*****Week 10 NFL Reading Material on all Matchups*****

Jets at Browns Rex Ryan’s team has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the season, which includes a 4-0 mark on the road. New York heads to Cleveland this Sunday with an offense that has averaged 29 points per game on the road. Cleveland began the season as a lost cause inside a difficult AFC North, but the Browns are starting to make headlines the last few weeks with blowout wins over the Saints and Patriots. The Browns try to run their winning streak to three when the Jets come to town, as New York escaped Detroit with an overtime victory. The Jets needed a late rally to force overtime, but failed to cover as five-point road favorites. New York has finished 'over' the total in all six victories, while going 'under' in both losses to the Packers and Ravens. The Jets are making their first trip to Cleveland since 2006, when Eric Mangini coached in New York, as the Browns' head man faces his old team for the first time since getting fired in 2008. The Browns have turned into a solid 'over' play since consecutive 'unders' to start the season. Cleveland has cashed five of six 'overs,' while going 4-2 ATS the last six games as an underdog. Since Colt McCoy has taken under center for the Browns, Cleveland is 2-1 SU/ATS, as the former Texas Longhorn has led this team to 64 points the last two weeks. The League is 8-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since December 23, 2007 within 3 of pick on the road when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The League is 0-10-1 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since September 28, 2008 within 3 of pick at home when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since September 17, 2000 as a dog the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when they punted three or fewer punts last week. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since September 23, 2007 the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 0-8 OU (-9.2 ppg) since October 02, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks. The Browns are 0-8 OU (-13.1 ppg) since September 18, 1994 within 3 of pick at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Browns are 6-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since November 07, 1999 as a home dog when they covered by 10+ points last week. Mangini faces his old team week after he beat mentor Belichick; he has few former Jets on his team now. Rex Ryan’s brother is Browns’ DC. Jets are 4-0 on road, with last two wins coming in dramatic fashion late in game. Red flag for Jets—no takeaways in last two games (-5 TO’s, still +5 for season). Browns beat Saints/Pats in last two games after 1-5 start; they’re 4-2-1 vs. spread as underdog this year. Since 2007, Browns are 10-6 as a home dog. Cleveland won three of four series games, with all four games decided by 7 or less points. Six of last seven Jet games, five of last six Cleveland games went over total. League-wide, home dogs are 13-10-3 vs. spread in non-divisional games.

Bengals at Colts Cincinnati was dealt another devastating loss on Monday night by falling short in a 27-21 setback to Pittsburgh. The Bengals are in the cellar of the AFC North at 2-6 as things don't get easier this week with a trip to Indianapolis. The Colts are still dinged up offensively with a myriad of injuries, but Indianapolis starts the day tied atop the AFC South at 5-3. The Bengals were an outstanding play as an underdog when they won the division last season, covering seven of nine games. This season has been a different story as the Bengals own a 1-3 SU/ATS mark when receiving points. Four of five games in Cincinnati's current five-game skid have finished 'over' the total, while the defense has allowed at least 22 points in each of these losses. To think the Colts will automatically bounce back after losing at Philadelphia last week isn't strong reasoning. Since 2006, Indianapolis is just 4-9 ATS coming off a SU defeat, but two of those wins have come this season against the Giants and Chiefs. The Colts have alternated 'overs' and 'unders' each of the last seven games, fresh off an 'over' of 46 ½ against the Eagles last Sunday. The Bengals are 0-9-1 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 4, 2007 when they trailed at the half against a divisional opponent last game. The Bengals are 0-9 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 29, 1992 as a 7+ dog the week after in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-8-1 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since October 30, 2005 after playing the Steelers. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-8.6 ppg) since December 29, 2002 as a 7+ dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 8-0 OU (18.5 ppg) since November 15, 1992 as a favorite the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Colts are 0-8 OU (-10.2 ppg) since September 13, 1992 after their opponent played the Steelers. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the Bengals’ road tilts this season, due to a defense that has surrendered 26.8 PPG in those affairs. The only decent showing the unit had was back in a win at Carolina (20-7), and that’s because they had a rookie quarterback behind center. This week, Cincinnati faces Indianapolis and some guy named Peyton Manning. Short work week, short (2-hour) road trip for Cincy squad that’s lost its last five games, allowing average of 27 ppg. Indy won last six series games by average score of 35-19; Bengals’ last series was in ’97. Colts are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 24-10-13 points Cincy is 1-3 on road in ’10, 0-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-3-7 points (only win was in rain at Carolina)- they allowed 10-7 points in their only two wins. Since 2001, Colts are just 15-23 vs. spread in game following a loss, but they’re 2-0 in that role this year. In their last three games, Cincy opponents started eight of 35 drives in Bengal territory. Four of last five Bengal games went over total.

Titans at Dolphins Both teams have shaken things up recently with former Marshall teammates getting thrown into this week's storyline. Randy Moss will make his Titans' debut after he was picked up off waivers during the bye week, hoping to bolster a beat-up Tennessee receiving corpse. Moss' quarterback with the Thundering Herd, Chad Pennington, has been thrust into the starting role this week for the Dolphins as he replaces the ineffective Chad Henne. The Titans look to rebound after losing late at San Diego two weeks ago, 33-25 as six-point road 'dogs. Tennessee's offense has been impressive even with the revolving door of Vince Young and Kerry Collins at quarterback as this team has put up 25 points or more in six of eight games. The Titans find ways to cover as road favorites by compiling an 8-4 ATS mark since 2007 when laying points on the highway. Pennington hasn't played since a season-ending shoulder injury in the third game of 2009. He takes over for Henne, as the ex-Michigan quarterback has thrown 10 interceptions, while the Dolphins have reached the end zone just three times in the last three weeks. Pennington led the NFL in completion percentage (67%) in his marvelous 2008 season in which the Dolphins finished 11-5 and captured the AFC East title. Miami is 0-3 SU at home, while owning a 2-9 ATS ledger at Sun Life Stadium against non-division opponents under Tony Sparano. The Dolphins have lost all three of their home games and all three have gone ‘over’ this season. The quarterback switch to Chad Pennington might keep things under control against Tennessee this weekend, but the Fins have also allowed 31, 41 and 23 in those home setbacks. And in case you’re wondering, the Titans have put up 25-plus in all four of their road affairs this season. The Titans are 7-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Dolphins are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 16, 1992 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks. The Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS (15.7 ppg) since October 30, 2005 when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 0-7 OU (-9.0 ppg) since November 25, 2007 within 3 of pick on the road versus any team with fewer wins. The Dolphins are 9-0 OU (8.7 ppg) since December 02, 2007 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road. The Dolphins are 8-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since October 24, 2004 as a home dog after a straight up loss on the road as a dog. Moss makes Tennessee debut for team that scored 31.5 ppg in last four games (3-1), but is missing top WR Britt (hamstring). Titans are 3-1 on road this year, losing only at San Diego after Britt/Young both got hurt- they’re 22-12-1 vs. spread in last 35 road games. Miami is woeful 16-41 vs spread in last 57 home games; they’re 0-3 at home this year, losing by 8-27-1 point, allowing 31.7 ppg. Tennessee scored 29+ points in all five wins; they’re 0-3 if they score less than 29. Miami has only five takeaways in last five games (-7), giving up three defensive TDs and a kick return for TD. Four of last five Titan games went over total; three of last four Miami games stayed under. Pennington getting first start of year for Miami.

Texans at Jaguars A pair of 4-4 teams that are basically in a must-win situation lock horns in Jacksonville. Houston has dropped four of six games since a 2-0 start as the Texans try to avenge a sweep by the Jaguars last season. Jacksonville is fresh off the bye week after its annihilation of Dallas two weeks ago, 35-17 as 6 ½-point underdogs. The Jags have shown signs of life offensively by tallying at least 31 points in three of four victories, which is good news against a Texans' defense allowing 28.3 ppg this season (tied for 29th alongside Jacksonville). The 'over' has translated nicely for Jacksonville by hitting in six of eight games, while Houston is 5-3 to the 'over.' Jacksonville grabbed both meetings last season as an underdog, as the Jags are 3-0 the last three home matchups with the Texans. Houston is just 1-5 ATS the previous six games, while going 2-8 ATS under Gary Kubiak in the first of consecutive road games (Texans battle the Jets next week). The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 roll in the last six between these two. Also, Houston (5-3) and Jacksonville (6-2) have both been ‘over’ teams but this week’s total (49.5) is the highest on the board. The Texans are 8-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since October 26, 2003 as a road dog the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Texans are 0-6 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since October 10, 2004 when they are 500 after playing at home. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since September 28, 2003 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 7-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when their dps was negative in their last two games. Texans allowed 31 ppg in last four games, have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they don’t. Houston lost last three visits here by 37-17/30-27ot/23-18 scores, as home side won five of last six series games, with average total of 54.0. Texans lost three of last four games and trailed by 10 with 5:00 left in game they won- they’re 2-1 on road, with average total in those three games, 53.0. Houston is 8-4 in last 12 games as underdog of 3 or less points. Jags have only played two games decided by less than 10 points. Home favorites in divisional games are 6-14 vs spread in NFL this year. This is first time since Week 1 that Jacksonville is favored.

Chiefs at Broncos Kansas City leads the AFC West halfway through the season at 5-3, but the Chiefs should be sitting at 6-2 after blowing numerous opportunities in last week's overtime loss at Oakland. Denver returns to play in the United States following a deflating defeat in London to San Francisco as the Broncos try to improve on a dreadful 2-6 record. The Broncos fell short in a 24-20 home loss to the Jets in mid-October, which seemed like Denver could hang with some of the big dogs in the AFC. Things fell apart at the seams the next week when the Broncos were beat down by the Raiders, 59-14. Following the London loss to the Niners, Denver looks to improve on a 5-14-1 ATS ledger at Invesco Field since 2008. Josh McDaniels' Broncos began last season at 6-0 SU/ATS, but are just 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS the past 18 games. The Chiefs' top-ranked rushing offense was limited to 104 yards in the Oakland loss, 75 yards below their season average. This can be a good week for Kansas City to bounce back against a Denver run defense that is allowing 154.6 yards/game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Todd Haley's squad has won only one of four road games, but the Chiefs have been right there in all three defeats at Indianapolis, Houston, and Oakland. Five of the last six in this series have flown ‘over’ the total, including a pair of shootouts (44-24, 44-13) last season. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since December 15, 1996 the week after a straight up loss on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2006 on the road after playing on the road. The Broncos are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since October 04, 1992 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Chiefs are 0-7 OU (-6.7 ppg) since October 16, 1997 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. Chiefs’ 44-24 win here LY ended 0-8 skid at Invesco, in series where home side is still 12-3. KC is 1-3 on road, losing last three- their last two games both went OT. Four of their last seven games overall were decided by four or less points. Broncos lost last five games, allowing 34.5 ppg in last four; since starting LY 6-0, Denver is now 4-16 in last 20 games- they’ve given up 17 TDs on 45 drives over last four games, and allowed 14+ second half points in six of last seven games. Chiefs are 1-3 if they allow more than 14 points; they had 228+ rushing yards in three of last four games. This is just second time since 2007 that Chiefs are road favorite. Over is 6-2 in Denver games, 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four contests.

Minnesota at Chicago Even though most would believe that this NFC North matchup is a defensive battle, the ‘over’ has gone 6-3-1 in the last 10 encounters. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since September 29, 1996 on the road after a win at home in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Vikings are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 13, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road after playing at home as a TD+ favorite. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 16, 2001 as a road favorite when they lost their last two road games. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week. The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since September 23, 2007 within 3 of pick after a straight up win as a favorite. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since October 30, 1994 as a road favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a favorite. The Vikings are 7-0 OU (16.9 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a road favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. Home side won six of last seven series games; Vikings are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing in OT LY (last win here, 34-31 in ’07). Average total in last four series games, 62.3. Minnesota is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 5-9-4-10 points, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three away games (gave up seven TDs on 18 drives in last two). Both teams have already played five games decided by 5 or less points. Underdog is 6-1-1 vs. spread in Chicago games this year; Bears lost last two home games (Seattle/Redskins)- they’re 5-1 if they score 19+ points. Home teams are 16-21-1 vs. spread (23-15 SU) in divisional games so far this season. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under total; last five Minnesota games went over.

Carolina at Tampa Bay The Bucs beat the Panthers 20-7 in Week 2, and the ‘under’ was never in doubt. Carolina has busted 20 points once all year, which is why you have a total of 37. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since November 18, 2001 as a 7+ dog the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 17, 1995 when they lost by 21+ points last week against a divisional opponent. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 23, 1997 on the road when they got swept last week as a dog. The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since December 08, 2008 when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since December 21, 2008 at home after a straight up loss. The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-10.9 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a 7+ dog after a straight up loss as a dog. The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU (-10.8 ppg) since November 13, 2006 vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Buccaneers are 0-7 OU (-7.7 ppg) since October 25, 2009 after a straight up loss. NFC South home teams are 0-6 vs spread (2-4 SU) in divisional games this year. Carolina won six of last seven visits here, in series where road team is 8-4 in last 12 meetings. Tampa Bay (+3) won first meeting 20-7 in Charlotte back in Week 2, with three takeaways (+3) and four sacks. Panther QB Moore (shoulder) is out for year, so up to rookies Clausen/Pike to move ball enough to win battle for field position (-19/-8 in last two games). Bucs are 5-3 despite being dog in six of eight games; they’re 0-1-1 as favorite in ’10, winning those two games by 1-3 points- the win at Carolina is their only win this year by more than a FG. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under the total.

St. Louis at San Francisco The ‘under’ has been the clear-cut look here, with seven of the last eight failing to eclipse the closing number. The Rams put up a total of six points in two outings against San Francisco last season. The Rams are 10-0-1 ATS (7.4 ppg) since October 8, 2006 after a win against a non-divisional team. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-15.8 ppg) since December 30, 2007 on the road vs a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 0-12 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 27, 2003 when they had at least four sacks last game in a win. The Rams are 8-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since December 27, 1998 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The 49ers are 10-0-1 OU (10.9 ppg) since December 03, 2000 the week after their bye. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-6.4 ppg) since December 21, 2008 vs a divisional opponent. Niners are 8-2 in last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but don’t see gritty Rams (6-1-1 vs. spread, only one loss by more than 4 points) as 6-point dog to disappointing 49er squad that’s using former 3rd-stringer Smith as starting QB. (Rams have three LBs who are former Buckeyes, just like Smith). SF is 2-6 despite being favored in six of first eight games; they’re 1-2 at home (only win 17-9 vs. Raiders), 2-4 vs. spread as favorite. Rams held four of last five opponents under 90 yards rushing, but Bradford still looking for first road win (0-3, scored 14-6-17 points (four TDs on 30 drives)). Lions are only team this season to score more than 17 points against the Rams. Six of eight St Louis games stayed under the total.

Seattle at Arizona This pair played a few weeks ago as the Seahawks captured a 22-10 home win over the Cardinals. The 32 points never threatened the closing number (40.5) and it’s hard to see these backup quarterbacks doing the same, but fans in Arizona (see above) have witnessed some high-scoring affairs so far. The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-15.9 ppg) since December 28, 2008 after playing at home. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since December 21, 2002 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 28, 2008 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Seahawks are 0-7 OU (-7.6 ppg) since October 15, 1989 as a road dog the week after a straight up loss at home in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Cardinals are 9-0-1 OU (6.5 ppg) since December 26, 2004 when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. The Cardinals have also seen six of their first eight games go ‘over’ and all three of the games at home have been ‘over’ winners too. Seattle heads to town and both these teams have had a knack of scoring defensive and special teams touchdowns, which help ‘over’ tickets. The total was hovering around 40 points, but has jumped up to 42 at some outfits. Seattle got outscored 74-10 in last two games, as numerous roster moves have failed to patch holes on both lines. Seahawks lost last four visits to desert, by 6-3-13-11 points, with average total in those games, 49.3. Arizona (+7) lost 22-10 at Seattle three weeks ago, turning ball over five times, completing just 12-33 passes, converting 2 of 12 on 3rd down. Seahawks are 1-3 on road under Carroll, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 17-17-30 points (won 23-20 at Chicago). Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, giving up 29 ppg; they’re 0-2-1 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home (all three games went over). Only once in last seven games have Cardinals averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants New York held off Dallas 41-35 in a MNF affair on Oct. 25. The game went ‘over’ easily and the oddsmakers are expecting more of the same with another 45-point total posted this week. Four of the last five in this series have been ‘over’ winners. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since October 14, 2007 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since November 22, 2001 after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog.The Giants are 11-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 06, 2005 the week after a straight up win in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 0-7 ATS (-16.3 ppg) since December 17, 2006 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The League is 12-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since September 21, 2008 as a road 7+ dog after playing on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (12.9 ppg) since September 15, 2003 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (8.0 ppg) since October 01, 1989 as a dog when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. The Giants are 9-0 OU (8.0 ppg) since November 25, 2007 as a 7+ favorite after a straight up win. The Giants are 8-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since October 21, 2007 when they won by 21+ points last week. Woeful Dallas changed head coaches Monday; it means they’ve got new defensive guru but same offensive one, as Garrett is interim coach. Problem is, they’ve got same ragtag OL protecting 38-year old Kitna. Cowboys lost last five games, giving up 41-35-45 points in last three (!4 TDs on last 35 drives)- they’re 1-2 as road dog this year, with road losses by 6-3-38 points. Giants (+3) outrushed Pokes 200-35 three weeks ago in 41-35 road win; they’ve won five games in row (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 36 ppg in last four wins. Methodical Giants ran ball for 167-200-197 yards in last three games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread in last eight tries as double digit favorite. Last five Dallas games, last three Giant tilts all stayed under total.

Lions at Bills The Lions are 0-10-2 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since September 24, 2006 when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Bills are 10-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since October 09, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Bills are 7-0-2 ATS (6.4 ppg) since December 05, 2004 the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 9-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since November 04, 2007 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Lions are 7-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since December 10, 2006 after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Bills are 8-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 25, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. Detroit QB Stafford is out (shoulder); looks like 2nd-stringer Hill will get nod for improving Lion squad that lost last 24 road games SU but is 7-1 vs spread this year overall, covering last five games. Lions are 3-1 as road dog this year- they scored 44-37 points in their wins, scored 20+ in four of six losses. Winless Buffalo is favored after losing last three games by FG each; they’ve converted 32 of last 56 on 3rd down (57.1%), but turned ball over eight times (-5) in those games. Bills are 4-7 vs. spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Home team won last four series games, with Lions losing last two visits here, 22-13/24-17. Last five Detroit games went over the total. Lions were only team to lose to 1-15 Rams LY.

Patriots at Steelers The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since October 22, 2000 on the road when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATS (5.2 ppg) since October 25, 1992 as a dog after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since September 11, 2000 as a road dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (12.9 ppg) since November 12, 1995 as a dog when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.

Eagles at Redskins The Eagles are 9-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since November 10, 1991 within 3 of pick on the road the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since November 25, 2002 on the road when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since September 15, 1997 on the road vs a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. The Redskins are 0-9 ATS (-16.0 ppg) since September 14, 1998 at home on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are 0-11-1 OU (-11.8 ppg) since October 02, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Eagles are 0-7 OU (-9.5 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average. The Redskins are 0-8-2 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 01, 1998 as a home dog vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road. Washington and Philadelphia renew their rivalry on Monday when the pair meets for the second time this season. Donovan McNabb returned to his former digs in a Redskins uniform on Oct. 13 as his teammates escaped with a 17-12 win. Even though the closing number (44) was never threatened, it looked like it could’ve been after Washington jumped out to a 14-0 lead after one and held a 17-6 lead at the break. After Philadelphia QB Michael Vick went down with a rib injury, backup Kevin Kolb managed to put up nine points the rest of the way. Vick is ready to go this week and he’s playing with a ton of confidence these days, yet the total is a couple points lower at 42. Washington is rested off the bye week, but the offense (19.4 PPG) has looked shaky at times this season. They did put up 27 and 24 against the Texans and Colts respectively in D.C. and some pundits would argue that the Eagles defense isn’t that strong this season and comparable to those units. Philadelphia has actually played well on the road from an offensive standpoint, posting 35, 28, 27 and 19. And the aforementioned defense we talked about, has given up 24-plus in three of those affairs, including 30-plus twice. Including the earlier matchup this season, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in the last 10 encounters. McNabb won 17-12 in his return to Philly (+5) in Week 4, but completed just 8-19 passes in doing so (Skins ran ball for 169 yards); now, after he got benched at end of loss in their last game, questions have arisen as to how much faith Team Shanahan has in #5. Vick got hurt in first meeting, now he’s healthy; Eagles are 3-1 on road, scoring 27.3 ppg and they had 4th quarter lead in game they lost. Philly won eight of last ten visits here- they’re 2-3 as favorite this year. Redskins are 1-2 at home, with all three games decided by three points. Shanahan is 7-1 in last eight post-bye games, but Redskins are 1-4 vs. spread in last five as post-bye underdog. Last four Eagle games all went over the total.

1-0 this week in the NFL so far. Here’s my first two games of the day. GL!

Atlanta Falcons -1 WINNER

Cleveland Browns +3 Only two teams have scored more than 20 points against the Browns this season – Pittsburgh put up 28; Baltimore put up 24, and both those teams were at home. Eliminate those two contests, and the Browns have surrendered 17.3 ppg. And in the last two contests, Cleveland has held Drew Brees and the Saints and Tom Brady and the Patriots to 17 and 14 points, respectively.

Carolina Panthers +7 Even with almost every bet taking the Bucs, the line has moved from its opener of Bucs -7 to Bucs -6.5. This is a divisional match-up, which teams often "get up" for. Although Tampa Bay is 5-3, their margin of "points for" minus "points against" is a mediocre -33. Tampa Bay has had one blowout win (although over Carolina!), with their other four wins coming by a maximum margin of 3 points as follows: 3, 3, 1, 3.