Week 16 Props n Plays

Not a very good week 15 for me. A couple plays like NYG +14.5 I was lucky to be able to get off with live bets and just lost juice, but I still booked a decent sized loss. My highest confidence play was the TB/LAC over and that was the only play I felt comfortable giving out to friends. Tells me I should've only played it and not all the other stuff I added later. 

I have noticed quite often that the very first play I make hits at a much higher rate than any other. This is my high confidence gut reaction play. My process is I make lines for every single game in the preseason. Then I adjust the next weeks numbers based on this week, so Sunday night I look at my sheet for week 16 and I see my preseason number and next to that I have my adjusted numbers, and next to that go the books opening numbers and we make plays based on that. 

Last week I had the TB/LAC total at 48.5, it opened at 45.5 so we bet over. There are rarely plays with a 3pt difference in spread or total. Then it dropped to 45 and I bet it again. Anyway, I talked about this before and I'll say it again, LESS IS MORE. That play was a big one and an easy win, and all I did by playing a lot more was turn a winning week into a decent loser

I posted a separate TNF thread with:

LAC -2.5

Ladd Mcconkey o66.5 rec yds

This week my first bet, probably best bet, and play that jumped out to me is:

MIN/SEA o42.5 (I have this at 46.5. Another rare one, anything higher than a 2pt difference in my numbers is big, most are equal or 1.5 or less)

Added:

SF +100 

I hate doing this, I rarely bet Bills games because I'm a homer but this is too many points coming home after 2 hard fought emotional roadies against real contenders and back and forth high scoring affairs. Now facing the lowly Pats, probably breathing a sigh of relief, still a division game, this sets up for an all out Pats effort and a Bill's let down spot. I think the Pats keep it close. I had this game at a flat 10 so I will gladly take these points. Pats can get the run game going and chew up clock and make this an uglier 24-17 type game. Heck even 30-17 blowout w garbage time TD wins. Drake Maye rushing will be key as well.

NE +14 large

Added:

Travis Kelce TD +200

Pat Freiermuth TD +325

Chris Boswell o1.5 fg 

Tank Bigsby o47.5 rush yds

@Yanasaur

 Bol this week

2-1 to start, hit Mcconkey and LAC but I had added Estime over a measly half yd receiving and he couldnt get it. 

Kind of liking Houston moneyline. I have a suspicion they win this game, dont care about mahomes starting. This feels an ugly Houston 20-17, 22-19 type game similar to when Houston beat Buffalo. I think Allen was playing through injury in that game even though he wasnt on the injury report and Mahomes' mobility being limited is going to be a big detriment. How many times does he bail them out of trouble by making a play w his legs? I think Houston can hold a lead all game and take this one.

Really starting to like NYG +9 as well. I know they stink but Atlanta stinks too. Who are they to be laying 9 with a rookie QB making his first start? They just beat the pathetic Raiders in an embarassing 15-9 game where they only scored 13 on offense. I dont see a double digit victory in this kid's first game and add in the kicking issues w Koo that could be enough to cost them the cover. Im gonna go ahead and make these both plays. 

Added:

HOU ML +150

NYG +9 and ML sprinkle +350

Y 

Couple more props for Saturday:

George Pickens out and these receiving props are still pretty dang low. Russell is gonna have to throw to someone. Hopefully we get a sweep on these, wont take too much to get there. 

Calvin Austin o37.5 rec yds

Najee Harris o10.5 rec yds

Darnell Washington o8.5 rec yds