Superbowl Winner

This will be my 25th watched Superbowl and I can usually pick a winner pretty easy.  Won my last 8 out of 10 straight up but 6 out of 10 ATS (not posted).  I did post in many threads that I was on NO ML last year.  Was my second biggest payout next to Tampa Bay years ago.

My system is pretty simple, I take a look at both teams and I breakdown the best 20-30 players.  The team I feel has the best players from 1-20 starts me in the right direction.

Injuries are important (Gronk, edge NYG) , coaching (edge NE) and then for me hands down is the QB's (Even only because Eli is playing great otherwise Brady would get this edge for sure).

My last criteria is that I pay close attention to everyone around me, friends, co workers but especially RADIO.  Here in the Toronto area I listen to local Toronto sportshows and the Buffalo sportstation.  I don't like being on the same side as everyone else come Superbowl.  Now saying that, if my personal pick is the same as everyone else then I only make a small wager.  My last 4 losses in the last 10 years have all been smaller wagers where I felt I was on the same side as everyone else.

If you truly break down the best 20 players, I get 11-9 in favor of New England.  I include Off, Def, Spec Teams and all kickers.  In my top 30 I get 16-14 another slight edge to New England.  If I list the names I am sure most will agree with me 1-10 but my analysis of the other 10-20 players can definately be open for debate which I am not prepared to do.

I have watched the last 5 or so games played by each team.  I am extremely shocked of hearing that NE's defense is just average by a lot of cappers.  I also can agree that NYG's are playing really well and are a very good team compared to the beginning of the year.  The same HAS to be said about NE's Defense though and nobody is saying that.

I think Gronk will still be a huge target in the red zone.  He only has to leap vertically to beat the pretty average secondary of the Giants so he is still a factor in this game.  I think NE can limit the Giants to FG's more than TD's and probably vice versa for the Giants. 

Lastly, EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE is on the Giants up here where I live.  All the radio shows, all the guest sports players, all the ex players and coaches are on the Giants.  Most people on Cover's are on the Giants too.  Now that doesn't mean I am right and they are all wrong but I feel much better with my pick now so I am going Large.

NE PATRIOTS ML for 10 units  (normal plays are 1-3 units for me)

Minus 135 is my line.

NE 27  NYG 24

BOL to everyone and I know I am nowhere the capper or poster of many others on here but my experience over the years has made me a lot of money on Super Bowl's and I hope I can cash another big one.  Game Winning Field Goal with 30 Seconds left

really???

man, open your eyes and look around... earlier i was thinking it was about a 50/50 split... but now, i'm starting to think it is about 90/10 in favor of the Pats... EVERYBODY is using the same logic as you, and EVERYBODY is taking the Pats...

it takes a serious amount of effort to find anybody who is on the Giants on this forum... and yet EVERYBODY is talking about how EVERYBODY is on the Giants...

this shit cracks me up!

The thing I don't like about covers is the lack of immature and intelligent people on this site.

I never said my only reason to pick the Pats is because I feel there is a lot of love for the Giants but because it is ONE of my 5 reasons.  Last year I was on Pitts like most everyone else and I lost.  The year before that I was on NO ML and I think the only other poster I remember on them was Estes.  How did that turn out ?

My main reason for taking the Pats is that they have as many if not better players then the Giants.  I also think their defense has played great the last 5 games of regular/playoffs.  Have any of you actually watched them play ?  I have and I think this defense is above average which is all they will need I think to win.  The Giants have a great front 4 but they have Brady who can throw the ball quick.  He is in the top 3 in fastest release in the NFL so I think they can get it done.

I think with the small revenge factor, the emotions of Mrs. Craft dying and the fact that they have played great all year is a good reason to take them.

My last fact why I like them is because everyone around me is on the Giants.  When I say around me I am talking about TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA.  I have listened to probably 20-30 different sports analysts , ex nfl players/coaches on our local radio and 90% are on the Giants not to cover but to win the game outright.

All I need is for NE to win, not cover as I am on the safer bet the ML.  They won't kill the Giants but I think they come out on top.

If you have something intelligent to respond not like Charlie lol then please do .

Feeling Good about tommorrow

You are totally wrong Ice4Blood.  All you  have to do is read all the responses in peoples threads.  Someone makes a Giant's pick and there are 25 replies agreeing, I made this thread and I have a few handshakes.

Go to BigEast's thread and see a lot of people saying too bad we are on opposite sides.

You are trying to create an illusion to feel better about your bet but you are wrong.  Doesn't mean you wont win but you are on a side that has about 60% Giants love.

Your comments really don't hold water when you say its 5 to 1 in favor of Pats ? Lol seriously, give me the names of the threads but also the backers in those threads.  You are way off on that one.