Posted:
#1
Having a debated with friends, anyone have insight/long-sterm stats on how it shakes out when choosing a dog +2.5 or less versus always going with the money line? Please advise, thanks!
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Small Dogs vs ML
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Posted:
#3
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
i am going to say maybe 10% to 15% of the time the favorite wins by 1 pt or veey rarely by 2 pts.... favorite or dog usually wins outright. going by experience here. if you like underdog on a short line might as well lay a little more on the ML
i am going to say maybe 10% to 15% of the time the favorite wins by 1 pt or veey rarely by 2 pts.... favorite or dog usually wins outright. going by experience here. if you like underdog on a short line might as well lay a little more on the ML
I concur. Any sort of quantifiable information?
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Posted:
#6
Quote Originally Posted by NostradomusJr:
Having a debated with friends, anyone have insight/long-sterm stats on how it shakes out when choosing a dog +2.5 or less versus always going with the money line? Please advise, thanks!
Having a debated with friends, anyone have insight/long-sterm stats on how it shakes out when choosing a dog +2.5 or less versus always going with the money line? Please advise, thanks!
spread comes into play 16.8% of the time. IF you win probably 3/4 of all your dog plays and played ML? you'd be up more often than not. The probability is on how many of those small dog plays you actually win to say is it worth playing ML. Because if you only won 5% of them, ML wouldn't have done you much. Now here's the thing also: small dog, will give you a nickel or dime to even juice? Somewhere around there. So while you'll make some money? You'd have to figure out how many you won? And how many you lost? And how many you lost because you went ML when it'd have covered the spread. IMO? play the spread. it's INS and the juice you're winning off ML is not enough to offset the ATS win.
SU: a dog with a line less than 2.5that won the game won 424-457-2 (-0.46, 48.1%) outright.
ATS: 439-428-16 (1.06, 50.6%)
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