Ok folks, let's look at some things and put them into perspective. Let's dissect the coaching dichotomy of this Bears team. As opposed to all these broad stats n trends that are being spewed ad nauseum via social media and podcasts.
Let's start in week 11.
After week 10's loss to the Patriots, the Bears fired OC Shane Waldron. The dude was losing his players, and it became apparent that this was the wrong hire in the first place. What ensued was the promotion of pass coordinator Thomas Brown to OC. Supposedly a players coach, and he was a guy that did the job well. He called plays from the booth, this is more important than most will think.
Little did anyone know, that this gig would last just 3 weeks. New OC, calling plays from the booth. And as so many have mentioned from a broader view of Caleb/the offense in this time period, it was vs the Packers, Vikings, and Lions. Stout divisional competition. Here's what it looks like by the #"s in those games:
22 ppg, #13 epa per play, #15 success rate, #14 drop back epa, #8 rush epa.
The Bears went 3-0 ats, covering the line by a 3.83 average margin.
After the Bears inexplicable loss to the Lions in week 13, due to time management blunders by Coach Eberflus, he was fired.
So how are the Bears going to look moving forward? First off, Eberflus was basically the defensive coordinator with the Bears. As much of a dipshit as he was as a HC, the dude ran a solid defense.
Here's their defensive #'s from week 1 to week 13(12 games), and it includes the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary.
19.83 ppga, #9 epa per play allowed, #10 success rate, #7 drop back epa, #22 rush epa. *note, the Bears rush defense began to significantly fall when DT Andrew Billings got hurt in week 9 vs the Cardinals. A game that Montez Sweat didn't suit up, they got trampled*
So there's a lot to think about at this point, a lot of moving pieces. Thomas Brown got promoted to HC when Flus got fired. He's gone from pass coordinator, to OC, to HC in a 1 month span. On top of all this, his role as HC requires him to be on the field. He's still calling plays. Now some dudes prefer calling plays on the field, and are capable of doing it. But they're used to it, they're comfortable. Thomas Brown is no where near comfortable doing this in such a short span. We don't even know if he's qualified for the job in any way.
Since he's been HC, here are the Bears offensive #'s:
14 ppg, 25th epa per play, 25th success rate, 22nd dropback epa, and 32nd rush epa.
Let's not forget that the defense lost Eberflus, Eric Washington was promoted from d line coach to DC. This dude was a career d line coach, having only 2 years as a DC in 2018/2019 in Carolina. Where they were 19th and 31st in points against.
Here's the defensive #'s since he's been in charge:
34 ppga, 32nd epa per play allowed, 31st success rate, 31st dropback epa, 30th rush epa allowed.
That's all for now. Be careful what you step into.
I took the Seahawks -3(-105) for the 1H, 1 unit.
Good Luck
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