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Underdogs in Week One Division Games

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Prospect
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Joined: Jul, 2022
Posts: 42
Posted: #1

Hey guys,

 

Going back to data since 2005, I've found that underdogs in Week 1 Divisional matchups are 58-35-3 ATS (62.37%). This number seems almost too high. Do you guys think underdogs are due for regression or will they keep covering at such a high rate? It makes sense that divisional matchups (where the teams know each other well) would give the underdogs an advantage, but I'm not sure. 

 

Here is the link to the page for this data on a site that I started: https://trendsagainstthespread.com/spread-data/divisional-matchups-trend/ 

 

Let me know what you guys think. 

 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 2752
Posted: #2

@TrendsATS

 Covers 600 podcast touched on this a few weeks ago, and last time I checked there were 11 home dogs set for this Week 1. The guest on the show (Jason Logan?) said he was still not going to trust the Jets or Seattle (both home dogs) to cover though, but would be open to others

 
Prospect
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Joined: Jul, 2022
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Posted: #3

@Sidehatch

 I’m only talking about Divisional matchup underdogs in Week 1. Not home underdogs. 

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2020
Posts: 406
Posted: #4

That's a good trend to keep track of.

There's also a Super Bowl loser losing the spread in week 1 trend. This trend is connected to your trend since the Bengals are playing against their divisional rival the Steelers. Take the Steelers ATS to cover both trends.

 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 47
Posted: #5

Jets +6 :) 

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