Superbowl Pick with explanation

Good Morning Folks.  It's the biggest day in NFL wagering.
I have a huge pending on KC futures (some tied to OSU winning it all at insane odds) and have hedged about 25% on various eagles bets.
All that being said if I didn't have these futures I'd absolutely be on KC CHIEFS with some lean on under.  I'm frankly surprised at all the Eagles love on the forum.

1.  Mahomes is 8-0 ATS when spread is -3 or less
2.  Mahomes is 33-5 SU on extended rest on 8 days or more
3.  Andy Reid is 21-4 after a bye week.  Chiefs are also 11-1 after a bye with Mahomes.  Speaking of Mahomes he is a perfect 12-0 in a dome. 
4.  Teams who score 40+ in a conference championship are 3-7.  When they score 45+ in a conference championship they are 0-2.  Obviously applies to Eagles
5.  We all know Fangio is 0-8 SU against Mahomes
6.  Head coaches who have a rematch in a superbowl (Sirriani v Reid) the loser in first is also always a loser in the second at 0-4

Now I know trends aren't the end all be all but it's hard for me to wager on Eagles based on all of this data.  Furthermore, the Eagles have an offensive coordinator who's half way out the door and a defensive coordinator who Reid & Mahomes are all too familiar with.  I've seen the comparisions that this will be Tampa v KC but I disagree in that analogy because KC that year had FOUR out of FIVE offensive lineman starters out.  Yes LG Caliendo is a massive downgrade at LT and Eagles DT's are extremely talented but the C Creed Humphrey and RG Trey Smith are very good.  I thought Reid would be tempted to move Thuney back into LG but it seems they will run with Caliendo which to me makes that the most important matchup in this game.

Talent and roster wise the Eagles are almost better in every position.  But to me that's offset and more by the coaching (and scheme) edge as well as QB play.  Ask yourself this when making your wager.  Do you want to bet on Reid and Spags who have been there done that so many times or Eagles staff who haven't won ?  Would you trust Mahomes this generation goat or Hurts?  

Final Pick: Chiefs win the 3 peat with small action on under

Good luck to all enjoy the superbowl!

BOL  on your plays @richwins81

Yup it's the chiefs game to lose...And I am a philly fan

Betting against mahomes isn't wise 

81 

Bunch of great insights 

Chiefs max table limit hahaha 

Spags is too good of a DC. Remember he was the architect of the Giants d that stymied Brady and New England in their undefeated season leading up to the Super Bowl.    Did  the patriots have the better roster?  You bet.  Did the Niners have the better roster last year?  For sure.  But somehow KC found a way and I strongly believe will again tonight 

Spagnuolo is a 4x Super Bowl champ.

KC D is elite with the best at the helm calling the shots. They will definitely show up big time tonight. 

Reid and Spags with extra time vs fangio, sirriani and Moore?  That to me is the big difference. And we all know if the game is on the line Mahomes will get that GW FG drive. Will hurts?

Barkley and big, physical Eagles Dline will be difference. Hurts will be poised in 4qtr. 

@Quaffer

 GL buddy

24-23 exact final. KC 

juju over 16.5

under 48.5

BOL 

@richwins81

 No luck needed tonight

good try