Super Bowl System

There is a thread originally posted by Dawniewags (now banned) regarding a system that helps revealing frauds in the playoffs. The thread was posted on 11/06/2010. The system uses total yards - total defense yards, then divided by the 16 games. Anyone with an average of at least +35 yards generally does well in the playoffs. It also mentions the t/o ration being important also. Anyways here are the numbers...they kind of coincide with playoff seeds.

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO

Denver play SF in the SB ?

I would like to see how many of Denver's TO's came in the first few weeks with the team figuring out the Payton O.

Also someone posted a site for NFL stats a while ago...any idea what it is?
I want scoring D rankings and to breakdown common opponents and strength of schedule...

I like NE / SEA, but still need to evaluate.

10 turnovers first 5 weeks, but only 3 interceptions by manning all in the atlanta game, the rest were fumbles and only one by manning.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

has great defensive stats

YES that's the system all though last years neither team qualified but once again defense wins championships prevailed

teams that meet the requirements you can eliminate every team with a rookie QB so remove Seattle , 49ers, colts redskins ,

remove teams who lost to tampa bay in season none ever won a superbowl except saints who decided to go bench final 3 games of year

Vikings lost to Tampa at home on thursday night

Falcons got hammered at Home by tamapa and they played starters all 4 quarters

they both will be exiting playoffs again

also sos comes intoplay the teams that got in on a losers schedule will go bye bye

two of them are Denver and atalanta

also NO superbowl loser ever got back to bowl in following year (only the bills pulled it off)

the bowl losers who went kaboom next year are from earliest
i can remember  ,Rams   Panthers, Eagles, Cardinals , Patriots Seahawks

so say bye bye to Patriots whom again their defense is ranked at bottom of league ranked 28th overall

SO we have your best possible Matchup being the one nobody sees in every forum i have looked no one not even ESPN or NFL network sees it being Texans vs Packers

all though texans lost 3 games out of 4 the last one again colts used coach being back on sidelines for motivation got them that win i think this time now with all that bullshit out of the way texans will play thier game as they have done most of year

win home game in a breeze

remember bengals played vs 2nd string of Ravens and it wasn't easy for them that rookie QB for Balty was driving bengals nuts

this is rematch of last years two teams with rookie QB's Texans vs Bengals

texans won huge  then went on road and hung in as a 7.5 dog at Ravens but lost the game

So  Texans have a fairly easy road into bowl 1 home game then two roads @ Patriots then @ Broncos and yes Manning was great but when your divison consist of  Chargers, Raiders Chiefs LOL you get the picture

Patriots same thing gifted 6 wins and dont use that game vs Texans no team would win or even come close on that mid season 3 trip rodeo in 17 days.

ooooo btw check me out on you tube as MRBOOKIEKILLER

I have the Texans 20-1 to win the SB and 9-1 to win the Confrence. I also have the Seahawks 15-1 and the Pack 9-1 to win the SB.  

2 for 2 so far...

I know this trend is for the SB, but it is 4 for 4

6-2 Straight Up

7-1 Against The Spread (Denver lost, but were -1 in T/O Differential with is the worst compared to other the other teams in the playoffs)

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO

any thought on both championship matchup ?

I know this is well after the fact but an easy road to the superbowl would include back to back games of being close to 10 point dogs? Do you kill your bookies to avoid paying your debts to them? Do you pick out your own clothes to wear or does someone have to do that for you? If that is an easy road into bowl how easy is the pats 1 home game then @ broncos? Or how about the Broncos 2 home games? Does every team have an easy road into the superbowl? They should all make it right? Wouldn't that be fair? I bet you got loads of trophies growing up. Maybe you even got your own nice, short bus. BTW lets eliminate the 49ers 'rookie' qb..................... Patriots gifted 6 wins.. Pats had a tougher schedule than the Texans by any metric you want to use. So much fking garbage in that one post. Pretty much everything you said there is wrong and I'm not talking about your predictions. [/useless directionless rant]

I would be great if either ATL or Balt won so the system would be in place..I think if both are over 35 then it is not accurate.

You would think that the difference in these values between the Colts and Houston would have generated a larger score differential than 6 points.

Well we have a play....SF

Playoff Numbers

• Baltimore +3.233 / +5 TO
• San Fran +30.75 / +2 TO

 

I really would not read to much into the system above as it has been proven to not be that accurate in the past. I have ran several numbers and definately have some questions. 

The sample size is small....I guess you would have to ask yourself who played the stronger teams in the playoffs? 

Either way Baltimore is on fire right now, but have they really played any competition? NE and Indy's D is proven to be bad.  Everyone also said Denver, NE and Indy played a very weak schedule....

Did Atlanta and Green Bay play a weak schedule?  We all know that SF played a much tougher schedule during the season, but I tend to lean on the idea of the playoffs are a new season. 

I am definately concerned with the kicking game of SF and moderately concerned about the young QB, Kap.  Even though Kap has had several games to implode this year, but he has proven himself everytime.... NO, NE, GB, ATL.....he could have easily buckled in everyone of these games. NO away, NE away, GB pick 6, and ATL down big......each time he did not falter.  Another concern is SF vs great defenses, they struggled with Seattle and St. Louis. 

I am leaning SF, I just think overall they are a better football TEAM with a very good defense.  Just a few thoughts.....

system sux

niners gl 

sys ok w/ tweaks

You could also add that only a small handful of teams won the SB that were negative in TO's in the regular season, which would eliminate Denver.

I have the exact number and will try and look it up when I have time.

Denver I'm pretty sure was losing the TO battle all year just not at the start of the season as I track that stat in every game for every team. If I remember correctly the problem for Denver was their defense failing to get many takeaways.

The other thing to add is that teams with +20 or more TO'S rarely get to SB's. You could eliminate the Pats with this.

I have the exact numbers for this also but will have to go find it.

Teams +20 TO or more are generally getting alot of TO luck and are not as good as they may appear.............................................