Went 1-1 yesterday - let's see if we can do better today. Let's look at some numbers:
Gby 5 12 7 13 5 10
-3.5 Philly 2 29 10 1 3 31
Line opened at -3.5 currently -5.5 . Gby is better in passing off at 12 vs 29; rushing def at 7 vs 10 and sagarin sched strength at 10 vs 31. Philadelphia is better in rushing off at 2 vs 5; passing def 1 vs 13 and sagarin rank at 3 vs 5.
One thing in the playoffs we often over look is schedule strength - both teams that had the better sched strength - prevailed yesterday. It's not a sure thing - wish it was but many times teams with weaker schedules get exposed in the playoffs.
Looking at games that have an opening line of 3.5 and comparing it to history data indicates take the away team as they can keep it close as well as possibly take it su.
In the Washington TB game - Wash has the worst sched strength in the league at 32 while TB is at 28. However, based on the team defenses of both teams - theirs a pattern I follow and in this case as much as I'd like to see Washington get it done (Live in the area) - I think TB takes it.
My Plays today:
1. Gby +5
2. TB -3
Good luck all
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