NFL YTD: 6-1 +11.00 units
San Diego Charger v Philadelphia Eagles over 54 -110 (local)
I wanted to get this one in early because I do anticipate it climbing as we approach kick-off perhaps to as high as 57. My local still has Eagles -7.5 and 54 on the total. I see some shops already at 55 on this total with the side as high as 9.5 at some spots. However, as I will explain later, my biggest edge is to the over which is why I have locked this in already at this price.
I handicapped this game at 61 points, similar to the handicap I had for the Eagles/Redskins game (off by one point) and for many of the same reasons.
Chip Kelly's new offense is amazing and it looks as though he has all the right personnel in place to carry it out. As an Eagles fan I have never been more excited about the team I support.
This Eagles team ran an amazing 74 plays from scrimmage. Many of them were in the first half when they had Washington's defense on the field a lot and were running them to death. This team is going to make sure that the defenses they play against are going to have to be conditioned to tolerate this quick strike offense.
McCoy had an incredible game for the Eagles last week rushing for 184 yards. As a team, the Eagles rushed for 263 total years.
The Chargers blew a huge lead last week and it can be said that the Eagles offense is much more dynamic than the Texans offense. Consider that Schaub threw for 346 years on 34/45 passing. This Eagle offense can utilize the pass just as much as it can utilize the run and I fear for the Charger defense this week. They allowed 449 yards of total offense to Houston and I can only imagine what they will allow v a much more dynamic Eagle offense. Given the short week as well, the Chargers will have one less day to review tape.
I handicap the Eagles to score a lot of points again this week but where Chip won't falter again is taking his foot off the throttle. He did that after opening up a huge 33-7 lead and that allowed the Redskins to get back into the game. I don't anticipate that happening again.
Admittedly, RG3 was rusty but the Eagle defense wont be so fortunate against a less rusty Rivers. Despite his so-so numbers last wee against Houston, he is still a quality quarterback but one who simply makes to many wrong reads. He did throw for 4 TDs and a pick against a pretty decent Houston defense.
The Eagles averaged 6 yards per play. Their defense averaged 6.2 yards per play against, much of it when the Redskins went pass happy in the second half. San Diego averaged 5 years per play last week and their defense allowed 5.2 yerds per play. If those numbers remain consistent again this week we will see a lot of first downs.
What Kelly's offense does for the Eagles is strike quickly. This allows his team to pull off a ton of plays but it also gives the ball back to the opponents quickly giving them more chances than normal. As a result, with what I anticipate to be a game with a lot of clock stoppages and a lot of plays being run, this total looks again to go over.
I will continue to play over in Eagles games UNTIL the odds makers make the adjustment that I just don't think is there yet.
The Eagles have been a week 2 over team of late (5-0 over last 5 seasons in week 2) as have the Chargers (7-0 over week 2 last 7 season).
Finally some interesting relevant trends taken into consideration (my handicapping models factor 80% statistical analysis and 20% current form, situation and trend data)
San Diego:
- Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chargers 6-2 "over" last 8 games as underdogs of 6 or more points.
- Over is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 38-15-4 in Chargers last 57 road games. (72% over)
- Over is 15-6 in Chargers last 21 games in September.
- Over is 5-2 in Chargers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
- Chargers have played to a 10-1 "over" their last 11 when playing the first of back to back road games. (91%)
Philadelphia:
- Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.
- Over is 6-0 in the Eagles last 6 home games as non-conference favorites of 3 or more points.
- Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in Week 2 with those games averaging just over 65 total (combined) points scored.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Eagles last 11 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Eagles last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4-1 in Eagles last 14 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Lastly, west coast teams playing a 1pm start in the Eastern time zone have been profitable when betting overs the last few seasons.
As I noted earlier, statistically, this game has a power rating of 61 according to my handicap. (I make the Eagles 35-26 winners) -- not enough of an edge for the side, but plenty enough for my total.
OVER 54 -110 TO WIN 2 UNITS
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