Hey covers ! Last slate of games before the SB. This has been a weird year. Started off down but, have since turned it around since December. Last NFL post was on the eagles - 7, which should’ve hit, but Jake Elliot missed two extra points, which cost me the win. Even if he just missed one of them, I push. Anyways we move on. Here we go. Philly runs the ball @ 55.93% of the time. Wash runs the ball @ 48.35 % of the time. We all know , that teams that run the ball effectively, eat a large % of the clock. Hurts is hurt. Even healthy, he’s not an effective passer. Philly will run , run and run some more. Since week 13 , Washington’s defense has stepped up, they’ve been giving up 0.032 EPA , which is a stark improvement from 0.049 the previous weeks. Philly only gives up 0.297 opponent pts per play and only allows 4.8 opponent yards per play. Philly’s EPA defense vs the pass is a - 0.10 Washington isn’t bad vs the pass themselves @ 0.22. Philly vs the run is even better @ - 0.00. Washington isn’t great vs the run , which is why Philly will continuously run the ball. Also Washington is 10th vs the pass, so Hurts won’t get too many opportunities to pass for explosive plays. Philly’s defense is 3rd in the league in drop back EPA allowed on D.They only allow- 0.024 per play . The more the minus is on defense the better. Okay. This is where we really get into the super trends, Philly is 20 - 4 to the under in January ( post season) since 2011 !!! That’s what really solidified this play for me. Washington is the 3rd slowes team in the league @ ( 65.4 plays per game) and Philly is right behind them @ ( 64.8 ) plays per game ( 5th ) This is the championship game. A division rival game and two methodical offenses , and the best defensive team ( Philly ) playing @ home for a chance to go to the SB. Neither team can afford many mistakes. This game will be played tight throughout. The total dropped from 47.5 to 46.5 just this morning. We all know, the public loves overs, and this total has dropped significantly. Under 47.5 3,750/3,000 and small play on the Skins + 6, 550/500. GL
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