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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Someone make a logical argument for Baltimore

    StocktonShorts
    mac39bps
    Twist
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    StocktonShorts
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 12:57 PM ET #1

    Living nearby, I've seen every Ravens game this year. Made a killing last week fading them in SF. This team is awful, has been since week 1. 

    Defensively they're without their leader, and nobody has stepped into that role. A lot of guys are unsure out there.

    Offensively they have nothing outside of Steve Smith and he's playing with fractures in his back. No promises he's 80% let alone 100%. Their running game is a joke, their OLine is average, but exploitable, and forget all WRs outside of Smith. Theres no real punch to this offense at all.

    Arizona at home, off a loss, with a QB who is comparable to Flacco this year (if not better), a better run game, a better corp of WRs and a much better defense.

    9 is such a weird number, I guess its really just 7.5 with some movement instead of added juice, but weird number. 

    In my head it feels like Zona rolls by 20+, but something feels off here and I can't put my finger on it. 

    Someone please tell me what I'm missing and why anyone would think Baltimore has value tonight.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Living nearby, I've seen every Ravens game this year. Made a killing last week fading them in SF. This team is awful, has been since week 1. 

    Defensively they're without their leader, and nobody has stepped into that role. A lot of guys are unsure out there.

    Offensively they have nothing outside of Steve Smith and he's playing with fractures in his back. No promises he's 80% let alone 100%. Their running game is a joke, their OLine is average, but exploitable, and forget all WRs outside of Smith. Theres no real punch to this offense at all.

    Arizona at home, off a loss, with a QB who is comparable to Flacco this year (if not better), a better run game, a better corp of WRs and a much better defense.

    9 is such a weird number, I guess its really just 7.5 with some movement instead of added juice, but weird number. 

    In my head it feels like Zona rolls by 20+, but something feels off here and I can't put my finger on it. 

    Someone please tell me what I'm missing and why anyone would think Baltimore has value tonight.
     
    mac39bps
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 12:58 PM ET #2

    Ravens haven't lost by double digits in any of their games this year. 
    Reply
    Ravens haven't lost by double digits in any of their games this year. 
     
    Twist
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 12:58 PM ET #3

    They are 0-5 ats. This trend will end tonight.
    Reply
    They are 0-5 ats. This trend will end tonight.
     
    StocktonShorts
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:03 PM ET #4

    I appreciate it fellas, but the "they're due" argument is called gamblers fallacy, and thats not a phrase because its a good thing.
    Reply
    I appreciate it fellas, but the "they're due" argument is called gamblers fallacy, and thats not a phrase because its a good thing.
     
    BeenPrepping
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:06 PM ET #5

    I have no logical argument for Baltimore.

    Carson Palmer and David Johnson could end up biting you in the behind tho, a lot of turnovers, Johnson fumbles and settling for field goals.  The Cardinals need to give Ellington more touches

    I'm on ML Cardinals but I lost big on Cardinals vs the Steelers and the Rams this year so be cautious.


    Reply
    I have no logical argument for Baltimore.

    Carson Palmer and David Johnson could end up biting you in the behind tho, a lot of turnovers, Johnson fumbles and settling for field goals.  The Cardinals need to give Ellington more touches

    I'm on ML Cardinals but I lost big on Cardinals vs the Steelers and the Rams this year so be cautious.


     
    StocktonShorts
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:12 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by BeenPrepping:

    I have no logical argument for Baltimore.

    Carson Palmer and David Johnson could end up biting you in the behind tho, a lot of turnovers, Johnson fumbles and settling for field goals.  The Cardinals need to give Ellington more touches

    I'm on ML Cardinals but I lost big on Cardinals vs the Steelers and the Rams this year so be cautious.



    Thats where Im at too. The only reasons I see to take Baltimore is out of fear Arizona messes up. Basically just betting if Palmer is accurate tonight or not. 

    Is this a Zona or No Play decision only?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by BeenPrepping:

    I have no logical argument for Baltimore.

    Carson Palmer and David Johnson could end up biting you in the behind tho, a lot of turnovers, Johnson fumbles and settling for field goals.  The Cardinals need to give Ellington more touches

    I'm on ML Cardinals but I lost big on Cardinals vs the Steelers and the Rams this year so be cautious.



    Thats where Im at too. The only reasons I see to take Baltimore is out of fear Arizona messes up. Basically just betting if Palmer is accurate tonight or not. 

    Is this a Zona or No Play decision only?
     
    Dodgy
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:14 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by StocktonShorts:

    I appreciate it fellas, but the "they're due" argument is called gamblers fallacy, and thats not a phrase because its a good thing.

    Spotted the economics major...
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by StocktonShorts:

    I appreciate it fellas, but the "they're due" argument is called gamblers fallacy, and thats not a phrase because its a good thing.

    Spotted the economics major...
     
    TranslucentZ
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:16 PM ET #8

    I am going with the double result on Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals average the most points in the first half in the NFL this year. They are better in every way on paper and are at home. Obviously the Ravens are still a tough team but I think this is mathematically the best pick.
    Reply
    I am going with the double result on Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals average the most points in the first half in the NFL this year. They are better in every way on paper and are at home. Obviously the Ravens are still a tough team but I think this is mathematically the best pick.
     
    barneybeans
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:33 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by StocktonShorts:

    I appreciate it fellas, but the "they're due" argument is called gamblers fallacy, and thats not a phrase because its a good thing.
    In math it's called a regression to to the mean.
    The pen is mightier than the pigs
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by StocktonShorts:

    I appreciate it fellas, but the "they're due" argument is called gamblers fallacy, and thats not a phrase because its a good thing.
    In math it's called a regression to to the mean.
     
    thenerveagent
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:40 PM ET #10

    There aren't any! AZ by 18
    Reply
    There aren't any! AZ by 18
     
    ChOmP
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 1:42 PM ET #11

    Ravens could play similar to steelers this game..don't be shocked if they cover..that's a lot of points even for a backdoor cover

    I'm 99% sure the public will view the same thing .."baltimore sucks they lost to 49ers" yes that is true.. but..they also beat a Steelers team that beat the Cardinals.. 
    Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
    Reply
    Ravens could play similar to steelers this game..don't be shocked if they cover..that's a lot of points even for a backdoor cover

    I'm 99% sure the public will view the same thing .."baltimore sucks they lost to 49ers" yes that is true.. but..they also beat a Steelers team that beat the Cardinals.. 
     
    Wa6110
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 2:43 PM ET #12

    Oh nooooo... What should I bet tonight
    Reply
    Oh nooooo... What should I bet tonight
     
    MacTaylor
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 3:48 PM ET #13

    I am reading about Baltimore having back to back road games....I'm pretty sure Baltimore stayed out west after the Niners game so there was no back to back cross country travel. .In fact, expect Baltimore to be well rested spending the week together as a team in the California sun..
    Reply
    I am reading about Baltimore having back to back road games....I'm pretty sure Baltimore stayed out west after the Niners game so there was no back to back cross country travel. .In fact, expect Baltimore to be well rested spending the week together as a team in the California sun..
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 4:13 PM ET #14

    Baltimore flew back after the niner game
    Reply
    Baltimore flew back after the niner game
     
    Ravensfan2k3
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 4:20 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by Twist:

    They are 0-5 ats. This trend will end tonight.

    Yes
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Twist:

    They are 0-5 ats. This trend will end tonight.

    Yes
     
    Ravensfan2k3
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 4:21 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by MacTaylor:

    I am reading about Baltimore having back to back road games....I'm pretty sure Baltimore stayed out west after the Niners game so there was no back to back cross country travel. .In fact, expect Baltimore to be well rested spending the week together as a team in the California sun..

    Last time the Ravens stayed out west they played terrible, they went back home this time
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MacTaylor:

    I am reading about Baltimore having back to back road games....I'm pretty sure Baltimore stayed out west after the Niners game so there was no back to back cross country travel. .In fact, expect Baltimore to be well rested spending the week together as a team in the California sun..

    Last time the Ravens stayed out west they played terrible, they went back home this time
     
    rubberneck
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 4:27 PM ET #17

    zona 0-4 ats mondays
    Reply
    zona 0-4 ats mondays
     
    wmi799
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 4:43 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by rubberneck:

    zona 0-4 ats mondays

    So. Where any of those teams playing as well as this one?
    Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by rubberneck:

    zona 0-4 ats mondays

    So. Where any of those teams playing as well as this one?
     
    Wa6110
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 4:47 PM ET #19

    Az cover?
    Reply
    Az cover?
     
    composite
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 7:08 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by MacTaylor:

    I am reading about Baltimore having back to back road games....I'm pretty sure Baltimore stayed out west after the Niners game so there was no back to back cross country travel. .In fact, expect Baltimore to be well rested spending the week together as a team in the California sun..

    John Harbaugh said he was sending his team back home to Balt after the SF game and then flying back out to AZ.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MacTaylor:

    I am reading about Baltimore having back to back road games....I'm pretty sure Baltimore stayed out west after the Niners game so there was no back to back cross country travel. .In fact, expect Baltimore to be well rested spending the week together as a team in the California sun..

    John Harbaugh said he was sending his team back home to Balt after the SF game and then flying back out to AZ.
     
    tobby401
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 7:11 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by rubberneck:

    zona 0-4 ats mondays



    how many times did carson palmer play for them in mnf? ats to make a pick is a rookie move
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by rubberneck:

    zona 0-4 ats mondays



    how many times did carson palmer play for them in mnf? ats to make a pick is a rookie move
     
    Youngstunna23
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 7:42 PM ET #22

    Teams match up differently week to week and let's not forget they are still pros so they're good if they can click tonight I say ya take the points cause if you don't think AZ can't lose your wrong.
    Reply
    Teams match up differently week to week and let's not forget they are still pros so they're good if they can click tonight I say ya take the points cause if you don't think AZ can't lose your wrong.
     
     
    MacTaylor
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2015 - 9:26 PM ET #23

    Sorry, I was wrong..I really thought I read they stayed...BOL everyone...
    Reply
    Sorry, I was wrong..I really thought I read they stayed...BOL everyone...
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