suuma's NFL week three

10-2 ytd

TNF: Falcons -5.5 -110

Matty Ice. Under the dome. Primetime. Falcons are just a different team at home. They lost on the road to a very good Bengals team, I wouldn't overreact to that. They will be absolutely motivated today. Some say the Saints-win doesn't look solid after they lost against the Browns. Saints played outside, where they have been something like 5-9 over the last two seasons. TB scored two touchdowns at home against the Panthers in the fourth quarter when they were down 0-20 and Carolina didn't really care about that. They conceded 20 & 19 points against backup-QBs at home and let them walk downfield a lot, so why should their defense be able to keep them in the game against Matt Ryan and company in their stadium ? I think the TB offense won't be the game-deciding element and I don't care whether Doug Martin will play or not. Atlanta should be able to put enough points on the scoreboard to cover that spread without keeping an eye on their own defense. That looks like a public-pick but I'm all over the Falcons since the games were over last Sunday.

Good luck everybody !

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner !

Titans +7 -105

Interesting situation here. Bengals come off two important wins and go into their bye week after that game. They have some injury troubles and a very important four-game-stretch coming up in October against NE, CAR, IND and BAL. From a psychological angle: why in the hell should they be 100 percent focused and motivated ? I can't see a reason for them being very motivated. Bengals are a good team, but they needed some big plays and turnovers in their first two games. When Marvin Jones comes back, they will be much better offensively. Without him and a hurt A.J. Green who isn't 100% healthy, they will struggle against the good pass D of Tennessee who allowed just 163 yards on average in their first two games. I expect a close game which could come down to the wire in the fourth quarter.


Niners -3

Under Jim Harbaugh, Niners are 9-2 after a loss and allowed an average of 10 points in these games. When they lost, they are very focused the next week. Cardinals struggled offensively against the Chargers and Giants. What am I missing ? Cardinals are sitting at 2-0 and on top of their division. That's a new feeling for them and automatically leads to high-thinking and in-game-pressure when you are behind. Niners were so angry about giving up a 17-0 lead against the Bears, they travel to Arizona with the will of beating the hell out of their divisional opponent to show the world they are still the top-four team. CK7 won't produce so much turnovers. Cardinals had decent numbers against the run but it was against SD and Giants, not famous for their running game. They are vulnerable in the middle of their defensive line, which should lead to some Gore/Hyde action through the middle to create space for play-action passes by Kaepernick. Will be a long night for the Cardinals. I like the Niners to win by a solid margin and to keep the Cardinals away from their end zone most of the game.

Giants -2 -111

Everybody is jumping on the Houston-Bandwagon, because they won against..ehm the Redskins with a bad RGIII and ehm... against the Raiders who turned the ball over four times. The Giants had a nightmare start into the season by visiting the Detroit Lions in their stadium in a MNF primetime game. Lions scored ten points off interceptions by Eli Manning. Special teams and turnovers were a shot in the neck for the Giants against Arizona. Defensively they played very well and should have won that game. Take away turnovers and special teams TD and their D only allowed 24 points against the Lions and 12 against the Cardinals. They had a turnover ratio of -6 in their first two games, which should turn around if you believe in the "regression to the mean"-logic. Texans are feeling high after their 2-0 and had to travel from west coast to east coast this week. Giants are with their back to the wall and that is a situation Eli Manning managed most (!) of the times in his career. They stayed in New York and had one full week to recover and prepare for the Texans-game. I like them to surprise and win against the Texans.

Ravens -2 -102

Browns flying high after that win against the Saints. Saints are just weak on the road, they are something like 5-9 over the last two seasons when playing outside. Completely different game this time. Baltimore need that "business-win" badly after losing against the Bengals. They had ten days to prepare and should win that game by 7+.

Seahawks -4 -111

Classic sandwich game last week for the Seahawks. Their speedy defense had serious problems on the turf in San Diego and were vulnerable against short passes. That won't be the case in their stadium where they are just a different team. Seahawks will be so motivated to show everbody that the Super Bowl win wasn't an one-time-thing. Since the season opener they had the Denver-game in mind. With their twelfth man in their back they will simply rock on Sunday. Broncos started 2-0 but it wasn't more than business. Peyton came, won and went home. If they get behind at some point, every single memory from February will come up, which will lead to a lack of confidence. I bet against Seattle last week and really hoped they would lose outright at San Diego, to be more focused this week.

Glad to see someone posting thoughtful write ups .... GL 

tha_riddla


Good luck everybody !!

2-2 yesterday with an unlucky push on the Ravens. Should have paid the juice for -1.5.