Steelers/Colts

15-7 (+22.8)

Colts+1 +105 x4..... I've spent a few hours on this game today, And I watch more Steeler games than any other team in the NFL because Pittsburgh is in my market, in week one I actually snowballed them and won, I faded them last week and it cost me, and I'm going to fade them again today though, I don't care for Mike Tomlin to be a favorite and I don't care for him a lot more when he's a favorite on the road, yeah I get it the colts defense is banged up today, and this is supposed to be a close game probably a one score game which Tomlin is great at but so are the colts.... Since 2007, Pittsburgh is one and the colts or two in one score game wins...

I think I would have been on the Steelers in this game if last week's game would have been closer and tougher as per the Steelers track record, they tend to have let down games after success and they just bitch slapped the chargers last week.... I see a let down game... And why is this a one point spread? This should easily be a three-point spread for the Steelers with the colts defense so banged up.... And Richardson playing like he is... Yeah ,this spread stinks....

The colts have a great offensive line, and the Steelers have a great pass rush, the thing about Richardson, is he plays better under some duress, in other words when he ain't got time to think he does pretty damn good, the colts also have a pretty good pass rush too, Fields has been pretty well protected I don't think it's going to work as well today.... When Steelers are down Warren at running back so it's going to be Harris.... The colts has been gashed on the ground so Pittsburgh will get their yards but I noticed one thing last week they actually let fields start tossing the ball around more than the first two games and I think that's probably what they're going to come in here and try to do today because the colts most injuries on the defense is in the secondary I don't trust Fields to do this they've been using him as a game manager and I suspect today they're going to let him fire it away..... Not good....

The colts got Josh Downs back last week and him and Richardson have good chemistry I think that's going to be a big difference maker with Richardson today... I think the Steelers come in and load the box to force him to throw and I think he's going to do all right today with Downs back, and the Steelers pass defense has had some blown coverages this year and with the good colts receivers they may have some damn problems....The colts were a playoff team last year and cannot afford to go one and three, I expect the colts to bring more effort today and I expect the Steelers to play down as per the trend with the Steelers, this is a letdown game for

them....

Good write.

yes informative write up thanks 

good luck on the pick 

@JUSTWINBABY61

 I read this after I already bet Pittsburgh 

Hard to predict a regression, or as you say a "letdown." Probably the hardest prediciton to do.

I saw major portions of both games last week. As much as I am skeptical of "last game/recency bias" I still noticed how LAC had perfect blocking schemes, had Watt double teamed, and still Pitt found a way to make big plays on defense, when it counted. Indy will be better coached than that?

Indy benefited from a lot of luck to get their first W--PI penalties, and the score does no reflect how close they were to losing that game.

I think Pitt is the ugliest 3-0 team out there, and could wind up the ugliest 4-0 team. I try to focus on what they're doing right out there, and it just seems like....just enough. I think they dictate pace, and by doing so, they create their good fortune.

It's possible Indy could get exlosive plays and thereby get out of the pace and control that Pitt is establishing.....

I don't see how the line is telling us anything. It's basically a pick em game, and it comes down to line of scrimmage control, making Indy predictable and manageable.

@JUSTWINBABY61

Great write up and I totally agree with your takes on this spot and yes, the line stinks to high heaven. 

Wow. Game over.

Pitt not made to catch up two TDs.

Congrats on having the right feel on the game.

Quality Ink 

In Flacco we trust 

Getting 'Flacco-ed'

Urban dictionary: When Joe Flacco returns to action to replace another QB. Flacco becomes Joe Montana for one game. After that game, Flacco returns to his normal self and loses most of his starts.