Plays

#1: Parlay Ravens ML & Lions ML -125

Two elite teams (even with the injuries to DET,) who feel like they’re playing must win games. Bears suck, though one of the few teams to cover against the Lions. Either way, they suck and Detroit has had #1 seed written all over them this year and losing that and at the same time potentially losing a home playoff game of all things if they slide against SF or MIN as well would be catastrophic. Ravens lost another game where they fell victim to Steelers football and it’s hard to imagine a team this talented, at home, losing again to a team clearly compromised without Pickens and maybe Watt. 

#2 Ravens spread (slight advantage being at home over the lions)

#3 Lions spread 

#4 Bengals ML & Ravens ML (-140) / Bengals ML & Lions ML (-145)

-140/-145 isn’t ideal, but neither is a three team ML parlay. Same info as above but extend this to the Bengals who have a real chance at making the playoffs because they definitely have the ability to win out, if the Colts can fall to one of the three shitty teams they play, Miami loses one and broncos lose to KC week 18 (play bengals next week,) then Cincy gets in and nobody wants that. Imagine bills/chiefs (2 seed) vs CIN (7 seed) first round. Also, browns are awful, their defense has regressed even at home, and they’re relying on ford and jeudy..

#5 BUF/GB -14 (teaser of -5.5 or 6.5 preferred with something to make an even money parlay)

Two elite teams needing wins (bills 1 seed, packers seeding and potential back door NFC north champs) against terrible teams. 

#6 Cardinals ML 

Cardinals are not worth 225 to win 100, nor should they be 4.5 favorites over anyone, particularly on the road. A parlay with something is the only thing I could get myself to do. This is a spot where I shouldn’t bet the game at all, but Carolina is terrible and the cardinals HAVE to have this game. This is what Kyler Murray always does. The desperation, potential (do the cardinals really have potential?) and weak opponent make this a spot that’s hard to resist. 

#7 Texans +3.5 (prefer teaser even money parlay with them at 8.5)

This was a gut feeling I had going into last week without factoring in the mahomes injury. Bet he plays, but his elusiveness won’t be the same. Hard to ever bet against KC, especially at home, because of mahomes and the best HC and DC in the league. That said, Texans are doing what they’re supposed to even if it’s not the

explosive offense they could be. This is an AM game which is the least pressure of any game, but personally, Texans and Stroud play good teams close in high stress games and think this is one of them. Honestly, both these teams play games close in general and it’s hard to imagine anything different. 

#8 Seahawks ML, +3 (prefer teaser even money parlay at +8.5)

I am going to contradict myself on the next two plays because the Seahawks and Bucs are both streaky teams and the Seahawks got owned up front on offense and defense against GB. Seemingly, this should start a new cold stretch for Seattle based on how this season has gone. That being said, Geno playing is as huge a factor as mahomes this

week because of his command of the offense and more importantly, the desperation they need to come out with in a back-to-back home stretch vs great NFC north teams, getting embarrassed Sunday night. They need to show out if they want to prove to themselves they are a contender, let alone the NFC North on the fritz. 

#9 Cowboys +4 (prefer teaser even money parlay at 10.5 or 11.5)

Bucs lost 4 in a row, now have won 4 in a row. They are playing outstanding offense in a predominantly defensive minded scheme of coaching, which is challenging to beat. That being said, they tend to play to the level of their opponents and Cowboys play decent when they have nothing to lose. Just a feel on this one, and the next nfc east game…

#10 Washington ML, +3 (prefer teaser even money parlay at 8.5)

Faith in Washington in a division matchup against a team that played far more physical down the stretch in their first matchup. At home now and coming off a win that has to feel like house money because they played so poorly off the bye and still squeezed one out on the road

#11 Colts ML, -3 (bought down to 2.5,) teaser +3.5/4.5 

Pair this with anything above for an even money parlay. Brutal loss last week for Indy but their schedule is so favorable and their path to the playoffs is still possible if LAC implodes. Brian callahan still cant figure out his offense because of qb play and this is a must win for the Colts like never before..at home nonetheless.

Pickens is out but TJ Watt isn't listed on the injury report and will be starting. I still think the Ravens is the right side and the worm will turn in Baltimore. BOL 

Good stuff! GL 

Giants +8.5 (teased to 15.5 preferred with something else for even money parlay)

Daboll is a better coach than people think  and the falcons have as big a question mark at qb as they do. Home field at Atlanta never feels intimidating and giants have nothing to lose. Potential tank situation is the one concern, but hey they have 8-15pts to play with.