ON HEDGING?TY IN ADVANCE
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PACKERS AT 28-1 TO WIN SUPER BOWL
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Views: 1947
Posts: 22
Posted:
#9
Quote Originally Posted by DrKnoNothing:
The best way to hedge is when the pack go up by 7 and silence the crowd early in the game. Ty Montgomery is going to rush for 100 yda on that atlanta D. That will keep ryan on the sidelines
The best way to hedge is when the pack go up by 7 and silence the crowd early in the game. Ty Montgomery is going to rush for 100 yda on that atlanta D. That will keep ryan on the sidelines
And then GB wins that game and loses in the Super Bowl, and you lose both bets
Stupid
I have GB 40-1 and not even thinking about hedging. Amateur move
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Posted:
#10
you have to hedge both games if you can afford it. If i had 300 at 28 to one i would hedge for 500 when Green Bay got up 7 on atlanta that would be an investment of 800. Probably get atlanta on the ML at -110 or -125 and and that ticket would pay 900-800 invstment you would still profit a 100 dollars. when Green Bay Beats atlanta. i would hedge 1500 when Green Bay got lead in the superbowl. the starting odds will be smaller in the SB so When Green Bay goes up 7 there you can probably get the other side at +110 or +120. So when Green Bay beats atlanta you are still only invested 800. when Green Bay gets to the SB and you hedge the 1500 at +110 you will have 2300 invested total. one ticket will either pay 8400-2300 which you still profit 6100 or the other ticket will pay 3150-2300 which is still a profit of 850 but your choice on whether or not you decide to hedge. i don't have very much money so when i get the chance to hedge i hedge i always try to take the money
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Odds no way
Posted:
#15
I was thinking about this a little bit, and you could do the following?
Put 500 on Atlanta ML to win 250.
Also, put 300 on Patriots +150 to win the superbowl to pay 450.
If GB wins and Pats win you are down 800 net with $450 as a guaranteed hedge. You only need to put enough on Pats moneyline to cover $350 for a guaranteed win.
If Atlanta wins and loses to Pats in SB you make $400 net.
If Atlanta wins and beats the Pats.You would lose $350, only $50 more than your original bet. You could put $100 on Atlanta ML in the SB who would surely be an underdog to the Pats, and you would still be guaranteed to lose less than your original $300 bet.
If Steelers win and Atlanta wins, then you lose $350 net. Only $50 more than your original bet, but gain the ability to hedge in SB in all other scenarios. This is the worst case scenario however.
If GB wins and Steelers win, then you need to put enough to cover $950 as a hedge on Steelers money line and you are still guaranteed to win.
IMO, the risk of losing an additional $50 is very much worth being able to hedge in all other scenarios except for a Falcons Steelers super bowl matchup.
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Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
i'd ride it all the way.....
i'd ride it all the way.....
but if you have to, play the live ML. hope Packers score a couple and get Atlanta ML down to almost a pick em or +ML to cover your $300..
FWIW, you could do both. You could use my strategy to hedge and hedge slightly further if in fact the Falcons do get closer to a ML tomorrow.
With that said, sometimes I forget my audience of degenerate gamblers...so perhaps screw it all, and let it ride!
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