I have a feeling that not only will the Chargers keep this close, but outright win this one.
Herbert is 2-3 against the Chiefs, but every game Herbert has lost to the Chiefs has been by a TD or less. The Chargers have been learning to keep most games close without their top two wideouts, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Getting both of those players back and Trey Pipkins at RT will be huge for the team. It won't entirely offset the losses of Austin Johnson and Otito Ogbonnia from an already suspect D-line, but Morgan Fox has stepped in admirably.
The Chiefs will be without both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, so the Chiefs are going to have to rely on Travis Kelce (more on this in a sec.) and their run game. The Chiefs have a fairly average run offense, which makes sense when you have Patrick Mahomes under center. But if I were them I'd pound the hell out of the Chargers D-line with both Pacheco and CEH. Fortunately for the Chargers the latter has been a fair-to-middling back, and Pacheco is still getting his feet wet as the lead back in KC.
Now normally I'd fear Kelce, but the great equalizer that is Derwin James has been able to successfully lock him up and turn him into a rather pedestrian TE.
These two teams play each other very well. I expect Ekeler to have a good game for the mere fact that the Chargers passing offense will be keeping the Chiefs D honest. They won't be able to stack the box like the 49ers (expectedly so) do with the Chargers rushing offense.
Barring any injury setbacks (and, hey, this is the Chargers we're talking about here... this could be likely to happen), the Chargers will keep this close. They should win this. I mean, they almost did in Arrowhead earlier in the season.
I trust the Chargers D (allowing 1885 yards) to defend the pass better than I do the Chiefs (2236).
Tail at your own risk, but these are the reasons why I'm betting the spread and ML. Kudos to those who got the line at +7 or +7.5 (I also got this at +5.5)
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