TEASERS - Winners when done correctly

1-2 posted

4 team / 13 point teaser -120

GB +4.5

SEA +5.5

HOU/DAL over 33.5

TB/NO over 35.5

Will have write ups later in the week.

As always, comments welcome

 GLTA

GB +4.5 - Almost official that Ponder will be playing tonight. While I think that he is better equipped to handle a prime time game at GB then Bridgewater would be, this is still not a good thing for the Vikings. Weather might be an issue, allowing MIN to keep the game close, but I just cant see them beating GB

SEA +5.5 - After the game Cousins had last week I don't see how he will fair any better against the best DEF in the league, especially coming off a bye. SEA is not the same on the road, but they are miles ahead of WAS and will show it on MNF

HOU/DAL OV 33.5 - with both of these teams surprisingly playing well with 3-1 records, I feel like this game will be close and instead of picking a side, I'm choosing the total on this game. Even though both DEF are playing well, for the most part, so are the offenses. Only needing a few tds and fgs to reach this total, 21-14 is easily attainable

TB/NO ov 35.5 - NO at home is gonna score 35 by themselves. After the horrible game they played last week in DAL, TB is in for a whoopin as NO steps up and handles business... If ATL can score 56 pts, NO can as well...

Looking to get back on track

Comments Welcome

GLTA

Tothemoney - The juice isn't that bad at -120. I would have to say that the best positive to doing a 13 point tease over a 7 point is that you are able to cover more key numbers and therefore improve your odds of winning by decreasing the edge that a point spread provides Vegas. Remember that the point spread is set so that Vegas can get equal amount of action on both sides, so that no matter what the outcome, they make a profit.

If used correctly those 13 points effectively allows you can cross up to 8 key numbers (-11.5 to +1.5 :11,10,7,4,3,1,0,+1) compared to 4 key numbers with a 7 point tease (-7.5 to -.5 : 7,4,3,1) So in essence the more key number you can cross the better value you receive in your teaser

Make sense?

bump*

Any thoughts?

JonEphotBall - ask me the same question after week 10 when I'm 7-3 or 8-2... or maybe after the season when I go 12-4 or better... In 2012 I went 13-3 (11-2 posted 84.6%) or in 2011 when I went 14-4 (10-3 posted 76.9%).... Even last year when I went 10-6 (2-2 posted) and had a down year was still 62.5%

Its a long year and I never claimed to never lose. No matter how you slice it, it gambling... Just trying to show that teasers can be a good option - When done correctly

Thanks for your input

3 of 4 legs complete - just looking for SEA to cover +5.5 which seems pretty likely.

Look for my thread this week as I look to go for 2 in a row

BOL and GLTA