week 18 survivor

weekly picks distribution percentages. numbers are from 12/31 tuesday 9am est. next update in 24-36 hours. 

1          GB      15.07%

2          BAL    15.07%

3          ATL    14.38%          

4          TB       13.7%            

5          DEN    6.85%

6          DET    6.85%

7          BUF    4.79%

8          LAC    3.42%

9          PHI     3.42%

10        IND     2.74%

11        HOU   2.74%

@Freviones

With the Lack of upsets other than the mess that is Indy and the domination of favorites these last few weeks we have inflated lines. Which IMO the larger chalk will give the assurance of an easy pick this week but I believe disgusting results are in store for week 18.  Hopefully we are on the right side of them. No one should be spending there winnings yet.     

BUCS for the win

@OneWinnerAWeek

 this is one of the best seasons in history for chalk. close to 70% or better. if you're going to make a bet it should be a favorite. 

@OneWinnerAWeek

 this is one of the best seasons in history for chalk. close to 70% or better. if you're going to make a bet it should be a favorite. 

updated picks distribution percentages. off the top 10 are detroit and buffalo; into the mix is miami 

1          ATL    24.66%          

2          GB      15.44%          

3          TB       14.28%          

4          BAL    12.78%          

5          DEN    9.11%

6          LAC    6.8%  

7          IND     6.02%

8          MIA    3.01%

9          PHI     2.68%

10        HOU   2.64%

predicted win percentages for each matchup. 

BAL    89.8%

PHI     82.9%

TB       79.7%

GB      74.7%

ATL    73.4%

IND     58.5%

LAC    55.6%

MIA    53.5%

HOU   51.9%

DEN    51.6%

current best available odds 

BAL    -19.5

PHI     -3

TB       -13.5

GB      -10

ATL    -7.5

IND     -4.5

LAC    -4.5

MIA    -1

HOU   +1.5

DEN    -10.5

A dog is rarely in the top 10 but houston is there at no.9 and at nearly 50% it suggests a coinflip game. The best value bet at current odds is philly -3. the oddsmakers adjusted with news that barkley is out, but that gives everyone value on the line. odds subject to change with more news but unlikely. 

@______P______

 tb buccs current odds -13.5 offers no value