Spread dictates the game

Afternoon Gents,

Looking at this game and dissecting every angle that I can think of points to a pretty evenly matched game albeit a 2.5 point spread... Offensive and Defensive lines, coaches, qbs, and last but not least the point spread are the 4 things I look at usually to determine my picks.  Offensive and Defensive lines are pretty damn evenly matched, slight edge to TB because of the fact that Whitworth is out, but the Rams D line might make up for that as far as both are compared as a whole. Coaching is damn near equal with slight edge to McVey IMO, Arenas gets more love because he has the GOAT on his team (rightly so). Qbs- no discussion there. So, that being broken down it seems that TB would be favored by what we would call the league minimum of a 3 point spread at home in a playoff game, right?  So why 2.5 point spread? Why not 3? The best qb to ever play the game, in a playoff spot, revenge game, at home not getting favored by less than a fg???? Sorry Vegas, I'm not biting. If you don't think for a second there's such thing as "bait lines" then stop gambling right now. Vegas is begging for you to take TB-period end of story.  That being said, the Rams front four can and will get to Brady, just like the Saints did and F with his head all game. In 20 plus years of gambling I have made some of the best money on 2.5 point spreads taking the dog. GL to everyone. Not claiming locks or any other BS like that. I gave you my breakdown, If I lose, I lose, onto the next game. Just giving some readers food for thought and the success I've experienced on so called "bait lines" especially in a scenario like this game here where the GOAT is not even favored by a FG at home..... 

Good points. Tough game to pick.

I'm not betting it but if I did, it would be Bucs -2.5.

I don't see a strong angle to bet the Rams UNLESS Brady's O line starters are sitting the game out or playing significantly injured. The O line health is really my main concern for the Bucs. I'd be betting heavily on them if it weren't for that.

But the line is a cheap 3 or an expensive 2.5

They are the same thing

I am discovering today something I never knew.  The absolute widespread misunderstanding of this concept.  Like a light bulb for me.

@vanzack

 I’ve been going off scoresandodds for twenty years and they’ve been -105 (2.5) to -118 (2.5) all week but won’t budge off 2.5?

GL with your play man