I can understand why some smart folks here are all over Denver and the points now -- I get it. Based upon recency bias, folks are assuming that Carolina will once again dominate the AFC's entrant into the SB because they so convincingly throttled both SEA and AZ. The line was bid up by the public/early $ ("squares") and now the VALUE lies with the points and the Broncos. Furthermore, conventional wisdom suggests that when two defenses of this caliber meet in a big game, points SHOULD be harder to come by, and it's no wonder the total is drawn like a magnet to 44, a key number. That said, I like the Over 44/44.5 tomorrow, although an Under bet for the 1stH looks interesting. Shorter fields due to turnovers and the raw speed of both teams on all sides of the ball tell me to ignore the conventional wisdom in this spot.
See, I've never made much money following conventional wisdom, but I have made lots of coin following strong, fresh patterns, or what many here consider "recency bias"... let's see what happens on the field tomorrow night, I just hope that all of you "Peyton rides off into the sunset" narrative backers realize that while Manning's HGH file has been put on the shelf until after Sunday, the NFL intends to get to the bottom of it, and for the fix-fans this should be a little disconcerting imo... oh well, this is my last thread before the SB, GL everybody, I have made my opinion well known by now, as I believe CAR wins by 2 scores minimum and the total goes over 44.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I can understand why some smart folks here are all over Denver and the points now -- I get it. Based upon recency bias, folks are assuming that Carolina will once again dominate the AFC's entrant into the SB because they so convincingly throttled both SEA and AZ. The line was bid up by the public/early $ ("squares") and now the VALUE lies with the points and the Broncos. Furthermore, conventional wisdom suggests that when two defenses of this caliber meet in a big game, points SHOULD be harder to come by, and it's no wonder the total is drawn like a magnet to 44, a key number. That said, I like the Over 44/44.5 tomorrow, although an Under bet for the 1stH looks interesting. Shorter fields due to turnovers and the raw speed of both teams on all sides of the ball tell me to ignore the conventional wisdom in this spot.
See, I've never made much money following conventional wisdom, but I have made lots of coin following strong, fresh patterns, or what many here consider "recency bias"... let's see what happens on the field tomorrow night, I just hope that all of you "Peyton rides off into the sunset" narrative backers realize that while Manning's HGH file has been put on the shelf until after Sunday, the NFL intends to get to the bottom of it, and for the fix-fans this should be a little disconcerting imo... oh well, this is my last thread before the SB, GL everybody, I have made my opinion well known by now, as I believe CAR wins by 2 scores minimum and the total goes over 44.
Good one Achilles, well crafted. This is NOT a large play for me, neither is frankly. BOL to you, I wish I were wrong and Peyton et al lived happily ever after, yet I really believe that this Panthers team "believes", and they may be taking over the reins from New England as the NFL's next great team and dynasty behind Cam, a very smart front office, and a publicly dispassionate owner - but shrewd man who vets the recipients of his paychecks thoroughly.
If Denver gets off on the wrong foot, it could get out of hand quickly, I still expect the score to be in the 50's regardless.
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Good one Achilles, well crafted. This is NOT a large play for me, neither is frankly. BOL to you, I wish I were wrong and Peyton et al lived happily ever after, yet I really believe that this Panthers team "believes", and they may be taking over the reins from New England as the NFL's next great team and dynasty behind Cam, a very smart front office, and a publicly dispassionate owner - but shrewd man who vets the recipients of his paychecks thoroughly.
If Denver gets off on the wrong foot, it could get out of hand quickly, I still expect the score to be in the 50's regardless.
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