The ONE stat you need to remember this year

Last year, almost 29% of the games played ended with a 3 point or less differential.

In my opinion, this year will blow that number away.

Easily over 30% and probably more like 33%.

There is parity in the league like has not been the case in a long, long time.  If ever.

You should be playing more money lines this year than you ever have before, as a general rule.

Large spreads (7 or higher) in the first 3-4 weeks of the year should be avoided or played strictly on the dog side.

Best of luck this year.

@AdVictoriam

 Nice

What were the numbers in the previous 5 years before last year?

Just curious if it has been trending upwards for a while or not

So in a league with 32 teams, comprised of the best of the best player wise, we're supposed to be surprised that 29% of the games ended up 3 points or less?

What a shocker.

@undermysac

 Not stating that it should be a surprise, just that it will be increasing significantly in its affect on bettors.

Obviously, not meant for someone as savvy as yourself.  Others might not be as aware as you.

But thanks for stopping by!

The stat doesn’t really say much. The stat should be how many games of 3 point spread finished within that spread. It really doesn’t matter if a 7 point spread finished within 3 points because most shouldn’t be playing that ML. 

for all we know of that 29% only 5% we’re spreads of 3 or less and some of those were won by the dog. 

my point os because a certain percentage of games finished within 3 points it doesn’t mean you should be playing MLs. 

3 pt spreads usually mean that either team can win.

@AdVictoriam

 First...  Your number is bad.  73 out of 271 games ended on 0, 1, 2, or 3 in 2022 regular season.  That is 26.9%, not 29%.

But more importantly....  It isn't about frequency of margin of victory as much as it is identifying the games that are most likely to be that margin of victory.

The reason?  It is baked in to the price.  So if you simply took a strategy to blanket bet all games 3 and under, you would likely come close to breaking even but paying vig.

The difference between winning and losing at betting is identifying WHICH games or teams have the best chance of getting an edge.

^^^

@vanzack

 I will hunt for cheap -2.5 and +3.5 all year long. That 20:1 middle is enticing.

@Kadejax

 I think the important part is just the numerical value of what he is stating.

Basically over 1 in 4 games ends within 3 points.....(or 26.9%)

Therefore on a +3.5 line without even capping the game you already have 26.9% chance of winning the bet...without capping anything....just simply knowing the numerical values and the number you are betting into....

Van brings up a good point regarding selection. Obviously all games have a 26.9% chance of ending within 3 points, numerically speaking....but from using our knowledge of the sport we can say that certain games are more likely to fall in this range than others...let's use week 1 as an example

I think we can all agree that the tenn/no game has a higher chance of ending within 3 points than the hou/balt game. This is where "capping" comes into play. Sure the numbers state that hou/balt will end within 3 points 26.9% of the time, but based on all other factors (injuries, roster depth, coaching, etc...) will that actually occur in this single event...of course Houston is +10 here so the book is expecting them to keep it somewhere in the 10 range not the 3.5 range I'm just using it as an example 

@dubz4dummyz

There is a lot to discuss in your post, but I will focus on one point.....

There were 27 games last season with a closing line of 3.5 (obviously can be more or less depending on definition and book)

6 of those 27 games landed on 3, 2, 1, or 0.

3 of those 6 were won outright by the underdog, and 3 were won by the fav but didnt cover the 3.5.

@vanzack

 Nice

Sorry folks meant 26.9% for last seasons results.... Not for the last 10-20+ seasons...

Be interesting to see if the numbers of games ending with a 0-3 point differential have been increasing the past 5-10 seasons

@AdVictoriam

 Good point.

Now I'm second guessing if I should take a big bet on Raven next week.  Line is around 9.5 

@vanzack

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