Just delving a little deeper into capping up this one and noticing that Tampa Bay's defense isn't really much better than Detroit's.
My main concern with the Lions (other than the fact they are the friggin Lions) is their pass defense which is dreadful at giving up chunk plays.
They are 30th in passing 1st downs allowed. But TB is only 29th. Total pass yards allowed 30th vs 27th. Opponents yards per comp 31st vs 22nd. So now we see a bit more of a disparity BUT in yards per ATTEMPT it's less of one at 30th to 26th. Because Detroit is actually much higher in completion percentage at 10th (surprisingly high IMO) vs 24th (surprisingly low) in allowed %
Then if you look at 1st downs allowed by penalty Detroit is tied for the 2nd least, while Tampa Bay is tied for the 3rd MOST. So Detroit's maligned defense actually may have less holes than people are giving credit for (it's still not good, I've watched it) but TBs may not be as good as people think.
Just as an aside the defense the Bucs are tied with in most penalty first downs - the vaunted Chiefs.
Im already on the Lions for a max play locked in at -6. But for anyone on the fence due to the supposed disparity in defense it might be interesting. Also need to consider the Bucs play Carolina twice a year who has the worst pass O and Detroit played Minnesota who was top 5 twice a year, and GB who was great at chunk plays through the air.
I don't think TB would go into Minnesota or GB and win a playoff game, and Detroit winning the division with both those teams shouldn't be underestimated.
Just delving a little deeper into capping up this one and noticing that Tampa Bay's defense isn't really much better than Detroit's.
My main concern with the Lions (other than the fact they are the friggin Lions) is their pass defense which is dreadful at giving up chunk plays.
They are 30th in passing 1st downs allowed. But TB is only 29th. Total pass yards allowed 30th vs 27th. Opponents yards per comp 31st vs 22nd. So now we see a bit more of a disparity BUT in yards per ATTEMPT it's less of one at 30th to 26th. Because Detroit is actually much higher in completion percentage at 10th (surprisingly high IMO) vs 24th (surprisingly low) in allowed %
Then if you look at 1st downs allowed by penalty Detroit is tied for the 2nd least, while Tampa Bay is tied for the 3rd MOST. So Detroit's maligned defense actually may have less holes than people are giving credit for (it's still not good, I've watched it) but TBs may not be as good as people think.
Just as an aside the defense the Bucs are tied with in most penalty first downs - the vaunted Chiefs.
Im already on the Lions for a max play locked in at -6. But for anyone on the fence due to the supposed disparity in defense it might be interesting. Also need to consider the Bucs play Carolina twice a year who has the worst pass O and Detroit played Minnesota who was top 5 twice a year, and GB who was great at chunk plays through the air.
I don't think TB would go into Minnesota or GB and win a playoff game, and Detroit winning the division with both those teams shouldn't be underestimated.
Mullins carved up Detroit twice, 377 and 412 (I believe). Minnesota lost Cousins early on and it took 7 weeks for GB to find their footing.
SF extremely fortunate to beat GB last night, shouldn't of needed ot but the kicker can't make a 41 yarder that would've guaranteed win or OT.
I kinda remember GB thrashing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day? I also remember TB going to GB in December and dominating them. Detroit plays Chicago twice a year and performed a miracle to win in Chicago.
Mullins carved up Detroit twice, 377 and 412 (I believe). Minnesota lost Cousins early on and it took 7 weeks for GB to find their footing.
SF extremely fortunate to beat GB last night, shouldn't of needed ot but the kicker can't make a 41 yarder that would've guaranteed win or OT.
I kinda remember GB thrashing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day? I also remember TB going to GB in December and dominating them. Detroit plays Chicago twice a year and performed a miracle to win in Chicago.
Mullins carved up Detroit twice, 377 and 412 (I believe). Minnesota lost Cousins early on and it took 7 weeks for GB to find their footing. SF extremely fortunate to beat GB last night, shouldn't of needed ot but the kicker can't make a 41 yarder that would've guaranteed win or OT. I kinda remember GB thrashing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day? I also remember TB going to GB in December and dominating them. Detroit plays Chicago twice a year and performed a miracle to win in Chicago. One of us has a memory problem...
Yeah, you. TB lost to Detroit already this year and didn't score a single TD. You left that out. The Lions swept Minnesota who cares how many yards they gave up Jefferson is probably the best WR in the NFL and Addison is really good, too. They can outscore teams like Minnesota with q top 5 pass attack they can certainly outscore an average offense like TB.
Houston vs Baltimore this season Texans had zero TDs and people thought they would be better yesterday and they got thrashed. Sounds like you already have your bet in so best of luck.
Mullins carved up Detroit twice, 377 and 412 (I believe). Minnesota lost Cousins early on and it took 7 weeks for GB to find their footing. SF extremely fortunate to beat GB last night, shouldn't of needed ot but the kicker can't make a 41 yarder that would've guaranteed win or OT. I kinda remember GB thrashing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day? I also remember TB going to GB in December and dominating them. Detroit plays Chicago twice a year and performed a miracle to win in Chicago. One of us has a memory problem...
Yeah, you. TB lost to Detroit already this year and didn't score a single TD. You left that out. The Lions swept Minnesota who cares how many yards they gave up Jefferson is probably the best WR in the NFL and Addison is really good, too. They can outscore teams like Minnesota with q top 5 pass attack they can certainly outscore an average offense like TB.
Houston vs Baltimore this season Texans had zero TDs and people thought they would be better yesterday and they got thrashed. Sounds like you already have your bet in so best of luck.
Nice write up and strong points you've made here. I would like to add that Detroit yields 1 full yard less on opponents YPPA at home than they do on the road. The Bucs gain 1.1 yard less per OFF YPPA on the road than they do at home.
Nice write up and strong points you've made here. I would like to add that Detroit yields 1 full yard less on opponents YPPA at home than they do on the road. The Bucs gain 1.1 yard less per OFF YPPA on the road than they do at home.
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