Posted:
#1
Every year I say I'm going to not play a buttload of games week 1, and every year I lie! Screw it, here's my picks:
Carolina -3 1 unit
If Trevor Siemian can outplay Cam in his first start then fair play to him. I think both these teams are fade material tbh. Denver's defense lost some key guys and even if it doesn't drop off much I just don't see them getting enough help from their offense. Unless they get points from the defense or set up with turnovers like they did so often last year I think Carolina gets the W.
Kansas City -6.5 1 unit
I know everyone is saying the Chargers will be much better this year and they definitely should be, but I'm going to bet it doesn't come together week 1 on the road vs a division opponent that can run the ball well and defend the run well, because SD was abysmal in both those basic areas last year and I don't see them going 180 straight away. I know some people like to go with double revenge angles etc but in the NFL you often see that the teams at the bottom of a division get owned time after time by teams at the top and I think KC is actually the best team in a weak division. SD didn't score a single TD vs KC last year so I'll lay the number.
NYJ +2.5 1 unit
I'm going to play ON both the Jets and Buffalo vs their AFC North opponents who both have QBs coming off of injuries. For Dalton, the sight of that Jets defensive front is not what you want to see in game 1 on the road. The Jets only lost one home game last year, though the only win against a good team was vs NE. Still, I don't think it's out of the question to see them beat Cincinnati if they get pressure on Dalton.
Buffalo +3 1 unit
I guess the oddsmakers think getting Flacco back is going to make a tremendous difference to this team that couldn't get turnovers, couldn't get touchdowns and couldn't run the ball last year. Buffalo on the other hand was the top rushing offense and had a much better sack rate and turnover differential. I like to try and predict little storylines that might develop and I could see the NYJ-BUF showdown between Rex and his old team having that extra appeal with both teams being 1-0 (hopefully).
Also, since both Baltimore and Cinci have division games the week after I'm not worried about look aheads because it basically cancels each other out.
New Orleans PK 1 unit
As bad as the defense was for the Saints last year, the offense was tops in yardage and I'm willing to take a chance here on a team that has traditionally been good at home vs a team that has traditionally been bad on the road. Brees has insane weapons around him and his window is closing. I think he schools the youngster Derek Carr in this home game and has a big showing. The QB most likely to make the critical mistake is on the other team, and until Oakland's WRs stop making bad drops I'll take Cooks, Fleener, etc.
Minn/Tenn Under 43 1 unit
It's gone down to 41 now but I locked this in before the Bridgewater injury. I'm not sure if I like it less or more now though tbh. Anyway, it's in, so I posted it.
Dallas -1 2 units
With the Giants having a new coach I am going to go against them here even with the rookie starting because Dallas dominated NYG in the trenches last year and their outstanding offensive line is why Dak looked so good in preseason. He will struggle against teams that can collapse the pocket but the Giants only have one good pass rusher so that's not a concern here. With Morris in the fold and Bryant healthy, I think they can roll here without Dak having to do too much.
Indy/Detroit Over 50.5 1 unit
Highest total on the board and with good reason: 2 passing offenses in a dome and 2 defenses that struggle to get stops. Stafford and Luck will probably throw it all around the yard. Both teams were terrible in allowing points in the 4th quarter last year so the points will continue to pour in as these already weak defenses wear down.
Sun night and Mon night picks will be posted later. Best of luck all!
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