What is exactly at stake here today? (other than my 1-1 NFL record on here since returning)
With it being one of the holiest of Sundays on the calendar, and less than 8 hours until kickoff, I want to address a lean on the spread/ML and take a side on the total.
Superbowl LIX could bring the phrase “three-peat” back into the sports universe with a Kansas City win. A bonafide dynasty is on the line here. Patrick Mahomes has already etched himself into the history books and the HOF. His team, however, is not only playing the Eagles today. The Chiefs are squaring off with history ; no team has ever defended their championship back-to-back-to-back times.
This is the closest a team has come to accomplishing this feat since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots at the turn of the millennium. Those Patriots won three Super Bowls in four years — between 2001 and 2004.
Today, Andy Reid passes the former Patriots head coach Bill Belichick for the most playoff games coached in NFL history (45).
The Chiefs opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are available at -1 with a correlating ML price of -115 to -120.
The spread and total haven’t budged much — yet.
I’m making my LEAN as a play on history and timing.
As of this writing, 8 hours in advance, the Chiefs are the slight favorite for the full game. Eagles are favored for the first half, however. (At least on DK).
My opinion is that this line flips before kickoff. Eagles close as the favorite. That’s why if you like it, get it now.
LEAN: EAGLES ML (+100)
For the total play, I will be solidly supporting the UNDER at the current available number. But for this one we will want to wait until some of that sweet, sweet public OVER money comes in as people who don’t know what they are doing click on the “forget password” button in their sportsbook app they re-downloaded today.
The number of 48.5 hasn’t budged, but I am expecting a slow first half before we get some second half magic in the Superdome. ?The Eagles were slow starters for most of this season, but paired that with a superb first half defensive unit that allowed 8.8 first-half points per game (third-best in league). The Chiefs defensive unit was also solid in the first half, as well as a historically good run defense in the playoffs.
It’s quite difficult to not imagine Saquon Barkley going for 100+ yards today on the ground. 18 straight games for the Chiefs’ defense in the playoffs holding rushers to under 100 yards is impressive but will ultimately come to an end today. Can’t put anything on the prop though. If you are able to bet on MVP prop - consider Barkley for the birthday narrative.
Fourth down conversions will extend already lengthy drives via the tush-push and this one will come down to the end. My money is on the Eagles defense and their dependence on the run game to initially open things up for their passing game later on in the game. The added-on pressure for the Chiefs could make for some conservative play-calls, like settling for field goals.
Let’s wait this one out a few more hours, but still this year’s superbowl pick is:
TOTAL: UNDER 48.5 (-110)
&
Best available number at kickoff (49? 49.5?)
Cheers 
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