Ladies and Gentlemen,
It has been a somewhat uneven year for me. I swept the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship games 2 weeks ago going with both favorites Denver -5 and Seattle -3.5
I have had Seattle futured since early December and stand to make a tidy profit if they win the super bowl. Even if Denver wins I will profit as I have layed/sold some of my Seattle +300 bet.
I thought Seattle would beat Denver in the Super Bowl months ago and I don’t’ see any reasons why that will change now.
Denver has played Baltimore, Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Jacksonville, Indi (L), Washington, San Diego, KC, New England (L), KC, Tennessee, San Diego (L), Houston, Oakland. In the playoffs they have played San Diego and New England. That is a terribly easy schedule
Seattle has played Carolina, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Houston, Indi(L), Tennessee, Arizona, St Louis, Tampa, Atlanta, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Fran(L), Giants, Arizona(L), St Louis. In the playoffs they have played New Orleans and San Fran. Playing San Fran 3 times, Carolina, New Orleans twice, and Arizona is not easy. Do not discount strength of schedule
Numbers taken from various threads
We have the #1 offense vs. #1 defense. That has happened 4 other times and the defense has won 3 of the 4 times
A team with a defense ranked 20th or worst has won the super bowl twice. EVER
The top 7 offenses in NFL history have not won the Super Bowl
18 top ranked offenses have played in the super bowl and their record is 10-8
15 top ranked defenses have played in the super bowl and their record is 12-3
Stats:
Seattle 5.8 ypl, Denver gives up 5.5 ypl
Denver 6.4 ypl, Seattle gives up 4.8 ypl
Seattle runs at 4.3 ypr, Denver gives up 3.9 ypr
Denver runs at 4.0 ypr, Seattle gives up 4.0
Seattle passes at 12.1 yps, Denver gives up 11.3 yps
Denver passes at 11.7, Seattle gives up only 9.2
What those stats show is that even though Denver’s offense is statistically the best ever, they don’t even throw for as many yards per attempt as seattle. Denver will dink and dunk its way down the field. But Seattle’s pass defense is one of the best ever giving up 9.2 yards per attempt.
I give the coaching advantage to Seattle
Health
Denver is injured while Seattle is the healthiest they have been. Ryan Clady gone since early in the year. Von Miller gone, safety Rahim Moore gone, Corner Chris Harris gone, Kevin Vickerson, Derek Wolfe up front also gone. Denver is pushing fifth rounder Malik Jackson and first rounder Sylvester Williams into the starting lineup. Hell, Jeremy Mincey who was cut by the Jaguars, yes the Jaguars, saw 16 snaps in the AFC Championship game. Denver is desperate up front and I have no idea how they are going to stop Seattle’s offense.
Seattle is the healthiest they have been. Do not discount Percy. What he did in less than a half vs New Orelans was remarkable
Weather favors Seattle. Outdoors in mild temperature. Seattle has already pitched a shutout at the Meadowlands this year shutting out the Giants.
I am surprised that Denver is favored. But when you take into account the public loves offense and Peyton, I somewhat understand.
Seattle +2 8 units
2 team parlay of Seattle +2 Under 48 1 unit
7 point tease of Seattle +2 Under 55 1 unit
Prediction Seattle 27 Denver 17 lean under
Wilson for MVP
BOL brother, with ya, thanks for all this season, always one of my favorites!!
Hot Forum Topics
