Posted:
#1
Hello Covers and this great NFL forum:
I posted last year about my new system of picking teams and began officially posting publicly to keep the record over the last
8 weeks of the season, posting 5 sides ATS a week in line with
my Super Contest picks. My public record over those 40 games was 24-16 (60%). Way too small a sample size, but the chase continues to collect data publicly this year to continue seeing how good this system is. Originally, I was planning on not posting week 1 and 2 picks, but I have done extensive additional research into games and feel confident enough to do that and plan on posting for all 17 weeks starting right here. But first, just to catch you up to speed if you did not follow my posts last year, I share with you
below my last post on this topic below. It was made after week 17 on January 4, 2016. Here goes:
"Happy to report that nothing this year indicates that my system for picking teams is not a winner. While it's way too early statistically to call this a slam dunk (that will take another couple years of consistent public postings), the 24-16 success rate of 60% over the past 40 is a promising start. This,week the system just missed going 4-1 as Kansas City won by 6 when I had them at -6.5, but 3-2 is fine and mirrors the overall rate of .60 success so far. I shall continue next year, posting 75 games beginning in week 3 and continuing through week 17. There is not enough reliable data available to pick teams in weeks one and two in my system, so I will just exclude that. By the end of next season we will have examined the system over 115 games and by the third year that number will be 190, giving us much more statistical power to reach conclusions, and either award this system as a legitimate force to be reckoned with, or a cartoon character :-) .... between you and me, I'm pretty confident Mickey Mouse's job is not in jeopardy and we will all be excited about this new valid creation. Enjoy the playoffs and Super Bowl and I'll be back next year!" |
OK, so that was last January 4, and I am now back, with an even
better system, and here are my week one picks below. Keep in mind this is a long marathon, and any system can go 0-5 one week
and still be great, or go 5-0 in a given week and still be trash. The
only thing that counts, in my book, is long-term proven public success.
So here goes for week 1 with an ongoing record now of 24 wins and 16 losses (60%). Please tell me what you think about these picks that my system produced:
Buccaneers +2.5 (against Falcons)
Saints -1.5 (against Raiders)
Bills +3 (against Ravens)
Bears +6 (against Texans)
Lions +3.5 (against Colts)
Looking forward to your comments. I am hoping to get off to a good or at least reasonable start, but there is a huge chance element here, and I don't have nearly enough proven public results yet to get too excited, so follow at your own risk :-)
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