Idk, Wildcat. Personally, I see points at a premium in the Seattle/Detroit game. A lot of love for that Over from many, but I don't see it. Detroit has trouble running the ball, Seattle has O Line issues.
I take Seattle, but I see more of a Seattle 31, Detroit 17 game. That's why I'm playing a 7 point Teaser, personally:
1. Houston +3.5
2. Oak/Houston Over 43.5
3. Det +15 (locked it in on Tuesday to get it from +8)
4. Under 49.5
5. Miami +17
6. Miami/Pittsburgh O 40
4.5 to 1 odds.
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Idk, Wildcat. Personally, I see points at a premium in the Seattle/Detroit game. A lot of love for that Over from many, but I don't see it. Detroit has trouble running the ball, Seattle has O Line issues.
I take Seattle, but I see more of a Seattle 31, Detroit 17 game. That's why I'm playing a 7 point Teaser, personally:
1. Houston +3.5
2. Oak/Houston Over 43.5
3. Det +15 (locked it in on Tuesday to get it from +8)
To clarify: 31-17, in my mind, is with late TDs, I took the teaser as a buffer against this. I think this game is in the teens for the majority of the game and could end that way if both teams play close to the vest.
For me 31-17 is not a prediction but a ceiling.
If I were hard pressed for my median and average game score it would be Seattle 23, Detroit 16. I see way more FGs than TDs, personally.
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To clarify: 31-17, in my mind, is with late TDs, I took the teaser as a buffer against this. I think this game is in the teens for the majority of the game and could end that way if both teams play close to the vest.
For me 31-17 is not a prediction but a ceiling.
If I were hard pressed for my median and average game score it would be Seattle 23, Detroit 16. I see way more FGs than TDs, personally.
I think the right side of this is Seattle. I fully expected the line to open at 7. When they opened at 7.5, it seems like the books are begging for Det $. I feel fairly comfortable at +14.5 but the Lions def has been getting torched lately, now they have to go outside to arguably the most difficult stadium for roadies in the leage.
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I think the right side of this is Seattle. I fully expected the line to open at 7. When they opened at 7.5, it seems like the books are begging for Det $. I feel fairly comfortable at +14.5 but the Lions def has been getting torched lately, now they have to go outside to arguably the most difficult stadium for roadies in the leage.
I see a lot of very good lines from bookmakers. The problem if every line is dead on is that they get killed in two way action on teasers.
Oak/Houston middles if:
the game is decided by a FG either way,
the score is Over 29.5 and Under 43.5...
This means 17-14, 20-17 they get middled. 16-19 Also middles.
These are very likely scores in this game.
Detroit/Seattle can be middled very easily with that large of a spread.
They can get middled on Seattle winning by any margin Under 15, and can get middled by a number of totals.
For example: O 36, U 50:
Seattle 31, Detroit 17
Seattle 28, Detroit 21
Seattle 28, Detroit 20
Seattle 28, Detroit 17
Seattle 27, Detroit 17
Seattle 24, Detroit 17
Seattle 21, Detroit 20
Seattle 20, Detroit 17
I mean, in all honesty, it would be extremely rare for this game to not get middled in teasers. It would take the Seahawks blowing out the Lions, a very low or a very high scoring game to not get middled. Or the Lions could win straight up. This particular game is a teaser paradise.
Miami/Pittsburgh can get middled if Pittsburgh wins by any total between 3 and 17, and the game goes Over 39 or under 51.
. Likely scores for this game that middle:
Pittsburgh 31, Miami 20
Pittsburgh 31, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 30, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 28, Miami 21
Pittsburgh 28, Miami 20
Pittsburgh 24, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 24, Miami 20
It's just absolutely crazy how little wiggle room the books gave themselves this week. If even one of these doesn't hit both ways, I'll be surprised.
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I see a lot of very good lines from bookmakers. The problem if every line is dead on is that they get killed in two way action on teasers.
Oak/Houston middles if:
the game is decided by a FG either way,
the score is Over 29.5 and Under 43.5...
This means 17-14, 20-17 they get middled. 16-19 Also middles.
These are very likely scores in this game.
Detroit/Seattle can be middled very easily with that large of a spread.
They can get middled on Seattle winning by any margin Under 15, and can get middled by a number of totals.
For example: O 36, U 50:
Seattle 31, Detroit 17
Seattle 28, Detroit 21
Seattle 28, Detroit 20
Seattle 28, Detroit 17
Seattle 27, Detroit 17
Seattle 24, Detroit 17
Seattle 21, Detroit 20
Seattle 20, Detroit 17
I mean, in all honesty, it would be extremely rare for this game to not get middled in teasers. It would take the Seahawks blowing out the Lions, a very low or a very high scoring game to not get middled. Or the Lions could win straight up. This particular game is a teaser paradise.
Miami/Pittsburgh can get middled if Pittsburgh wins by any total between 3 and 17, and the game goes Over 39 or under 51.
. Likely scores for this game that middle:
Pittsburgh 31, Miami 20
Pittsburgh 31, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 30, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 28, Miami 21
Pittsburgh 28, Miami 20
Pittsburgh 24, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 24, Miami 20
It's just absolutely crazy how little wiggle room the books gave themselves this week. If even one of these doesn't hit both ways, I'll be surprised.
Idk, Wildcat. Personally, I see points at a premium in the Seattle/Detroit game. A lot of love for that Over from many, but I don't see it. Detroit has trouble running the ball, Seattle has O Line issues.
I take Seattle, but I see more of a Seattle 31, Detroit 17 game. That's why I'm playing a 7 point Teaser, personally:
1. Houston +3.5
2. Oak/Houston Over 43.5
3. Det +15 (locked it in on Tuesday to get it from +8)
4. Under 49.5
5. Miami +17
6. Miami/Pittsburgh O 40
4.5 to 1 odds.
The only thing I don't like here is the Over in the Houston game. Two bad QBs and two pretty decent defenses. Don't know who wins this game but I think it could be like 13-7 or 14-13
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Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:
Idk, Wildcat. Personally, I see points at a premium in the Seattle/Detroit game. A lot of love for that Over from many, but I don't see it. Detroit has trouble running the ball, Seattle has O Line issues.
I take Seattle, but I see more of a Seattle 31, Detroit 17 game. That's why I'm playing a 7 point Teaser, personally:
1. Houston +3.5
2. Oak/Houston Over 43.5
3. Det +15 (locked it in on Tuesday to get it from +8)
4. Under 49.5
5. Miami +17
6. Miami/Pittsburgh O 40
4.5 to 1 odds.
The only thing I don't like here is the Over in the Houston game. Two bad QBs and two pretty decent defenses. Don't know who wins this game but I think it could be like 13-7 or 14-13
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