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#1
Baltimore -2
The Ravens historically start out the season strong at home under Coach John Harbaugh. Add to this fact that they also tend to have one of the biggest home field advantages in the nfl (approx. 77% winning percentage at home) and getting this game at anything under 3 seems like a bargain to me.
Baltimore made a lot of changes after last seasons disappointing 8-8 finish. For starters, the improvements they've made to the offensive line will pay huge dividends in their run game and in protecting Joe Flacco, who was sacked the second most times in the league last season with first year starting center Gino Gradkowski calling the protections. Gradkowski was rated 35th out of 35 centers in the NFL last year. This year, Jeremy Zuttah is the starting center and judging by how well the Ravens protected the QB's and ran the ball in the preseason (Baltimore led the NFL in rushing yards in the preseason), he appears to be a big improvement. Rick Wagner takes over at right tackle for the false start prone Michael Oher who went to the Titans via free agency.
Baltimore has also revamped their passing attack under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. The addition of Steve Smith Sr. from Carolina this off season, as well as the return from injury of Dennis Pitta, and the emergence of 2nd year fullback Kyle Juszczyk, should allow Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones to return to terrorizing defenses over the top, which is what they are best at.
From the Bengals side, we have Andy Dalton who has been nothing short of terrible against the Ravens. He finished last season completing just 51% of his passes, 4 TD's and 7 picks against the Ravens, with a QB rating of just 53.6. Flaccos numbers against the Bengals last year weren't much better, but his numbers were effected by playing the last game of the season with a knee brace on. The knee injury led to a 1 TD 3 INT effort to close out the season. Flacco posted a QB rating of over 100 in 2011 and 2012 against the Bengals.
I suspect the pundits will begin to hedge their bets on who wins the AFC north after this game. A 10 to 14 point victory seems the most likely outcome for Baltimore in this match up.
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