Tech angles

If you subscribe to the theory that history repeats itself all well and good you might like the data below....if you don't this thread will have no relevance to you.

I am hitting a solid 48% this year in the KOC contest, though the games I am actually betting are doing slightly better than that....it's been a tough season.

1)  Games in December are littered with non-regular game days in comparison to the rest of the season.

Home favorites on:

  a)  Saturday............................48-62  ATS, 20-27 ATS in divisional matchups.....week 16....VERSUS Chiefs, Ravens.....week 17....VERSUS Rams, Bengals

  b)  Friday................................1-2 ATS

  c)  Wednesday........................0-1 ATS

2)  Home dogs, after being pathetic most of 2024 have historically been good after week 15....120-87 ATS (58%) going back to 20+ years, covering by an average of +2.2 points/game.

week 16................... ON Bears, Jets, Commanders, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys, .....week 17....ON Giants, Browns

3)  Favorites with a net 30 yards/game rushing advantage  have gone 96-119 ATS in week 16 (44.7%)....

AGAINST Packers, Ravens, Falcons, Lions, Eagles, Cardinals, Vikings, Bucs

4)  Week 16 AWAY teams with a net 50 total yards/game advantage over their present opponents have gone only 53-67 ATS.......AGAINST Cardinals, Lions, Titans, 49ers, Bucs

5)  Week 16 home favorites with the turnover margin DISADVANTAGE of -.5/game have gone 18-34 ATS.....VERSUS Chiefs, Ravens

6)  Week 16 home dogs with  with the turnover margin DISADVANTAGE of -.5/game have gone 48-34 ATS...ON Seahawks

Synopsis:  In past seasons week 16 and beyond we have seen heavy regression on what has transpired for the season-to-date.....will it happen this year?....we'll see.

BUT WAIT....THERE'S MORE!

We have no exact data on the college football playoffs with teams this week having games on their home field in the playoffs.

However, non-regular season favored teams in bowls and conference championships off a loss have been very bad in December,

7)  Neutral site college  favorites in December off a loss....19-30-1 ATS.....Miami, OH

8)  Non-regular season college home favorites off a loss in December.............0-2 ATS.......Ohio State, Penn State, Texas....obviously the amount of data is very, very small

Good to see you back….  

@Indigo999

Thanks

Synopsis: In past seasons week 16 and beyond we have seen heavy regression on what has transpired for the season-to-date.....will it happen this year?....we'll see.

I believe this to be the case throughout the season..REGRESSION, especially teams that go OVER the total.

Plays:

1)  Colts -3'.....this play and the Dolphins play are predicated on teams that were in very good situations last week that didn't cover, and by the same token those teams that should have lost that won are often play-againsts the following game, as we saw with the Broncos meltdown last night.  Anyone that saw that Colts/Broncos game last week knew it took some extreme circumstances for Denver to cover against the Colts (as it did when they played the Browns), including a running back inexplicably  dropping the ball before  he actually scored a touchdown, which also happened in a previous game in the exact same manner (NYG).  The Broncos in that game had 190 total yards, were outgained by 110+ yards and scored over 30 points.....they were overdue to get beat.

We've never seen so many players brain-farting on the field as we have this season, as well as guys writhing around in pain....seems like a guy  getting injured  happens 10 times a game now, many whom are back in the game the next series.  Are we as a human race just getting softer, or what?,,,,and we are seeing it in baseball too, which is about as easy a game on the body as there is in professional sports (except for pitchers), yet guys like Byron Buxton gets hurt for 50+ games every season.

I had a strong historical query on the Dolphins and the Colts last week.....we go to the well again this week on them, with trepidation.

2)  Dolphins pk, -115

3)  Seahawks +3

4)  Notre Dame -7

5)  SMU +8'.....last year's bowl game in very cold weather for the Mustangs does come to mind where they had a horrible game....we'll expect they learned from that game what not to do.

6)  Clemson +12

I would like to play against the Buckeyes, but don't feel the Vols' quarterback is good enough to get the job done.....we'll look to fade the Buckeye/Vols winner, whoever gets through the next game......we'd love to have one side thrash the other, setting up a play-against next week.

9)  In the NFL, away favorites week 16 that are playing on Sunday whose next game is on Sunday have gone 39-63-5 ATS (-3.2), including 19-34 ATS in non-divisional games.....VERSUS Eagles, Vikings, Bucs

10)  NFL home teams playing a night game after week 15 have gone 34-46 ATS.....VERSUS Packers, Cowboys

Great info 

Here's a Home Fav in week 16 and day =sunday and your next is a game is sunday and Fav and the next week is the playoffs and sunday  (1-7 ats and 8-0 OV)

H and F and week=16 and day=Sunday and n:day=Sunday and n:F and nn:playoffs=0  (4-7 ats and 11-0 OV)

With the above as AD and n:D (10-1 OV)

Forgot this is the 1-7 and 8-0

HF and week=16 and day=Sunday and n:day=Sunday and n:F and nn:playoffs=0 and nn:day=Sunday