Over 48. Here's why..........
Here we go! A heavyweight matchup in this relatively new tradition of having the Super Bowl champs play in an opener on Thursday night. Really, the Baltimore Ravens should be hosting this game, but since the Orioles were already scheduled to play at home and there wouldn’t be enough parking, etc. the game got moved to Denver. This may, in fact, be a benefit to Baltimore not having as much pressure of all of the hometown hype in this first game. We’ll see.
Gone from the Ravens offense are WR Anquan Boldin (trade) and TE Dennis Pitta (injury). RB Ray Rice and WR Torrey Smith will now have even more responsibility in QB Joe Flacco’s offense. Flacco threw two touchdown passes and four interceptions in a lackluster pre-season. He must pick it up now that the games are for real. Especially after signing a very lucrative contract extension. RB Bernard Pierce should see action in the backfield to spell Rice.
The Broncos offense is clearly led by QB Peyton Manning (4,659 yards, 37 TD’s and 11 INT’s in 2012). Unlike the Raven’s, Denver’s offense got stronger in the offseason with the addition of WR Wes Welker and the drafting of RB Montee Ball. With returning players WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Eric Decker, RB Ronnie Hillman and RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard.
On defense, Baltimore will be missing LB Ray Lewis who has retired and S Ed Reed who has gone to Houston. Lewis brought a swagger and energy to the unit and Reed was a master of takeaways. Even so, the Raven’s seem to be solid defensively coming into the season. Newcomers DE Chris Canty and former Bronco LB Elvis Dumervil will line up alongside the likes of NT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Lardarius Webb and S Michael Huff giving them a formidable defensive unit.
Surprisingly, Denver had the third best run defense in the NFL last season giving up only 91.1 yards per game and also sported the league’s best third-down defense. LB Wesley Woodyard was the only player in the NFL last season to record at least 100 tackles, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions. However, they will be without several key players from that 2102 unit. DE Von Miller (18.5 sacks in 2012) is serving a suspension, Dumervil (11 sacks) is with Baltimore and CB Champ Baily is out with an injury.
This game looks like a toss up to me and I am a little surprised that Denver is such a big betting favorite at – 9.5 now. No question that Manning and Co. will score points but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will blow out Baltimore. I think Flacco will be able to eat up some clock with his offense and put some point of his own up on the board. With 2 key players missing for Denver defensively it shouldn’t be that difficult.
I see a high scoring game and so do the oddsmakers as the over/under total sits at 48. A high number for an opener but one I see being surpassed tonight. Look for an entertaining, high scoring game tonight.
The Pick: Over 48 points
Good Luck
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