Solid Betting Strategies

So I'm new here and to sports betting and trying to really understand solid analysis on NFL bets specifically. This year the dogs are clearly in charge and thus costing me money so I'm going give you my take on what I think I need to start doing to make consistent profit.

First off, if you're winning games in the last second of the game or if your team plays like garbage and still manages to win it's simply a bad game to bet on. Not that you were right or wrong, it's just smart to avoid games that are toss ups. You want to bet on games where your predictions come true, not where it comes down to a last minute drive because it's just going to be coin flip and impossible to predict.

My goal going forward here is to factor in trends, home field, and primetime more into my analysis. Anyone can pick the favorite but to be really good you need to go beyond that. For instance, i should have completely avoided last nights game because trends showed in completely in favor of Tenn. and the team vs. team analysis showed the steelers were far superior thus not giving me much information. Feedback from some long time posters would be much appreciated.

Trends can be very misleading. If you follow trends I guarantee you will lose more than 50% of the time. And that's being generous. Try matching teams up man for man. Learn what the players can do. For example I had the Jets to cover against Houston because I thought they had the slight advantage on specials teams, because I thought Cromartie was quick enough to slow down AJ and Sanchez has had "RECENT" success against Houston's secondary which was a trend but I would not have seen it that way if the other three factors were not involved. When everything comes together and points in one direction I make a play on it. Ben Tate was also out that game leaving the workload to Foster which also factored into my decision. Home advantage factored in as well. And emotions were running high as the Jets were desperate to win.

I'm not saying not to look at trends but think outside the box all the time. Know when to play a dog. Know when to play a favorite. Know when to play a total. Yesterday I'd say the books still made a descent profit on the Under because every Thurs night went under. And because the public still has this perception that Pittsburgh is the great defensive team they once were. Not so. Hope I'm making sense to you.

Yeah much appreciated, i've got a tendency of taking the away favorite because those games just pop out to me. I guess I gotta give vegas a little more respect and properly play my home and away teams. One pick I really liked this week was Pats -3.5 but jst realized again it's an away favorite. I think the better pick here is the Under. Seattle's defense always slow down the game at home and I don't think Wilson has the talent to get much done against a mediocre Pats D. Brady hasn't played many solid defenses yet so it might take him a little while to get comfortable. I think in the end he prevails but by no means will he run all over them. Trends show a low scoring game here and the matchup looks good for it as well. Thoughts?

fade the public on scoresandodds.com and count the cash

You really got me thinking scratchcapper, obviouslly the casinos/bookies make money because the public loses more than they win. If you can find a solid bets against the public you're bound to rake in money.

I live in NE and can tell you that the Pats are a tricky team. You just never know what you will get from Brady because he is so explosive. Although I have to say I would lean both ways the same. Take a look at Dallas and KC. I think those may be some solid plays.

I've also wondered why that isn't a more popular strategy scratch.  I hardly ever see anyone on this site do it.

If I were to use vegasinsider.com, and fade the public, surely it will have long-term benefits?

I'm from NE too but I agree with you, perfect instance was that bills game. Nothing in the 1st half and a ton in the 2nd...I just think with a strong D in seattle that the game will atleast be slowed down to a point where they can't light up the scoreboard. even if they do put up 30 I can't see Seattle getting much more than 10.

Agree.
@Duke
I use vegasodds myself but lets not mislead the public. Its always better to cap games first then take a peak so you are not deceived by what you see. Remember some people play multiple teams and parlays so it is easy said than done. I cap all my games first before I look at those percentages. Its faired well for me. Before I could cap games that was somewhat of a strategy I used to use. I wasn't very successful. Now I just read everything and match players and off and def etc. Its like a memorization game for me from the draft to the SB.
For Example I liked the young prospect Patrick Peterson last season. So when NE and PHI played Arizona I knew they would cover because he is a shutdown corner in his second year. What I did not know was they would click on all cylinders and win the game. Although I strongly believe NE would probably win the game next time around so a ML play would be smart. Maybe I'm going too deep but I think you get the point. Everyone should cap their own games or I guess you can tail someone on hot streak. Whatever makes you money.

[Quote: Originally Posted by scratchcapper69] fade the public on scoresandodds.com and count the cash [/Quote                                              

I just noticed that Sc. and odds now has a %age for the games.Whats the % age u look for to play the game? and have u had success in CFB as well?Thanks

You can't just fade the public and make money.  You need to analyze which games are likely to draw big money, like prime time games (Sunday night, MNF, Thursday) and the marquis Sunday afternoon matchup.  THOSE are the games to fade the public on, since the wagers are funneled in on one game.  When there's 7 games to pick from at 1pm on Sunday, the public will win many of those.  Sports books can give some back to the public when wagering money is diluted across several games.

Mind you, the public will also win SOME prime time games, but read the spread.  For example, this Monday night the public is on Denver but Vegas made San Diego a slight favorite to mess with people.  It will make some people think there's a reason SD is favored and limit the damage coming in on Denver.  I'm fairly confident the publicly backed Broncos will win on Monday, but the payout won't be too big a hit for sports books to pay out.  The sharps get crushed, the public gains some confidence to come back and bet more next week.  Win win for the books

I agree you can not follow trends alone and be successful for so many reasons but w/ ever changing players, coaches etc. league parity is at an all time high and we see so many trends broken time and time again.  I'm not saying completely ignore all trends either.....just don't get hung up on them. You have to take each game individually and best wagering advice I can give anybody is don't factor in strongly what just happened last week it's the quickest way to get crushed.  The key to success is understanding why the spread is set where it's at and go from there w/ breaking down the game.  Just don't get so hung up how much better a team appears on paper.....gotta see the game around the statistics as well. As far as Pats line goes you have to look at why that number is 3.5. It's obviously an appetizing number as the public is coming in hard on the Pats.  The way I see it is not only are they playing 3.5 on the road but doing so in one of if not the toughest venues in NFL for visitors where the Seachickens usually thrive and they have a legitimate defense to match Brady.  To get them plus points at home is usually money and let's look closer at the Pats are they playing that great to warrant being a favorite in Seattle??  I don't think they are.  To me this is a Seattle play or no play and I don't have the sack to play Seattle so I'm staying clear.  BOL to you.  .

Look for good "situations" and "spots". The past 3 prime time games we have had 3 home underdogs. New Orleans had not won a game,Drew Brees was one TD away from the record and the coach was in the building. If NO didnt need a win there then they never would.

Next we have the Jets. All kinds of criticism and people calling for Ryans job. They had been blown out the last few games and Monday night at home is the perfect spot for them to overachieve and give the best team in the NFL a run for their money.

The titans suck. I think they are the second worst team in the NFL. They have been blown out a lot this year. But people didn't see that all of these blowouts have been on the road. Their one home game at the beginning of the season they won. So coming home after a long trip,prime time game, ready to prove themselves against a bad travelling and over rated steelers team. Was a excellent spot to back them.


My point is just because one team is way better then the other, doesn't mean anything. Look for signs of when a team will come to play, or wont.