I copied and pasted a blog by Spreadsheet (username), which truly captures the dynamics of this game. I post this simply because people have helped me here, but the more people that disagree with me, and "Speadsheet" the more money I will make on special pointspead lines. Think about it guys, and you will come to the same agreement, as opposed to following the emotional need we have to love the Cinderella/underdog stories:
It comes down to this: Does Larry Fitzgerald have a Larry Fitzgerald game in the Super Bowl? If he doesn’t, the Steelers win. If he does . . . well, he won’t.
Pittsburgh can’t let the Cardinals play pitch and catch, and they won’t.
The Steelers will do what they did to the Patriots this season when they took away both the deep threat of Randy Moss (4 catches, 45 yards, zero TDs) and the underneath stuff to Wes Welker (similar numbers). The Cardinals have no one anywhere as good as Kevin Faulk for dumpoffs, and their offense will disintegrate.
Recall that when the Steelers went in to Foxboro and had their way with the Pats, New England was coming off a two-game stretch in which it had combined for 79 points. In the two games after the Steelers left town, the Pats put up a total of 73 more.
Simply put, the Steelers are death on teams geared to the pass (the only loss to a pass-oriented team this season was to Indianapolis).
The Cardinals will have no answer. Pittsburgh will win . . . and cover.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I copied and pasted a blog by Spreadsheet (username), which truly captures the dynamics of this game. I post this simply because people have helped me here, but the more people that disagree with me, and "Speadsheet" the more money I will make on special pointspead lines. Think about it guys, and you will come to the same agreement, as opposed to following the emotional need we have to love the Cinderella/underdog stories:
It comes down to this: Does Larry Fitzgerald have a Larry Fitzgerald game in the Super Bowl? If he doesn’t, the Steelers win. If he does . . . well, he won’t.
Pittsburgh can’t let the Cardinals play pitch and catch, and they won’t.
The Steelers will do what they did to the Patriots this season when they took away both the deep threat of Randy Moss (4 catches, 45 yards, zero TDs) and the underneath stuff to Wes Welker (similar numbers). The Cardinals have no one anywhere as good as Kevin Faulk for dumpoffs, and their offense will disintegrate.
Recall that when the Steelers went in to Foxboro and had their way with the Pats, New England was coming off a two-game stretch in which it had combined for 79 points. In the two games after the Steelers left town, the Pats put up a total of 73 more.
Simply put, the Steelers are death on teams geared to the pass (the only loss to a pass-oriented team this season was to Indianapolis).
The Cardinals will have no answer. Pittsburgh will win . . . and cover.
I also think that Arizona has arguably the worst defense to play in a Super Bowl. I understand that they are +11 in the playoffs, but the fact of the matter is Delhomme gift wrapped that game in Carolina, and although McNabb ended up with gawdy passing numbers, he missed opportunities ALL over the field, and he had ALL day to throw the football.
Arizona is not running the ball on the Steelers, because nobody has shown that ability all year, so it is safe to assume they don't give up close to 100 yds to Cards on the ground. Arizona will have to throw to succeed, and throw often. Arizona will move the ball at some points in the game, but I think the Steelers will keep them out of the end zone, give up 3's instead of 7's.
If the Steelers are +2 or better in the turnover margin, it should be a double digit win for the Steelers.
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That is a legitimate comparison....
I also think that Arizona has arguably the worst defense to play in a Super Bowl. I understand that they are +11 in the playoffs, but the fact of the matter is Delhomme gift wrapped that game in Carolina, and although McNabb ended up with gawdy passing numbers, he missed opportunities ALL over the field, and he had ALL day to throw the football.
Arizona is not running the ball on the Steelers, because nobody has shown that ability all year, so it is safe to assume they don't give up close to 100 yds to Cards on the ground. Arizona will have to throw to succeed, and throw often. Arizona will move the ball at some points in the game, but I think the Steelers will keep them out of the end zone, give up 3's instead of 7's.
If the Steelers are +2 or better in the turnover margin, it should be a double digit win for the Steelers.
Conjecture and analysis are two different animals. You make plenty of statements none of which compel me to bet the favorite. Here is hoping your bet is as minimalistic as your facts.
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Conjecture and analysis are two different animals. You make plenty of statements none of which compel me to bet the favorite. Here is hoping your bet is as minimalistic as your facts.
The Cards are NOT the worst defense to play in the SB, their passing defense during the regular season wasnt good, and even in the playoffs it was scary more than once.
Is Pitt a passing offense? That is the question. To me the answer is they are NOT a passing offense.
The Cards were number 16 against the run this year and nearly LAST against the pass, during the regular season.
Pitt was number 17 as a passing offense and number 23 rushing offense.
So how is Pitt going to rack up points against the weakness of the Cards defense if they dont have the ability to do so in general?
The other question nobody seems interested in answering is..how many teams like Arizona has Pitt played this year..teams in the top 5 passing with TOP skill players at 3 positions as receivers and a QB who has been here before, and will throw to anyone that gets open and knows how to read defenses better than maybe ANY NFL QB?
People throwing their cash on Pitt with their terrible offense and a defense who hasnt played a team like this arent wagering smart at all. This is one game where both teams have strengths, both have weaknesses and you have to decide which will come out stronger, the Pitt offense who is ranked number 22 last season against the Cards defense, or the Cards offense who is ranked 4th offensively and second passing against a Pitt defense who has played ONE team in TEN weeks that is similar, and gave up 300 yds and over 100 passer rating in MISERABLE conditions (SanDiego) with a QB who is not nearly as experienced and poised as Warner.
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The Cards are NOT the worst defense to play in the SB, their passing defense during the regular season wasnt good, and even in the playoffs it was scary more than once.
Is Pitt a passing offense? That is the question. To me the answer is they are NOT a passing offense.
The Cards were number 16 against the run this year and nearly LAST against the pass, during the regular season.
Pitt was number 17 as a passing offense and number 23 rushing offense.
So how is Pitt going to rack up points against the weakness of the Cards defense if they dont have the ability to do so in general?
The other question nobody seems interested in answering is..how many teams like Arizona has Pitt played this year..teams in the top 5 passing with TOP skill players at 3 positions as receivers and a QB who has been here before, and will throw to anyone that gets open and knows how to read defenses better than maybe ANY NFL QB?
People throwing their cash on Pitt with their terrible offense and a defense who hasnt played a team like this arent wagering smart at all. This is one game where both teams have strengths, both have weaknesses and you have to decide which will come out stronger, the Pitt offense who is ranked number 22 last season against the Cards defense, or the Cards offense who is ranked 4th offensively and second passing against a Pitt defense who has played ONE team in TEN weeks that is similar, and gave up 300 yds and over 100 passer rating in MISERABLE conditions (SanDiego) with a QB who is not nearly as experienced and poised as Warner.
nobody cares about regular season rankings in the post season period, let alone the Super Bowl. That is ridiculous, borderline assanine to bring up regular season rankings as the basis of your argument.
Pittsburgh is fully capable of moving the football, we aren't talking about the 2000 Raven offense here.
I give Arizona's offense all the credit to getting them where they are today, but that team also benfitted tremendously from the home crowd (who knew), and an inaccurate McNabb. Cardinal defense is opportunistic, and that's the best anyone can say about them.
This bye week clearly favors the Steelers, because the Cardinal passing game relies on rhythm, and time off is one of the biggest disruptors of rhythm.
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nobody cares about regular season rankings in the post season period, let alone the Super Bowl. That is ridiculous, borderline assanine to bring up regular season rankings as the basis of your argument.
Pittsburgh is fully capable of moving the football, we aren't talking about the 2000 Raven offense here.
I give Arizona's offense all the credit to getting them where they are today, but that team also benfitted tremendously from the home crowd (who knew), and an inaccurate McNabb. Cardinal defense is opportunistic, and that's the best anyone can say about them.
This bye week clearly favors the Steelers, because the Cardinal passing game relies on rhythm, and time off is one of the biggest disruptors of rhythm.
Lets look at post season then, I think it is funny how people want to say Pitt has a great offense now when they havent for quite a few years.
Pitt was ranked 22nd in 2008, 17th offensively in 2007, 7th in 2006. I guess that isnt a trend developing, that for the last three years they have experienced severe declines in their offensive output..ok, lets move on then.
Pitt is ranked 6th in the post season offensively, and that includes playing the 25th ranked defense in the league SanDiego in one of the games.
Pitt is ranked 5th in post season against the pass and really only played one game where they were tested and they didnt fare all that well, again in some pretty bad conditions.
Arizona is ranked 6th defensively in the post season, having played three VERY VERY good offenses. I consider Carolina, Atlanta and Philly as better offensive opponents than Baltimore and SanDiego.
I see very similar stats from the post-season compared to the regular season for both teams, Arizona is at the top offensively, in the middle defensively. Pitt is near the top defensively and in the middle offensively, but I guess we cannot compare numbers that are pretty much the same from regular to post season for some reason.
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Ok..
Lets look at post season then, I think it is funny how people want to say Pitt has a great offense now when they havent for quite a few years.
Pitt was ranked 22nd in 2008, 17th offensively in 2007, 7th in 2006. I guess that isnt a trend developing, that for the last three years they have experienced severe declines in their offensive output..ok, lets move on then.
Pitt is ranked 6th in the post season offensively, and that includes playing the 25th ranked defense in the league SanDiego in one of the games.
Pitt is ranked 5th in post season against the pass and really only played one game where they were tested and they didnt fare all that well, again in some pretty bad conditions.
Arizona is ranked 6th defensively in the post season, having played three VERY VERY good offenses. I consider Carolina, Atlanta and Philly as better offensive opponents than Baltimore and SanDiego.
I see very similar stats from the post-season compared to the regular season for both teams, Arizona is at the top offensively, in the middle defensively. Pitt is near the top defensively and in the middle offensively, but I guess we cannot compare numbers that are pretty much the same from regular to post season for some reason.
I copied and pasted a blog by Spreadsheet (username), which truly captures the dynamics of this game. I post this simply because people have helped me here, but the more people that disagree with me, and "Speadsheet" the more money I will make on special pointspead lines. Think about it guys, and you will come to the same agreement, as opposed to following the emotional need we have to love the Cinderella/underdog stories:
It comes down to this: Does Larry Fitzgerald have a Larry Fitzgerald game in the Super Bowl? If he doesn’t, the Steelers win. If he does . . . well, he won’t.
Pittsburgh can’t let the Cardinals play pitch and catch, and they won’t.
The Steelers will do what they did to the Patriots this season when they took away both the deep threat of Randy Moss (4 catches, 45 yards, zero TDs) and the underneath stuff to Wes Welker (similar numbers). The Cardinals have no one anywhere as good as Kevin Faulk for dumpoffs, and their offense will disintegrate.
Recall that when the Steelers went in to Foxboro and had their way with the Pats, New England was coming off a two-game stretch in which it had combined for 79 points. In the two games after the Steelers left town, the Pats put up a total of 73 more.
Simply put, the Steelers are death on teams geared to the pass (the only loss to a pass-oriented team this season was to Indianapolis).
The Cardinals will have no answer. Pittsburgh will win . . . and cover.
Yeah they beat the Patriots without some guy named Brady. Something in past years they've never been able to do. Big Deal.
Manning beat them in Pitt with no running game. Pitt is soooo overrated, wondering if Big Ben will eclipse his 22 qb rating in his first superbowl and maybe get his 1st td pass as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by renroh123:
I copied and pasted a blog by Spreadsheet (username), which truly captures the dynamics of this game. I post this simply because people have helped me here, but the more people that disagree with me, and "Speadsheet" the more money I will make on special pointspead lines. Think about it guys, and you will come to the same agreement, as opposed to following the emotional need we have to love the Cinderella/underdog stories:
It comes down to this: Does Larry Fitzgerald have a Larry Fitzgerald game in the Super Bowl? If he doesn’t, the Steelers win. If he does . . . well, he won’t.
Pittsburgh can’t let the Cardinals play pitch and catch, and they won’t.
The Steelers will do what they did to the Patriots this season when they took away both the deep threat of Randy Moss (4 catches, 45 yards, zero TDs) and the underneath stuff to Wes Welker (similar numbers). The Cardinals have no one anywhere as good as Kevin Faulk for dumpoffs, and their offense will disintegrate.
Recall that when the Steelers went in to Foxboro and had their way with the Pats, New England was coming off a two-game stretch in which it had combined for 79 points. In the two games after the Steelers left town, the Pats put up a total of 73 more.
Simply put, the Steelers are death on teams geared to the pass (the only loss to a pass-oriented team this season was to Indianapolis).
The Cardinals will have no answer. Pittsburgh will win . . . and cover.
Yeah they beat the Patriots without some guy named Brady. Something in past years they've never been able to do. Big Deal.
Manning beat them in Pitt with no running game. Pitt is soooo overrated, wondering if Big Ben will eclipse his 22 qb rating in his first superbowl and maybe get his 1st td pass as well.
In all honesty, I think both sides have an equal shot to win this contest. This game will be close, and it's going down to the wire. But the Whisenhunt-Grimm ex-coach factor is stronger than anything else I've seen posted. The only way the Steelers cover is if the officials have money on them again.
But all kidding aside, either team can win what should be a great matchup. I'm taking the Cardinals +7.5. If I lose, I'll still have a shot at first place in the wagerline playoff contest... but that's just me.
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In all honesty, I think both sides have an equal shot to win this contest. This game will be close, and it's going down to the wire. But the Whisenhunt-Grimm ex-coach factor is stronger than anything else I've seen posted. The only way the Steelers cover is if the officials have money on them again.
But all kidding aside, either team can win what should be a great matchup. I'm taking the Cardinals +7.5. If I lose, I'll still have a shot at first place in the wagerline playoff contest... but that's just me.
This is perhaps the most intelligent post that has been created on the Super Bowl topic. And after the game is over, after the dust settles, those of you that disagree will come to realize that it's the truth. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Defense wins championships. There's a reason why that saying exists. And people forget this often. The Steelers will do the same thing they did to Seattle three years ago. They will run the ball and play D. And they will win. I dont know if they'll cover, but I'm not going to bet against it. But I do know that betting on a team getting 7 is not smart when you really don't think they will win. "I know they'll get beat, but I think they'll cover seven."
Let me say it again. The Steelers will do the same thing that they did to Seattle. They will run the ball and play defense. Willie may not go wild and rack up 150 (but then again he may), but the run will account for most of their success on offense. And on defense... same old story.
Go ahead and bet Arizona. I wont see you at the bank.
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This is perhaps the most intelligent post that has been created on the Super Bowl topic. And after the game is over, after the dust settles, those of you that disagree will come to realize that it's the truth. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Defense wins championships. There's a reason why that saying exists. And people forget this often. The Steelers will do the same thing they did to Seattle three years ago. They will run the ball and play D. And they will win. I dont know if they'll cover, but I'm not going to bet against it. But I do know that betting on a team getting 7 is not smart when you really don't think they will win. "I know they'll get beat, but I think they'll cover seven."
Let me say it again. The Steelers will do the same thing that they did to Seattle. They will run the ball and play defense. Willie may not go wild and rack up 150 (but then again he may), but the run will account for most of their success on offense. And on defense... same old story.
Go ahead and bet Arizona. I wont see you at the bank.
You failed to mention Edgerin James, who his having a great season this year........that's a big hole in your analysis. Pitt will not stop this offense, and won't be able to keep up with them in scoring. Plain and simple.
Arizona moneyline is the play here.
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You failed to mention Edgerin James, who his having a great season this year........that's a big hole in your analysis. Pitt will not stop this offense, and won't be able to keep up with them in scoring. Plain and simple.
This is perhaps the most intelligent post that has been created on the Super Bowl topic. And after the game is over, after the dust settles, those of you that disagree will come to realize that it's the truth. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Defense wins championships. There's a reason why that saying exists. And people forget this often. The Steelers will do the same thing they did to Seattle three years ago. They will run the ball and play D. And they will win. I dont know if they'll cover, but I'm not going to bet against it. But I do know that betting on a team getting 7 is not smart when you really don't think they will win. "I know they'll get beat, but I think they'll cover seven."
Let me say it again. The Steelers will do the same thing that they did to Seattle. They will run the ball and play defense. Willie may not go wild and rack up 150 (but then again he may), but the run will account for most of their success on offense. And on defense... same old story.
Go ahead and bet Arizona. I wont see you at the bank.
Are the same refs working this game?
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Quote Originally Posted by SteelCash:
This is perhaps the most intelligent post that has been created on the Super Bowl topic. And after the game is over, after the dust settles, those of you that disagree will come to realize that it's the truth. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Defense wins championships. There's a reason why that saying exists. And people forget this often. The Steelers will do the same thing they did to Seattle three years ago. They will run the ball and play D. And they will win. I dont know if they'll cover, but I'm not going to bet against it. But I do know that betting on a team getting 7 is not smart when you really don't think they will win. "I know they'll get beat, but I think they'll cover seven."
Let me say it again. The Steelers will do the same thing that they did to Seattle. They will run the ball and play defense. Willie may not go wild and rack up 150 (but then again he may), but the run will account for most of their success on offense. And on defense... same old story.
Go ahead and bet Arizona. I wont see you at the bank.
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