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For anyone questioning the spreads, these are SpreadEx Super Contest lines which were set on Wednesday.
For the purpose of Covers, the current lines and the *5-team 6-point teaser* will be posted after the following write-ups:
Falcons -3.5
Nice spot here for the Falcons, back-to-back home games since coming off their week 11 bye.
Chiefs are coming off an overtime win in Denver, with the Raiders up next on TNF - all three losses this season in similar spots:
lost @HOU after overtime win vs.SD
lost @PIT with OAK up next
lost vs.TB with DEN up next
lost @PIT with OAK up next
lost vs.TB with DEN up next
6 of 7 wins for the Falcons this season were by 7 points or more.
Off v Def matchups by DVOA are close, but the main advantage here is with the Falcons rushing attack.
Packers -6.5
The Packers were in free-fall before a big win in Philadelphia on MNF and are now very much in the division race with the Vikings & Lions still to come in Weeks 16 & 17.
Most of GB's recent losses were to teams with highly ranked pass offenses (by DVOA - DAL#2, ATL#1, IND#23?, TEN#7, WAS#6) - HOU have the #32 ranked pass offense.
Packers are the much better team by DVOA and are 3-1 at home this season. 4 of 5 wins for the Packers this season were by 7 points or more.
In injury news, it looks like Clay Matthews and Rodgers will be fine for this contest.
Texans have lost heavily in 3 of their 4 road games; sole road win was against the Jags by 3 points. Huge division game up next in Indianapolis, and given the state of the AFC South, that game is much more important than this one.
Off v Def matchups by DVOA favour the Packers, as expected, their #7 ranked rush defense should limit a banged up Lamar Miller, putting pressure on Osweiler.
Eagles -1
Both of these teams have played tough schedules this season (opponents played 0.550) and both have just one win from their last 5 games. Bengals have played the last two games close, but never really looked like winning either and are clearly struggling without AJ Green. This game is a must-win for the Eagles, in order to keep their slim Wild Card hopes alive.
Eagles are 1-5 on the road this season, but those losses came against DET, WAS, DAL, NYG, SEA - all have winning records (average win percentage across those teams is 0.709) and those teams are much better than the Bengals (except maybe the Lions, but the Eagles definitely should have won that game anyway).
The most favourable Off v Def matchup by DVOA favours the Eagles rushing attack. Eagles are the better team here, this matchup plays to their strengths, and they should be more motivated with playoff hopes on the line.
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