Posted:
#1
Posted this another thread, but thought the trend was interesting enough for a new point.
Looking at historical SB lines, Vegas screws up on the favorite every other year.
- Even years, the favorite scored 15.1 points below the Vegas team total expectations.
- Odd years, the favorite scored 3.7 points above the Vegas team total expectations.
- Other than SB 47 and 48, Vegas has been nearly on point on the underdog line (0.7 points above Vegas line for TT).
- In the even years, Under is 4-1
- In the odd years, Over is 4-1 (and the one loss was 1 point away from hitting over)
Conclusion (if you believe the trend carries any weight):
- NE 34 vs ATL 28
- Take Over 58
- Take NE -3
Table of past Super Bowl lines, TTs based on O/U and spread, and actual points scored.
SB50: o/u 43.5 + 5 point line
- Favorite (CAR): TT 24.25 vs 10 actual (-14.25 variance)
- Dog (DEN): TT 19.25 vs 24 actual (+4.75 variance)
SB49: o/u 47.5 + pick'em
- Favorite (NE): TT 23.75 vs 28 actual (+4.25 variance)
- Dog (SEA): TT 23.75 vs 24 actual (+0.25 variance)
SB48: o/u 43.5 + 2.5 point line
- Favorite (DEN): TT 25 vs 8 actual (-17 variance)
- Dog (SEA): TT 22.5 vs 43 actual (+20.5 variance)
SB47: o/u 48 + 4.5 point line
- Favorite (SF): TT 26.25 vs 31 actual (+4.8 variance)
- Dog (BAL): TT 21.75 vs 34 actual (+12.75 variance)
SB46: o/u 53 + 2.5 point line
- Favorite (NE): TT 27.75 vs 17 actual (-10.8 variance)
- Dog (NYG): TT 25.25 vs 21 actual (-4.3 variance)
SB45: o/u 45 + 3 point line
- Favorite (GB): TT 24 vs 31 actual (+7 variance)
- Dog (PIT): TT 21 vs 25 actual (+4 variance)
SB44: o/u 57 + 5 point line
- Favorite (IND): TT 31 vs 17 actual (-14 variance)
- Dog (NO): TT 26 vs 31 actual (+5 variance)
SB43: o/u 46 + 7 point line
- Favorite (PIT): TT 26.5 vs 27 actual (+.5 variance)
- Dog (ARI): TT 19.5 vs 23 actual (+3.5 variance)
SB42: o/u 55 + 12 point line
- Favorite (NE): TT 33.5 vs 14 actual (-19.5 variance)
- Dog (NYG): TT 21.5 vs 17 actual (-4.5 variance)
SB41: o/u 47 + 7 point line
- Favorite (IND): TT 27 vs 29 actual (+2 variance)
- Dog (CHI): TT 20 vs 17 actual (-3 variance)
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