5-2 overall last week. Wanted to start by getting one of my plays out early and providing a little insight on why I like the play. This play will be my biggest so far this year.
Bills at Chiefs
I know oddsmakers are very sharp with their lines especially on a Sunday night game where they will get the heaviest action, however this one definitely had me raising my eyebrows. I still feel like the Chiefs are being given too much respect. Yes their offense ranks #1 in DVOA again at this juncture of the year. Yes, you could argue they’ve played a tougher schedule so far this year than most teams. Yes, I know we shouldn’t overreact to 4 weeks of football. All that aside I still really like the Bills plus the points this week. I saw +3 (-115) yesterday and jumped on it. Here’s why I love the play:
Reason 1 - Revenge
One of my favorite angles to play is the revenge factor. The Bills get to show what they are made of this year and so far have always been overshadowed and outclassed by the Chiefs the past few years. Losing last years championship game to them was heartbreaking and they’ve returned a lot of key players into this years team. Revenge is a key factor cause you get the best performance out of these players in those circumstances - I don’t believe their will be any letdown from any Bills player in this game they will be mentally prepared. This is a statement game where everyone will be watching at prime time . I don’t see the same motivational factors working for the Chiefs, obviously I’m sure they know everything I’m saying above but we’ll move to reason two.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD - 15-12(+5.1u)
5-2 overall last week. Wanted to start by getting one of my plays out early and providing a little insight on why I like the play. This play will be my biggest so far this year.
Bills at Chiefs
I know oddsmakers are very sharp with their lines especially on a Sunday night game where they will get the heaviest action, however this one definitely had me raising my eyebrows. I still feel like the Chiefs are being given too much respect. Yes their offense ranks #1 in DVOA again at this juncture of the year. Yes, you could argue they’ve played a tougher schedule so far this year than most teams. Yes, I know we shouldn’t overreact to 4 weeks of football. All that aside I still really like the Bills plus the points this week. I saw +3 (-115) yesterday and jumped on it. Here’s why I love the play:
Reason 1 - Revenge
One of my favorite angles to play is the revenge factor. The Bills get to show what they are made of this year and so far have always been overshadowed and outclassed by the Chiefs the past few years. Losing last years championship game to them was heartbreaking and they’ve returned a lot of key players into this years team. Revenge is a key factor cause you get the best performance out of these players in those circumstances - I don’t believe their will be any letdown from any Bills player in this game they will be mentally prepared. This is a statement game where everyone will be watching at prime time . I don’t see the same motivational factors working for the Chiefs, obviously I’m sure they know everything I’m saying above but we’ll move to reason two.
The Chiefs are ranked dead last at #32 in DVOA on defense this year. The Bills on the other hand are ranked #1 in DVOA by a very wide margin. I totally understand the Chiefs have played some tougher offenses and the Bills have played some weaker offenses. I understand we are working on a small sample size. All that aside, the gap is still VERY LARGE between the two. It’s the reason the Chiefs are 2-2 this year. The Chiefs defense has been awful and they are going to get any breaks against a motivated Josh Allen and company. I believe the Bills defense can get the stops needed, obviously Mahomes is going to have his way on some drives but the gap in defenses is what I’m highlighting. This isn’t just Allen vs Mahomes. It’s very much the Bills #1 DVOA defense versus the Chiefs #32 DVOA defense. Joe public will not be looking closely enough at that factor. I think this is what will separate the two come game time.
Reason 3 - The Line
I was anticipating given the circumstances for this line to be set even at both sides but knew the Chiefs are still the public darling. Obviously more action so far has come on the Bills. This always worries me and forces me to take a good hard look at why oddsmakers have to pushed this line all the way up to the 3 number (-115 odds). This time I don’t see it and if I’m wrong which I have been in the past I’ll give credit to them but I DO NOT SEE IT and I will be the sucker taking the bait if that’s the case. +3 screams value to me for a team motivated with revenge. The Bills clearly look like a much better team than the Chiefs. I don’t care if this game is at Arrowhead. I understand the Chiefs have had a much tougher schedule than the Bills so far. It does not change my opinion about this game though. The Bills will be bringing their “A” game im confident of that and that’s enough for me.
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Reason 2 - Chiefs Defense vs Bills Defense
The Chiefs are ranked dead last at #32 in DVOA on defense this year. The Bills on the other hand are ranked #1 in DVOA by a very wide margin. I totally understand the Chiefs have played some tougher offenses and the Bills have played some weaker offenses. I understand we are working on a small sample size. All that aside, the gap is still VERY LARGE between the two. It’s the reason the Chiefs are 2-2 this year. The Chiefs defense has been awful and they are going to get any breaks against a motivated Josh Allen and company. I believe the Bills defense can get the stops needed, obviously Mahomes is going to have his way on some drives but the gap in defenses is what I’m highlighting. This isn’t just Allen vs Mahomes. It’s very much the Bills #1 DVOA defense versus the Chiefs #32 DVOA defense. Joe public will not be looking closely enough at that factor. I think this is what will separate the two come game time.
Reason 3 - The Line
I was anticipating given the circumstances for this line to be set even at both sides but knew the Chiefs are still the public darling. Obviously more action so far has come on the Bills. This always worries me and forces me to take a good hard look at why oddsmakers have to pushed this line all the way up to the 3 number (-115 odds). This time I don’t see it and if I’m wrong which I have been in the past I’ll give credit to them but I DO NOT SEE IT and I will be the sucker taking the bait if that’s the case. +3 screams value to me for a team motivated with revenge. The Bills clearly look like a much better team than the Chiefs. I don’t care if this game is at Arrowhead. I understand the Chiefs have had a much tougher schedule than the Bills so far. It does not change my opinion about this game though. The Bills will be bringing their “A” game im confident of that and that’s enough for me.
Falcons rank dead last by a considerable margin in overall DVOA statistics this year. They should not be laying point against anyone on a non home game even the Jets. If Zach Wilson limits the turnovers I think the Jets take this one pretty easily. Hoping they build some confidence and momentum from last weeks win.
Early Games
Bengals +3 (-115) risking 2.3 to win 2u
Packers missing some key contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Jaire Alexander and Zadarius Smith mean a lot to their squad and without them I think Joe Burrow picks this defense apart. Also Bengals defense is kind of underrated this year and can give Rodgers trouble.
Dolphins +10 risking 1.1u to win 1u
This game to me is not as much about statistics as it is about the spots for each team and what kind of effort you are going to get. I feel the Bucs and Brady just got done with two straight big games and this one looks simple for them with a Thursday game on deck…possible letdown spot? I really think so. The Dolphins on the other hand are coming off three straight losses going against the super bowl champs. I feel they’ll be motivated to get things back on track. Jacoby Brissett starting to get more acclimated in the offense and the Bucs definitely have some holes on defense. I think this one stays within a TD.
Panthers -3 risking 1.1u to win 1u
Last week the Panthers went from being the #1 DVOA team to now being favored against the Eagles by 3 points at home? Yes they took a beat down from the Cowboys but they aren’t this bad. Just doesn’t make sense to me. I think Matt Rhule is a good coach who will have this team prepared. Eagles have not shown me anything to believe they can hang with this team.
Saints -2.5 risking 1.1u to win 1u
Another value play here. Saints are 2-2 but their metrics rank them at #7 so far this year in DVOA. Redskins are 2-2 and ranked #18. Additionally with Sean Payton as coach the Saints have always played well coming off a loss. Playing it small but worth throwing 1u on.
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Adding these for Sunday:
London Game
Jets +3 (-115) risking 2.3 to win 2u
Falcons rank dead last by a considerable margin in overall DVOA statistics this year. They should not be laying point against anyone on a non home game even the Jets. If Zach Wilson limits the turnovers I think the Jets take this one pretty easily. Hoping they build some confidence and momentum from last weeks win.
Early Games
Bengals +3 (-115) risking 2.3 to win 2u
Packers missing some key contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Jaire Alexander and Zadarius Smith mean a lot to their squad and without them I think Joe Burrow picks this defense apart. Also Bengals defense is kind of underrated this year and can give Rodgers trouble.
Dolphins +10 risking 1.1u to win 1u
This game to me is not as much about statistics as it is about the spots for each team and what kind of effort you are going to get. I feel the Bucs and Brady just got done with two straight big games and this one looks simple for them with a Thursday game on deck…possible letdown spot? I really think so. The Dolphins on the other hand are coming off three straight losses going against the super bowl champs. I feel they’ll be motivated to get things back on track. Jacoby Brissett starting to get more acclimated in the offense and the Bucs definitely have some holes on defense. I think this one stays within a TD.
Panthers -3 risking 1.1u to win 1u
Last week the Panthers went from being the #1 DVOA team to now being favored against the Eagles by 3 points at home? Yes they took a beat down from the Cowboys but they aren’t this bad. Just doesn’t make sense to me. I think Matt Rhule is a good coach who will have this team prepared. Eagles have not shown me anything to believe they can hang with this team.
Saints -2.5 risking 1.1u to win 1u
Another value play here. Saints are 2-2 but their metrics rank them at #7 so far this year in DVOA. Redskins are 2-2 and ranked #18. Additionally with Sean Payton as coach the Saints have always played well coming off a loss. Playing it small but worth throwing 1u on.
Really like this play, I know I’m following the public here on two bigger plays this week but everything I’m seeing is telling me Cowboys win big in this spot. Obviously I always get concerned when I’m backing a team that’s 4-0 ATS this year as I know oddsmakers aren’t trying to gift us the win. The Giants played well last week but Danny Dimes has always been inconsistent thus far in his career and it’s tough playing back to back road games. Cowboys offense is a huge mismatch against the Giants D. Don’t believe this a letdown spot for the Cowboys either going against a divisional opponent. Cowboys have played a tough schedule thus far and still rank #2 in overall DVOA. The Giants have played a overall easy schedule and rank #21. What should make me believe they are going to keep up with the Cowboys? If I’m missing something here I’ll take the “L” but I think the Boys win by at least 10+.
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Late Games
Cowboys -7 risking 3.3u to win 3u
Really like this play, I know I’m following the public here on two bigger plays this week but everything I’m seeing is telling me Cowboys win big in this spot. Obviously I always get concerned when I’m backing a team that’s 4-0 ATS this year as I know oddsmakers aren’t trying to gift us the win. The Giants played well last week but Danny Dimes has always been inconsistent thus far in his career and it’s tough playing back to back road games. Cowboys offense is a huge mismatch against the Giants D. Don’t believe this a letdown spot for the Cowboys either going against a divisional opponent. Cowboys have played a tough schedule thus far and still rank #2 in overall DVOA. The Giants have played a overall easy schedule and rank #21. What should make me believe they are going to keep up with the Cowboys? If I’m missing something here I’ll take the “L” but I think the Boys win by at least 10+.
Two teams pretty evenly matched. Bears rank #25 in DVOA metrics and Raiders #22 and I would add that the minus the Lions game the Bears have played some tougher opponents than the Raiders. Was expecting to see 3.5 or possibly 4 with Raiders coming off Monday night game. Will happily grab 5.5 here. Bears will get pressure on Carr and Fields continues to get more comfortable in this offense and keep this one close.
Browns ML +120 risking 2u to win 2.4u
Home field advantage for the Bolts hardly feels like home field advantage. I would not treat a home game for the Bolts like a home game for the Packers, Chiefs, Cowboys, etc. I’d give them maybe a point or 1.5 for the home field advantage vs a neutral site. Additionally the Browns rank as the #4 team against the #14 Chargers in DVOA metrics despite having an easier schedule thus far. The Browns play good defense, have a very good offensive line and can run the football and control the clock which is why I side with them. Those kinds of teams typically travel well. Like the fact that the Chargers are coming off a short week as well. Siding with the Browns to win at plus money.
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Bears +5.5 risking 1.1u to win 1u
Two teams pretty evenly matched. Bears rank #25 in DVOA metrics and Raiders #22 and I would add that the minus the Lions game the Bears have played some tougher opponents than the Raiders. Was expecting to see 3.5 or possibly 4 with Raiders coming off Monday night game. Will happily grab 5.5 here. Bears will get pressure on Carr and Fields continues to get more comfortable in this offense and keep this one close.
Browns ML +120 risking 2u to win 2.4u
Home field advantage for the Bolts hardly feels like home field advantage. I would not treat a home game for the Bolts like a home game for the Packers, Chiefs, Cowboys, etc. I’d give them maybe a point or 1.5 for the home field advantage vs a neutral site. Additionally the Browns rank as the #4 team against the #14 Chargers in DVOA metrics despite having an easier schedule thus far. The Browns play good defense, have a very good offensive line and can run the football and control the clock which is why I side with them. Those kinds of teams typically travel well. Like the fact that the Chargers are coming off a short week as well. Siding with the Browns to win at plus money.
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