Week 16 Survivor! Buffalo, Chicago or Houston?

Thanks for answering

Houston,  Cincinnati won there superbowl last week vs steelers and  plus a short week this week

Chicago, the Jags lose their last two and they get the first pick in the draft. The Jags need a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence is out there, and would likely declare for the draft if they are picking first. I post my plays and never try to convince anyone to follow them. A first for me, the answer is Chicago

@Rikolai

 Buffalo - they will play their starters the whole game and will pound NE as the new AFC East champs.

Bills Win Probability: 62.06019438%

That’s right, the Bills are the second-best team in the NFL. How could they not be? They have a top-seven offense and defense, per PFF’s opponent-adjusted grades, and continue to be the smartest organization in the NFL. They’ve created quite the foundation for Josh Allen to succeed, with a lot of early-down passes, play-action concepts, and a diverse group of receivers, and I love their overall disregard for the running game. New England will come into this game without top cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and right now, simply cannot move the ball through the air at all.

Patriots Win Probability: 37.93980562%

Yet, thanks to a rushing attack led by Cam Newton that is generating positive EPA/play, the Patriots have had a more than respectable offense. Their rushing ability is a good fit against a Bills defense that ranks last in PFF run-defense grade, while Jakobi Meyers could exploit some of Buffalo’s issues defending slot receivers. Allen remains somewhat volatile, so if Bill Belichick schemes up the right gameplan, New England certainly could pull off a surprising win here.

@KyBraveFan

 CHI vs JAX is a dangerous game. 

Bears Win Probability: 81.65%

It may not seem like it, but the Bears are right in the thick of the playoff race! Thus, they are going to be motivated to steamroll past the Jaguars, and they should be able to. Sure, their offensive success – 30+ points in each of the past three games – have come against poor defenses, but Jacksonville’s defense ranks last in yards/play. After Gardner Minshew was pressured on over 50% of his dropbacks last week, I’m also expecting Chicago’s pass defense to ambush him as well.

Jaguars Win Probability: 18.35%

Never count on Minshew! The Jaguars do have some playmakers offensively, and they may have the more reliable quarterback. All it takes is Mitch Trubisky committing a couple of turnovers, and it’s hard to ever rely on a defensive-first team to take care of business as a clear favorite.

Projected Winner: CHI by 8.92

Spread: CHI (-7.5)

Projected Spread: CHI (-10.39)

Moneyline Value: CHI

Over/Under Total Projection: 44.82 (Real O/U= 47)

This is the game the Bears should easily win, which is exactly why they’ll lose! Seriously, if there is one random upset that could happen this week, I have a gut feeling it could be this one- Mitch Trubisky being a 7.5-point favorite feels like a disaster waiting to happen.

Thanks a lot for feedback fellas. I still had Tampa to use but if I didn't save them for next week, I'd be relegated to tossups. One other factor: There are only 14 of us left(2 took Tampa today) and I am the only one that hasn't used Buffalo. Many of them will be choosing between Chi+Hou but 3 still have Ravens. The pot is $8,050

Houston