Rams - Ravens and Why

I'm 1-3 on my Nfl posted playoff picks so may want to fade:)   Let's look at some numbers:

45.5  LAR  24 10 22 20 7 5  

-4.5  Phil   2 29 10 1 4 30   

Phil opened at 4.5, currently around 6.5 -7.     Phil is better in Off rushing 2 vs 24;  Rushing def 10 vs 22; passing def 1 vs 20   sagarin rank 4 vs 7 .   

Rams on the otherhand are better Passing off at 10 vs 29 and sched strength at 5 vs 30.   

I'm trying to do an apples to apples comparison - so I look at playoff data from previous years looking for a situation where the opening line is -4.5  and the categories above are similar and I alos look at regular season data as well.    In this case there was a Playoff game that met the criteria - Phil played the Bears a few years ago and philly pulled it out 16-15  as the away team.    I also looked at regular season data and there was additional games supporting taking the away team.    

I get it - the weather etc - Stafford plays inside etc.    I'm going with my numbers.   

In the Raven game Baltimore is better in all 5 categories except  def passing.    Bills opened up at 1 and the line switched to -1 for Baltimore.   Often when you see a line of 1 for the home team - the away team takes it.    My plays:

1. Rams Eagles under 43 

2. Rams +7 

3. Ravens -1   

Good luck all 

@TheBuddah

 Good luck brother! Like them both 

Nice write up and GL 

@insatiable

 Thanks bud and back at ya.

@Fuse

 Thanks and back at ya bud