Posted:
#1
Hello all. I feel that the cardinal dilemma with gaining any kind of handle on a side in this game lies in choosing whether or not to incorporate the data from the games the Fins played under Joe Philbin.
If one is truly sold on the concept that the they are a new team, then the side in this game isn't difficult to settle on -- based upon the last 2 games statistics, this line is undoubtedly somewhat inflated. I have seen much discussion citing the fact that the past 2 teams that the Dolphins have played are subpar. While this may be true, they beat these teams rather handily, which is really all they're able to do.
Nonetheless, I saw an interesting post about a week ago regarding the performance boost typical of teams who have recently fired their head coach, who are playing under an interim head coach. While Dr. John does not have any trend numbers for this situation, it may bear potential for consideration. Further, whether one believes in Campbell as being a qualified coach or not, a shortened week simply is not conducive to constructing a gameplay to beat the Patriots. As such, rather than choosing a side in this game, I will instead choose to act on the total.
For anyone who read last week's post examining potentially useful trends related to primetime games, this pick probably won't come as much of a surprise. Once again, after running the numbers (and yes, there is a similar challenge with the total about choosing which data to incorporate, as aforementioned; Dr. John inevitably had to exercise some discretion in this area), the total of 51 seems to be rather high. My model, which has done quite well as of recent, going 5-1 in picks posted on covers (5-0 in primetime games), pegs this total just above 48 points. As 49 is somewhat of a key number, there is considerable value in anything above 50 and Dr. John recommends it as a 1* play (if this total hits 52, it will qualify as 2*).
The pass rush of the Fins should be able to do just enough to keep Brady unsettled and not allow him to get comfortable in the pocket. As always, the challenge will be to exhibit reliable tackling throughout the game, as Brady will almost assuredly be forced to get the ball out to receivers quickly. On the other side of the ball, Lamar Miller will need to have success on the ground and the offense will have to keep Brady's time on the field to a minimum if the Dolphins want to keep this one a contest. Say what you will about Dan Campbell, but these both seem like areas that a "former TE coach" would excel at.
Dr. John's model suggests a 1* play on Under 51 (down to a total of 49.5; if the total reaches 52, this becomes a 2* play) for Thursday night's game.
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