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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Very good statistics article on the Pats fumbles since 2006 rule change....

    vanzack
    Europa
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    revengeissweet1
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    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 9:54 AM ET #1

    I personally don't think much of all the "deflategate" hype....

    But this article presents some compelling statistics to show that since the 2006 rule change (lobbied by Tom Brady) to allow teams to provide their own footballs, the Pats have dramatically (and statistically significantly) reduced their fumbling.

    https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    I personally don't think much of all the "deflategate" hype....

    But this article presents some compelling statistics to show that since the 2006 rule change (lobbied by Tom Brady) to allow teams to provide their own footballs, the Pats have dramatically (and statistically significantly) reduced their fumbling.

    https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007

     
    Europa
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:04 AM ET #2

    There is something cooking inside that pot, Van. So much to the Robert Kraft who said yesterday that BB and TB have never lied to him.  
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    There is something cooking inside that pot, Van. So much to the Robert Kraft who said yesterday that BB and TB have never lied to him.  
     
    Champ_Iz_Here
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:08 AM ET #3

    throw the book at these cheating clowns. 
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    throw the book at these cheating clowns. 
     
    revengeissweet1
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:10 AM ET #4

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.
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    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.
     
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:26 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.
    Perhaps you could post one or two of those, just to help us get over it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.
    Perhaps you could post one or two of those, just to help us get over it.
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:35 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.

    Im not "under" anything.

    These are raw statistics.  That interests me.  In fact, of all the blubbering idiots on ESPN talking about this, I could care less what they say and have not commented once on the subject.

    This is exactly what I said it is.  Compelling statistic evidence that the pats fumbling has gone way down since 2006.  Maybe it is because they trained and practiced it.  This does not show causation, just correlation - so calm the f down junior.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.

    Im not "under" anything.

    These are raw statistics.  That interests me.  In fact, of all the blubbering idiots on ESPN talking about this, I could care less what they say and have not commented once on the subject.

    This is exactly what I said it is.  Compelling statistic evidence that the pats fumbling has gone way down since 2006.  Maybe it is because they trained and practiced it.  This does not show causation, just correlation - so calm the f down junior.

     
    thorpe
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:50 AM ET #7

    Pats are raising on a busted flush.  They may be good at business and football, but Kraft, Bellicheck and Brady are all lousy liars. 

    You can only play with a deflated football for so long before other teams know, especially when so many Pats leave the team on poor terms.

    I remmember thinking a few years ago Brady was really good throwing the ball in bad weather, but now it makes more sense.

    I still think they just get a slap on the wrist after the Super Bowl.  Probably lose a 3rd round pick and fined 500,000.
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    Pats are raising on a busted flush.  They may be good at business and football, but Kraft, Bellicheck and Brady are all lousy liars. 

    You can only play with a deflated football for so long before other teams know, especially when so many Pats leave the team on poor terms.

    I remmember thinking a few years ago Brady was really good throwing the ball in bad weather, but now it makes more sense.

    I still think they just get a slap on the wrist after the Super Bowl.  Probably lose a 3rd round pick and fined 500,000.
     
    Triceratops
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 10:51 AM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by
    [Quote: Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.

    Im not "under" anything.
    These are raw statistics.  That interests me.  In fact, of all the blubbering idiots on ESPN talking about this, I could care less what they say and have not commented once on the subject.
    This is exactly what I said it is.  Compelling statistic evidence that the pats fumbling has gone way down since 2006.  Maybe it is because they trained and practiced it.  This does not show causation, just correlation - so calm the f down junior.


    I just read an article that looked at patriots fumbling before players played for them and after they left. It found in almost every case a player fumble rate dropped significantly while played at New England and went back up after trades to other teams

    On another note, I'd love to see stats on patriots fumbles on special teams compared to the rest of the league since 2007 since kickers from both teams use the same brand new balls
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    [Quote: Originally Posted by revengeissweet1:

    For every article or "proof" that there is that the ycheated, there's an equal one that states they didn't

    Get over it.

    Im not "under" anything.
    These are raw statistics.  That interests me.  In fact, of all the blubbering idiots on ESPN talking about this, I could care less what they say and have not commented once on the subject.
    This is exactly what I said it is.  Compelling statistic evidence that the pats fumbling has gone way down since 2006.  Maybe it is because they trained and practiced it.  This does not show causation, just correlation - so calm the f down junior.


    I just read an article that looked at patriots fumbling before players played for them and after they left. It found in almost every case a player fumble rate dropped significantly while played at New England and went back up after trades to other teams

    On another note, I'd love to see stats on patriots fumbles on special teams compared to the rest of the league since 2007 since kickers from both teams use the same brand new balls
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 1:28 PM ET #9

    Yeah, Vanz, I posted this as well. It is quite a coincidence. It's funny that gamblers are always looking for a statistical edge and here is one that I had never come across. I'd be interested too see the Pats numbers against the spread vs the rest of the league, from pre 2006 and after 2006.
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    Yeah, Vanz, I posted this as well. It is quite a coincidence. It's funny that gamblers are always looking for a statistical edge and here is one that I had never come across. I'd be interested too see the Pats numbers against the spread vs the rest of the league, from pre 2006 and after 2006.
     
    lordzud
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 1:32 PM ET #10

    I read that...

    Belichick puts fumblers on the bench and keeps them there. I watch my home team the Chicago Bulls play basketball. When a player, star or otherwise, doesn't play defense Coach Thibidou puts them on the bench and keeps them there. 

    It works. But back to this deflate gate crap we have all gotten so sick of. The crack investigator will come out with a report a week or two after the super bowl and we will then hopefully find out what this equipment manager did to the balls and how long he did it. Until then I am not listening to anybodies opinion who is ignorant and you know who that is? ALL OF US.

    Meanwhile...I like Seattle but I am waiting for the line to move my way. I have an account at a terrible book, Bodog, for one express purpose. They often have the best line on underdogs. Come on squares who always bet favorites, open an account at Bodog and pound that line up to Seattle +3 or Seattle money line +110. 

    Thanks for the picks Van.
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    I read that...

    Belichick puts fumblers on the bench and keeps them there. I watch my home team the Chicago Bulls play basketball. When a player, star or otherwise, doesn't play defense Coach Thibidou puts them on the bench and keeps them there. 

    It works. But back to this deflate gate crap we have all gotten so sick of. The crack investigator will come out with a report a week or two after the super bowl and we will then hopefully find out what this equipment manager did to the balls and how long he did it. Until then I am not listening to anybodies opinion who is ignorant and you know who that is? ALL OF US.

    Meanwhile...I like Seattle but I am waiting for the line to move my way. I have an account at a terrible book, Bodog, for one express purpose. They often have the best line on underdogs. Come on squares who always bet favorites, open an account at Bodog and pound that line up to Seattle +3 or Seattle money line +110. 

    Thanks for the picks Van.
     
    statfreak
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 1:45 PM ET #11

    will the pats be able to have their football inflated at 12.5 for the superbowl or not??? thats what matters
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    will the pats be able to have their football inflated at 12.5 for the superbowl or not??? thats what matters
     
    gilligansisland
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 4:58 PM ET #12

    Don't you think an ex-player or an ex-coach would have spilled the beans on the Patriots by now if they've been doing it since 2006???????

    Some players and coaches have left there since then and they all didn't love the Pats.

    They haven't even proved that it was done in one game and some of you  now are positive that they've been doing it since 2006.

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    Don't you think an ex-player or an ex-coach would have spilled the beans on the Patriots by now if they've been doing it since 2006???????

    Some players and coaches have left there since then and they all didn't love the Pats.

    They haven't even proved that it was done in one game and some of you  now are positive that they've been doing it since 2006.

     
    Triceratops
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 5:22 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by gilligansisland:

    Don't you think an ex-player or an ex-coach would have spilled the beans on the Patriots by now if they've been doing it since 2006???????
    Some players and coaches have left there since then and they all didn't love the Pats.
    They haven't even proved that it was done in one game and some of you  now are positive that they've been doing it since 2006.


    Why would anyone outside of Brady, the ball boy, and maybe a coach need to know about it?
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    Quote Originally Posted by gilligansisland:

    Don't you think an ex-player or an ex-coach would have spilled the beans on the Patriots by now if they've been doing it since 2006???????
    Some players and coaches have left there since then and they all didn't love the Pats.
    They haven't even proved that it was done in one game and some of you  now are positive that they've been doing it since 2006.


    Why would anyone outside of Brady, the ball boy, and maybe a coach need to know about it?
     
    Triceratops
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 5:29 PM ET #14

    Also, the ball boys make little to no money from wages paid by the team, almost all of their income comes from tips from the players.  I wonder who the main tipper would be for the ball boy that handles the game balls?  
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    Also, the ball boys make little to no money from wages paid by the team, almost all of their income comes from tips from the players.  I wonder who the main tipper would be for the ball boy that handles the game balls?  
     
    mbialowas
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 5:41 PM ET #15

    The way I  see it is it's the NFL fault. Why would  it come to this? They should be checking air pressures throughout game. Why didnt one ref ever notice an under inflated ball since 2006? Not one ref(who has his mits on the ball after every play),  or defensive player has never  noticed an under inflated ball? Since  2006? That right there tells me they haven't been deflating balls

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    The way I  see it is it's the NFL fault. Why would  it come to this? They should be checking air pressures throughout game. Why didnt one ref ever notice an under inflated ball since 2006? Not one ref(who has his mits on the ball after every play),  or defensive player has never  noticed an under inflated ball? Since  2006? That right there tells me they haven't been deflating balls

     
    3825
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 8:59 PM ET #16

    a couple of statistics assistant professors from Loyola and Skidmore have an interesting retort to the aforementioned article on deadspin tonight.   Pretty good stuff on the data used by the sharp football folks.  A decent read.
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    a couple of statistics assistant professors from Loyola and Skidmore have an interesting retort to the aforementioned article on deadspin tonight.   Pretty good stuff on the data used by the sharp football folks.  A decent read.
     
    Onthereal
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2015 - 9:40 PM ET #17

    That's the article that interested me. Couldn't believe the stats.

    Then notice how the players do that leave the Pats. Their fumbles at least double.
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    That's the article that interested me. Couldn't believe the stats.

    Then notice how the players do that leave the Pats. Their fumbles at least double.
     
     
    Fat_Stacks
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2015 - 1:39 AM ET #18

    This counters everything 

    https://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710

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    This counters everything 

    https://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710

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