Someone discuss my Week 1 picks/leans with me

Take the rams, they will sack Wilson at least five times

Like the Vikings pick

slow here at work so I will join in on the fun:

live out here in san Francisco, I do think the Vikings are going to be a better team but I think 49ers will play with a little chip on shoulder on mnf. curious to see how offense is without harbaugh, maybe be able to spread ball around little more and cut colin loose. I have that game as a stay away.

cardinals play very tough at home that may be a good pick, I worry about losing bowles defensive coordinator, he really got the best out of a squad that lost a lot of play makers. and I wont put my money on palmer until I see how he plays first game.

seahawks -3 is tough. I think rams may have best o line and d line in the game. I think we as a public over rate how horrible seattle is on the road. think that game is a stay away also.

just for 2 cents my 2 picks for week 1:

green bay money line -235

Houston money line -120

Chargers are the Best week 1 play I have seen in many years

Lions Lost way too much on the D Line... +Long trip  +   Bolts look improved especially adding Gordon ....

Line is only -2/2.5   should be 6+ IMNHO

On paper, there is nothing about the 49ers that would make any sane sports bettor want to take them. Losing the HC and just about everyone on defense. Not to mention a decent chunk of the offense is now gone as well.

In contrast, the Vikings look to be a trendy pick to be one of those "surprise" teams. They have the return of AP, and Teddy seems to be growing into a franchise QB. They should be strong on defense as well.

Whenever a game seems this lopsided in the NFL, it usually doesn't go according to plan. Even though I am one of the ones that thinks the Vikings rip the 49ers, I will stay away. I can see 24-14 Niners pretty easily. Bills ML, Balty ML, Rams ML and most likely a large chunk of overs in Week 1 for me.

Buffalo is going to be in a frenzy for this game, and I think the Colts lack of an offensive line is going to be their downfall. Buffalo's D-line is the best in the NFL, and they are going to force Luck to get rid of the ball quickly. I don't see Indy's WR's doing enough to get open as quickly as they are going to need to. Buffalo will be a little suspect on offense, but I think they have enough weapons to win this.

Ever since the Colts got absolutely mauled by the Rams a couple of years ago, I like to fade them when they go against a physical defense. People are going to see Luck -2 and want to bet their house on it. Again, that usually doesn't go well in the NFL betting realm.

Broncos are almost in the exact same boat. Changing offenses and not upgrading the O-line is something that I am not willing to back in week 1. Too much emphasis on a running game will force the Broncos to play from behind in this game. Flacco always plays well when he is playing Denver. Too much stability for Balty, and not enough for Denver is the difference in this one. I have a Broncos future bet to win the Super Bowl, so I am still of the mindset that Denver is going to do great things this year, but I see them losing week 1.

Not playing the over in Buffalo or San Fran, but I like the overs in almost every other game in week 1. The books are still a little behind in putting up high numbers, and I will jump on it until they set it straight.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:


I am not really sold out on the Cardinals. They lost two important pieces with Bowles and Cromartie. Last season Bowles sent the most blitzes of all teams. He often switched between 3-4 and 4-3 to keep opposing o-lines busy and sent blitzes to put Peterson and Cromartie in man-to-man along with nickle formations in situations on QB pressure throws. They had a very good turnover margin and were outgained in a few games they have won. IMO they overachieved. I would want to wait how their defense plays to place any money on them. The Saints on the other side have adressed some important needs during the off-season, they are going to be better than last year.

The Cardinals are just fine. This is a team that finished 11-5 last year, with their starting QB out for half the season. They finished 10-6 the year prior.

The only two losses in the offseason were Cromartie and Dockett. Everyone else returns, with some new additions in Weatherspoon (ILB), Iupati (LG), Humpries (RT).

They lost Cromartie, but Jerraud Powers (the guy who Cromartie temporarily replaced) will be retaking his old spot. Remember, they played fierce defense in 2013 when they went 10-6, and that was the year their offense was struggling.

Since 2013, when Palmer or Stanton were in, they had a very specific strategy designed to set up 10-20-yard passes, with the occasional bomb. It's a very deliberate scheme that Arians has, and when Palmer is healthy, they will average around 24 ppg.

In this offseason, they signed terrific run-blocker at LG and drafted a new RB with their 2nd round pick, who's like a larger version of Ellington. The O-line is the best I have ever seen for a Cardinals team, and I've been watching them regularly since 1998.

As for the Saints, I agree that they improved. I see improvements at LG (they moved Lelito to LG, which is his natural position), and of course they acquired Unger (C) in the trade. I actually think their offense should improve, as they got a little predictable with Graham, and Graham wasn't exactly a run blocker. Their CB situation improved with Browner.

However, the Saints are running a 3-4 defense next year, and Arians is going to exploit the heck out of that. He will run 3 WR sets time after time after time. The Cardinals will switch John Brown, Floyd, and Fitzgerald around to confuse the defense, and to create mismatches.

One last thing - the last time Carson Palmer had this type of knee injury, he put up his best season on record (at the time) the following year. He is no slouch when it comes to rehab. I think he will surprise people this season.

Add all of that together, plus the away/home advantage, and I think the Cards are a safe pick at -2.5.

Oh, and one other factor - the Cards drafted the fastest guy in the draft to be a KR/PR, in JJ Nelson. He put up a 4.28 40-yard-dash.

While he's raw, I sincerely doubt he can be worse than Ted Ginn. Ginn's returns last season were real head-scratchers.

Oh, and one other factor - the Cards drafted the fastest guy in the draft to be a KR/PR, in JJ Nelson. He put up a 4.28 40-yard-dash.

While he's raw, I sincerely doubt he can be worse than Ted Ginn. Ginn's returns last season were real head-scratchers.

VIKES....RAMS