I'm 1-3 on my Nfl posted playoff picks so may want to fade:) Let's look at some numbers:
45.5 LAR 24 10 22 20 7 5
-4.5 Phil 2 29 10 1 4 30
Phil opened at 4.5, currently around 6.5 -7. Phil is better in Off rushing 2 vs 24; Rushing def 10 vs 22; passing def 1 vs 20 sagarin rank 4 vs 7 .
Rams on the otherhand are better Passing off at 10 vs 29 and sched strength at 5 vs 30.
I'm trying to do an apples to apples comparison - so I look at playoff data from previous years looking for a situation where the opening line is -4.5 and the categories above are similar and I alos look at regular season data as well. In this case there was a Playoff game that met the criteria - Phil played the Bears a few years ago and philly pulled it out 16-15 as the away team. I also looked at regular season data and there was additional games supporting taking the away team.
I get it - the weather etc - Stafford plays inside etc. I'm going with my numbers.
In the Raven game Baltimore is better in all 5 categories except def passing. Bills opened up at 1 and the line switched to -1 for Baltimore. Often when you see a line of 1 for the home team - the away team takes it. My plays:
1. Rams Eagles under 43
2. Rams +7
3. Ravens -1
Good luck all
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm 1-3 on my Nfl posted playoff picks so may want to fade:) Let's look at some numbers:
45.5 LAR 24 10 22 20 7 5
-4.5 Phil 2 29 10 1 4 30
Phil opened at 4.5, currently around 6.5 -7. Phil is better in Off rushing 2 vs 24; Rushing def 10 vs 22; passing def 1 vs 20 sagarin rank 4 vs 7 .
Rams on the otherhand are better Passing off at 10 vs 29 and sched strength at 5 vs 30.
I'm trying to do an apples to apples comparison - so I look at playoff data from previous years looking for a situation where the opening line is -4.5 and the categories above are similar and I alos look at regular season data as well. In this case there was a Playoff game that met the criteria - Phil played the Bears a few years ago and philly pulled it out 16-15 as the away team. I also looked at regular season data and there was additional games supporting taking the away team.
I get it - the weather etc - Stafford plays inside etc. I'm going with my numbers.
In the Raven game Baltimore is better in all 5 categories except def passing. Bills opened up at 1 and the line switched to -1 for Baltimore. Often when you see a line of 1 for the home team - the away team takes it. My plays:
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