Had a very profitable Thanksgiving w a +1650 boosted SGP hit.
For Black Friday I'm on LV +13. Not feeling any of the props, I think it figures to be a very ugly and low scoring game where it could be hard to get over any prop numbers. I do like Kelce to score but +100 is not good enough for a TD bet for me.
Still looking through all the props and it might be a light card this week, not seeing a lot of prop matchups where I feel theres a strong edge right now. Only one play so far;
PHI +135 (I think Philly is the much better overall team based on their defense. We do have to hope Sirianni doesnt do anything stupid though which is a bit risky)
ARI +3.5 and +150 (the spot sets up well for ARI, coming off a division loss where they played very bad and MIN now returning home after 3 straight road games where they squeaked by vs bad teams)
Leans:
NYJ -105 (SEA coming off hard fought division game and going east for early start and NYJ coming off bye. Problem is it's the Jets. I just cant bring myself to pull the trigger when I have no idea if these guys are going to put forth any real effort at this point with the ashes of their season smoldering in the dumpster)
TB -5.5 (TB should roll here. Theyve improved quite a bit on defense and their offense is great. CAR coming off a heartbreaking loss where they left it all on the field to try and beat KC. Seems like a sure let down spot. I dont like to lay pts on the road though especially in division)
CIN -3 (CIN coming off bye, still in playoff hunt. Defense has been called out in public. PIT coming off physically tough division loss in the snow at the dawg pound. The rested and desperate team should get the win here. This one is probably going to be a play)
Will be back with props when I get more time to dig in fully
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