I lost in the conf champ week with the Ravens who self destructed with turnovers. I'll try to end what has been a strong season with a winning Super Bowl pick.
1* Chiefs +2
The trickiest part of this pick is when to bet. If I thought this line would move up to +3, I'd wait but based on movement so far, 2 may be where it rests.
In all my years of betting Super Bowls, the one strategy that seems to work is to play the team with the best defense. In this game, both defenses are good and it's very close. But KC's defense is peaking right now. The Chiefs held a strong Miami offense to only 7 and pretty much shut down the Ravens. Andy Reid's success when having extra time to prepare is well documented. And, the quarterback matchup is a total mismatch. Mahomes is the best in the game and Purdy has been shaky in the post-season and his success has a lot to do with a brilliant receiving corps. SF struggled to get by a Green Bay team that was only 9-8 in the regular season. The 49ers looked terrible in the first half versus Detroit and probably wouldn't be here if Dan Campbell wasn't so reckless with his decisions. Besides, Taylor Swift apparently rules the world.
It is almost impossible to repeat in the NFL and this year's Chiefs team hasn't been that good for most of the year. But they are very good right now and seem to be peaking after playing a tough schedule all year. The Chiefs have just beaten the Bills and the Ravens while the 49ers only had the Packers and Lions. The Chiefs are a dynasty and I think they win again. And, while two points isn't three, it is a nice little cushion in a close game. If the line moves up to 3, I may come back and add to the bet.
I lost in the conf champ week with the Ravens who self destructed with turnovers. I'll try to end what has been a strong season with a winning Super Bowl pick.
1* Chiefs +2
The trickiest part of this pick is when to bet. If I thought this line would move up to +3, I'd wait but based on movement so far, 2 may be where it rests.
In all my years of betting Super Bowls, the one strategy that seems to work is to play the team with the best defense. In this game, both defenses are good and it's very close. But KC's defense is peaking right now. The Chiefs held a strong Miami offense to only 7 and pretty much shut down the Ravens. Andy Reid's success when having extra time to prepare is well documented. And, the quarterback matchup is a total mismatch. Mahomes is the best in the game and Purdy has been shaky in the post-season and his success has a lot to do with a brilliant receiving corps. SF struggled to get by a Green Bay team that was only 9-8 in the regular season. The 49ers looked terrible in the first half versus Detroit and probably wouldn't be here if Dan Campbell wasn't so reckless with his decisions. Besides, Taylor Swift apparently rules the world.
It is almost impossible to repeat in the NFL and this year's Chiefs team hasn't been that good for most of the year. But they are very good right now and seem to be peaking after playing a tough schedule all year. The Chiefs have just beaten the Bills and the Ravens while the 49ers only had the Packers and Lions. The Chiefs are a dynasty and I think they win again. And, while two points isn't three, it is a nice little cushion in a close game. If the line moves up to 3, I may come back and add to the bet.
Chiefs have a bad run defense and are particularly weak against zone runs. That’s the 49ers bread and butter. If they can be successful there, they will be able to use their best in league playaction pass game.
The 49ers defense is only good in reputation and if you look at basic season long stats (mostly). They are a bad run defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs and have some of the least creative soft zone coverages. They are vanilla in pass rush. That said the Chiefs will be the least talented offense the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, but they have the best coach and a GOAT tier player at QB.
If you strictly want the better defense, it’s the Chiefs… especially with Spags having time to create a gameplan. The 49ers offense can have success against them because they are very good though. The 49ers may be able to get away with vanilla defensive scheming in this game, moreso than other matchups, because the Chiefs lack playmakers and the 49ers still have All Pro’s, or near APs, at every level of the defense.
Chiefs have a bad run defense and are particularly weak against zone runs. That’s the 49ers bread and butter. If they can be successful there, they will be able to use their best in league playaction pass game.
The 49ers defense is only good in reputation and if you look at basic season long stats (mostly). They are a bad run defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs and have some of the least creative soft zone coverages. They are vanilla in pass rush. That said the Chiefs will be the least talented offense the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, but they have the best coach and a GOAT tier player at QB.
If you strictly want the better defense, it’s the Chiefs… especially with Spags having time to create a gameplan. The 49ers offense can have success against them because they are very good though. The 49ers may be able to get away with vanilla defensive scheming in this game, moreso than other matchups, because the Chiefs lack playmakers and the 49ers still have All Pro’s, or near APs, at every level of the defense.
Chiefs have a bad run defense and are particularly weak against zone runs. That’s the 49ers bread and butter. If they can be successful there, they will be able to use their best in league playaction pass game. The 49ers defense is only good in reputation and if you look at basic season long stats (mostly). They are a bad run defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs and have some of the least creative soft zone coverages. They are vanilla in pass rush. That said the Chiefs will be the least talented offense the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, but they have the best coach and a GOAT tier player at QB. If you strictly want the better defense, it’s the Chiefs… especially with Spags having time to create a gameplan. The 49ers offense can have success against them because they are very good though. The 49ers may be able to get away with vanilla defensive scheming in this game, moreso than other matchups, because the Chiefs lack playmakers and the 49ers still have All Pro’s, or near APs, at every level of the defense.
I agree Defense wins . I don't believe even with preparation you can fix run defense. Bad run defense to me equals just not tuff in the trenches. Playaction will be a BIG Factor in this Game. 49ers might hit a few Home Runs
Chiefs have a bad run defense and are particularly weak against zone runs. That’s the 49ers bread and butter. If they can be successful there, they will be able to use their best in league playaction pass game. The 49ers defense is only good in reputation and if you look at basic season long stats (mostly). They are a bad run defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs and have some of the least creative soft zone coverages. They are vanilla in pass rush. That said the Chiefs will be the least talented offense the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, but they have the best coach and a GOAT tier player at QB. If you strictly want the better defense, it’s the Chiefs… especially with Spags having time to create a gameplan. The 49ers offense can have success against them because they are very good though. The 49ers may be able to get away with vanilla defensive scheming in this game, moreso than other matchups, because the Chiefs lack playmakers and the 49ers still have All Pro’s, or near APs, at every level of the defense.
I agree Defense wins . I don't believe even with preparation you can fix run defense. Bad run defense to me equals just not tuff in the trenches. Playaction will be a BIG Factor in this Game. 49ers might hit a few Home Runs
I like your post as you made some valid points . But knocking the 9ers for beating two young scrappy teams in Green Bay and Detroit ? Sure they looked vulnerable but still got the win. I can make a case why give flowers to KC for beating a frozen Miami track speed team that never got off the plane, a buffalo team ravaged by injuries that naturally concedes to the chiefs in the playoffs, and John Harbaugh who my little nephew who plays madden could’ve facilitated a better game plan. Not knocking you just some food for thought as this 49er team imo matches up with KC.
I like your post as you made some valid points . But knocking the 9ers for beating two young scrappy teams in Green Bay and Detroit ? Sure they looked vulnerable but still got the win. I can make a case why give flowers to KC for beating a frozen Miami track speed team that never got off the plane, a buffalo team ravaged by injuries that naturally concedes to the chiefs in the playoffs, and John Harbaugh who my little nephew who plays madden could’ve facilitated a better game plan. Not knocking you just some food for thought as this 49er team imo matches up with KC.
I almost never bet props but I have one that is compelling:
ADD:
1/2* Purdy OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125)
Purdy threw one pick vs Detroit and while he had none vs Green Bay that is very misleading as the Packers dropped THREE interceptions including two that were right in the DB's hands. The Spagnuolo defense is aggressive which can lead to turnovers. If SF is playing from behind, I think it is very likely Purdy presses.
I almost never bet props but I have one that is compelling:
ADD:
1/2* Purdy OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125)
Purdy threw one pick vs Detroit and while he had none vs Green Bay that is very misleading as the Packers dropped THREE interceptions including two that were right in the DB's hands. The Spagnuolo defense is aggressive which can lead to turnovers. If SF is playing from behind, I think it is very likely Purdy presses.
I almost never bet props but I have one that is compelling: ADD:1/2* Purdy OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125) Purdy threw one pick vs Detroit and while he had none vs Green Bay that is very misleading as the Packers dropped THREE interceptions including two that were right in the DB's hands. The Spagnuolo defense is aggressive which can lead to turnovers. If SF is playing from behind, I think it is very likely Purdy presses.
i love how almost ints are a stat for purdy but no1 else. How many times do you see db’s drop ints??? Happens all the time, that’s why they play defense.
I almost never bet props but I have one that is compelling: ADD:1/2* Purdy OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125) Purdy threw one pick vs Detroit and while he had none vs Green Bay that is very misleading as the Packers dropped THREE interceptions including two that were right in the DB's hands. The Spagnuolo defense is aggressive which can lead to turnovers. If SF is playing from behind, I think it is very likely Purdy presses.
i love how almost ints are a stat for purdy but no1 else. How many times do you see db’s drop ints??? Happens all the time, that’s why they play defense.
Chiefs have a bad run defense and are particularly weak against zone runs. That’s the 49ers bread and butter. If they can be successful there, they will be able to use their best in league playaction pass game. The 49ers defense is only good in reputation and if you look at basic season long stats (mostly). They are a bad run defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs and have some of the least creative soft zone coverages. They are vanilla in pass rush. That said the Chiefs will be the least talented offense the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, but they have the best coach and a GOAT tier player at QB. If you strictly want the better defense, it’s the Chiefs… especially with Spags having time to create a gameplan. The 49ers offense can have success against them because they are very good though. The 49ers may be able to get away with vanilla defensive scheming in this game, moreso than other matchups, because the Chiefs lack playmakers and the 49ers still have All Pro’s, or near APs, at every level of the defense.
Is Brock Purdy going to throw a pass? Will one get intercepted?
Chiefs have a bad run defense and are particularly weak against zone runs. That’s the 49ers bread and butter. If they can be successful there, they will be able to use their best in league playaction pass game. The 49ers defense is only good in reputation and if you look at basic season long stats (mostly). They are a bad run defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd downs and have some of the least creative soft zone coverages. They are vanilla in pass rush. That said the Chiefs will be the least talented offense the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, but they have the best coach and a GOAT tier player at QB. If you strictly want the better defense, it’s the Chiefs… especially with Spags having time to create a gameplan. The 49ers offense can have success against them because they are very good though. The 49ers may be able to get away with vanilla defensive scheming in this game, moreso than other matchups, because the Chiefs lack playmakers and the 49ers still have All Pro’s, or near APs, at every level of the defense.
Is Brock Purdy going to throw a pass? Will one get intercepted?
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