YTD 15-10 +4.5 units
2* 3-2 +1.5 units
1* 12-8 +3.0 units
The Super Bowl normally isn't a great place for a big play because there are no secrets and the line is based on massive betting action. But I think this year's game is a massive opportunity:
2* Eagles + 1 1/2
1) Has there ever been a Super Bowl team that has been outgained on the season? That's Kansas City this year. It is virtually impossible to go 17-2 and be minus yardage but they are. Eventually, you have to think that catches up to them.
2) The Eagles have a rare statistical sweep. They have more yards per play on both runs and passes than KC and the Eagles defense likewise gives up fewer yards per play on runs and passes.
3) KC's strength is turnover margin as they virtually never turn the ball over. But the Eagles are also sensational at avoiding turnovers.
4) Eagles are 13-7 ATS while Chiefs are 9-10.
5) Chiefs have benefited from numerous bad referee calls in their favor. If it happens again the league's credibility is in danger. I think that will weigh on the officiating crew.
6) Lone negative: Chiefs have the coaching advantage and Reid is incredible with extra time to prepare but every statistical factor in this game points to the underdog. That's a big play.
Opinion only:
Under 48 1/2 (Both teams' strength is the defense but the playoffs have seen lots of scoring so I can't make this a full play)
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