***Week 7 Thoughts & AFC East Discussion***

Played straight games instead of parlays last week. Did pretty well. I've learned the hard way on teasers & parlays. I was putting like 500 a pop on 8 (or more) game parlays which is stupid. Obviously have a compulsive gambling problem. Put my last 2200 on Philly -4. Gotta go pick up my 4200 from Bookie but may let it ride on East Carolina Thursday. Temple is undefeated getting 3 vs 3-loss team & has Notre Dame at home on deck.

Anyways, tough card this week. At first glance I liked Seattle -4, St. Louis -4.5 & Washington -3. But those first two lines have gone all the way up to 7 now. Feel like I lost value. The Bills line started at 4 & is also up to 7 in London vs the Jags. The Bills burned me on an 8 team parlay last week hit 7 of 8. 500 to win 8500. F*ck Rex Ryan. I love to see him lose. The Bengals are for real, folks. Lets get this through everybody's head. This is the most complete team in the NFL. Andy Dalton is easily having his best season ever.

I have a 6 point teaser Seattle ML & Cardinals -1.5. 550 to win 500. Seattle is in a must win spot vs a team that lost too much in the off-season to be able to punish the weak Seahawks O-line. Kapernick is due for a 4 turnover game. The Ravens secondary should get absolutely exposed; Cardinals should bounce back after the loss. Ravens going b2b on West Coast. That secondary is god-awful. Playing John Brown & Larry Fitz in some DraftKings expecting them to go dumb.

Will probably be on Washington -3 at home vs the Bucs to bounce back after two tough losses. The Bucs are just so damn horrible. Jameis Winston wasn't a good 1st overall pick. Not gonna call him JeMarcus Russell yet, but ... yea.

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Enough rambling, here's the game everybody came for. The Jets vs the Patriots. I am a Patriots fan & have always hated the Jets (mainly because of Rex Ryan). What kind of idiot would bet against Tom Brady at home vs a Jets team he hates? That idiot would be me. Uncharacteristic play for me. But the Jets are the most improved team in the NFL. They have a great front 7. The Patriots haven't faced pressure all year. They did a little bit in the first half vs the Cowboys when Greg Hardy returned, but we're able to overcome because of Brandon Weeden went 3 and out 72 times that game.

I think the Bills defense is extremely overrated especially in the secondary. Rex Ryan opened his fat mouth & Brady exposed them. The Jets secondary is mounds better than Buffalo's. Former Pats CB Darrelle Revis will be guarding Edelman. I have concerns with Edelman after dropping a few balls he never drops vs the Colts. He has a broken finger he's been playing through & it's affected him. Combine that with being lined up vs the best CB in the NFL. The Jets are a balanced team. They will move the ball on the ground & set up the pass to Decker/Marshall. For the first time all year, the Patriots will struggle on offense. Their offensive line has overachieved this year. It's not as good as advertised. The Jets will exploit that w/ their new coach. He will send different blitz packages like he did vs Andrew Luck. The Patriots defense is exploitable. They bend but don't break. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick takes care of the football, the Jets can win this game. If Vegas is going to give us 10 points, we have to take it. That's way too many points in this rivalry game. I could see the Pats taking it 24-20, maybe 27-20 (max), but they won't cover this big number at home vs a new & improved Jets team. They're the number 2 ranked pass defense & the number 1 ranked rush D. Sprinkle a little on that money line as well. +365 looking JUICY. I am a Pats fan, I also pay my bills doing this but mostly from poker. Grab this line while it's at 10.

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JETS +10 LARGE

I think it's nuts to bet against the pats in their backyard. I don't care if it's +20 points. Why? Because the books wouldn't chalked that many points if they didn't know Brady can't cover that #. But good luck.

Can't agree more, everything on point - great stuff as always

I'm a Cowboys fan, but I am and always have been on the Pats bandwagon because they are always $$$. I even bet the pats this year against my boys and they came through. I was planning on riding them to the bank all year, but I am concerned about everything that you mentioned. Some concerns you mentioned are:

Ditto. Great post. And I would still take the Jets at 9. I think anything over a TD is good here. The Pats can still cover if Fitzpatrick throws careless interceptions like he has in the past. But I think this is the game the Pats new secondary takes some lumps. Second year player, Malcolm Butler, will be guarding Brandon Marshall, his toughest matchup all year. I think Ivory will have some success with the loss of Wilfork in the middle. The Pats D is giving up 4.84 yards per run this year. The Pats also will be without Matthew Slater, their special teams specialist who seems to make every tackle. Buster Skrine is one of the most underrated corners in the league & I think he has what it takes to contain these short crossing routes by the Pats & keep the gains to a minimum. Brady will get sacked in this game a few times. The Pats will potentially be starting a third stringer at LT. Tough task.

I'm a Pats fan and I agree.  I think Ivory is the key to the game.  He's looked surprisingly good and could potentially be a nightmare for the Pats to stop.  They keep saying that TOP isn't important on the radio but I completely disagree.  If a team is able to limit the number of possessions the Pats get and has a defense that actually makes them work hard for the yardage, it becomes much more difficult for the Pats to score as many points as they usually do.  I really dislike the Jets but I think it's worth a shot to take the points this week.