I JUST GLANCED AT THE WEEK 8 LINES. SEEMS THE BOOKS HAVE GONE TOO TOO FAR THE OTHER WAY. AFTER EVERYONE AND THEIR MOMS CLEANED UP LAST WEEK WITH POINTS BEING NO OBSTACLE THE BOOKS HAVE TAKEN MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEAMS AND GIVEN THEM HUGE AND I MEAN HUGE SPREADS OR SUPERIOR TEAMS AND GIVEN THEM BIG SPREADS AGAINST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEAMS NOT DREGS. SEEMS LIKE SOME OVERREACTION TO ME.
INDY VS STLOUIE IS NOT INDY VS SF...SORRY
I THINK I AM GOIN THE OTHER WAY ON A LOT OF THESE.
CRASH
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I JUST GLANCED AT THE WEEK 8 LINES. SEEMS THE BOOKS HAVE GONE TOO TOO FAR THE OTHER WAY. AFTER EVERYONE AND THEIR MOMS CLEANED UP LAST WEEK WITH POINTS BEING NO OBSTACLE THE BOOKS HAVE TAKEN MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEAMS AND GIVEN THEM HUGE AND I MEAN HUGE SPREADS OR SUPERIOR TEAMS AND GIVEN THEM BIG SPREADS AGAINST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEAMS NOT DREGS. SEEMS LIKE SOME OVERREACTION TO ME.
INDY VS STLOUIE IS NOT INDY VS SF...SORRY
I THINK I AM GOIN THE OTHER WAY ON A LOT OF THESE.
That is true, but Indy also covered by like 26 points.
They are at a point where they almost can't make a line high enough. You have to think it will catch up, but week after week, the favs have been rolling. Good teams are really good and even the mediocre teams aren't that good. Bad teams are beyond bad.
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INDY VS STLOUIE IS NOT INDY VS SF...SORRY
________
That is true, but Indy also covered by like 26 points.
They are at a point where they almost can't make a line high enough. You have to think it will catch up, but week after week, the favs have been rolling. Good teams are really good and even the mediocre teams aren't that good. Bad teams are beyond bad.
The trend is your friend until it ends and this is the week for me
Everyone is jumping on the favorites, Vegas is jacking these lines beuyond belief. The disparity is not that great. The skins should have covered last pm ( I had the Eagles not whining) and the Vikes should have covered also ( I had the Steelers).
I did not see the Fins but get the sense they screwed the pooch as much as the Aints won.
There are a lot of big casinos in Vegas with a lot of fancy lights. These are built from the suckers. In the end, the public will hang themselves whether it is the stock market, the roulette table or the sportsbook. I am jumping ship now before everyone else does.
It is human nature to relax a little and play down to your competition........unless you are the Pats, they bring it every week.
Crash
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Cannot believe it -
The trend is your friend until it ends and this is the week for me
Everyone is jumping on the favorites, Vegas is jacking these lines beuyond belief. The disparity is not that great. The skins should have covered last pm ( I had the Eagles not whining) and the Vikes should have covered also ( I had the Steelers).
I did not see the Fins but get the sense they screwed the pooch as much as the Aints won.
There are a lot of big casinos in Vegas with a lot of fancy lights. These are built from the suckers. In the end, the public will hang themselves whether it is the stock market, the roulette table or the sportsbook. I am jumping ship now before everyone else does.
It is human nature to relax a little and play down to your competition........unless you are the Pats, they bring it every week.
The trend is your friend until it ends and this is the week for me
Everyone is jumping on the favorites, Vegas is jacking these lines beuyond belief. The disparity is not that great. The skins should have covered last pm ( I had the Eagles not whining) and the Vikes should have covered also ( I had the Steelers).
I did not see the Fins but get the sense they screwed the pooch as much as the Aints won.
There are a lot of big casinos in Vegas with a lot of fancy lights. These are built from the suckers. In the end, the public will hang themselves whether it is the stock market, the roulette table or the sportsbook. I am jumping ship now before everyone else does.
It is human nature to relax a little and play down to your competition........unless you are the Pats, they bring it every week.
Crash
The stock market is not a negative-sum game like sports betting, the average (and I mean this in the statistical sense of the word) investor has made money off the stock market over the last 20 years, while the average bettor mathematically HAS to lose. So leave out the bad comparison.
Secondly, Vegas makes it's bread and butter of the juice.
But finally, I do agree that the spreads have gone too far to correct themselves and I am leaning towards almost all underdogs, and I had been betting mostly favorites. I agree the 49ers are not the Rams, I don't know how much value there is in this line but if there's a play it's the 49ers.
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
Cannot believe it -
The trend is your friend until it ends and this is the week for me
Everyone is jumping on the favorites, Vegas is jacking these lines beuyond belief. The disparity is not that great. The skins should have covered last pm ( I had the Eagles not whining) and the Vikes should have covered also ( I had the Steelers).
I did not see the Fins but get the sense they screwed the pooch as much as the Aints won.
There are a lot of big casinos in Vegas with a lot of fancy lights. These are built from the suckers. In the end, the public will hang themselves whether it is the stock market, the roulette table or the sportsbook. I am jumping ship now before everyone else does.
It is human nature to relax a little and play down to your competition........unless you are the Pats, they bring it every week.
Crash
The stock market is not a negative-sum game like sports betting, the average (and I mean this in the statistical sense of the word) investor has made money off the stock market over the last 20 years, while the average bettor mathematically HAS to lose. So leave out the bad comparison.
Secondly, Vegas makes it's bread and butter of the juice.
But finally, I do agree that the spreads have gone too far to correct themselves and I am leaning towards almost all underdogs, and I had been betting mostly favorites. I agree the 49ers are not the Rams, I don't know how much value there is in this line but if there's a play it's the 49ers.
I don't think the Indy line is off at all, and I bet the Rams on Sunday. The following week is the time to fade the Colts, they are going to lose at home to the Texans.
Nov 15th is the day the books get their money back, and then some.
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I don't think the Indy line is off at all, and I bet the Rams on Sunday. The following week is the time to fade the Colts, they are going to lose at home to the Texans.
Nov 15th is the day the books get their money back, and then some.
The comparison is made from the reference that most people in the market were selling this last year at 6500 and now are buying back in at 10000.
It refers to peoples psychological make up. Their risk aversion and their motivations. Unfortunately, many will make these same mistakes over and over and over again.
I am currently selling positions in the market with rallies , my next sell will be at 10,500 and this will liquify the postion I bought on the way down at 8500-7000. I quit buyin at 7000 because I too got scared!!!!
The Market over the last 20 years is up but how bout the last 10?
A contrairian view is sometimes the answer. Be Greedy when others are scared and scared when they are Greedy. I am reading so many posts with these average teams covering huge spreads that I am scared of these numbers as I sense greed on the part of others. The books did get hammered last week with terrible spreads, they have them again but I fear they are terrible in the other manner and people are jumping on the wrong side of them.
The Bears after being humiliated and having the anti Cutler bandwagon started and revving are now two touchdown favs?
I just think that this is nonsense. Many of these lines are suspect to me.
GLA
Welcome the feedback
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The comparison is made from the reference that most people in the market were selling this last year at 6500 and now are buying back in at 10000.
It refers to peoples psychological make up. Their risk aversion and their motivations. Unfortunately, many will make these same mistakes over and over and over again.
I am currently selling positions in the market with rallies , my next sell will be at 10,500 and this will liquify the postion I bought on the way down at 8500-7000. I quit buyin at 7000 because I too got scared!!!!
The Market over the last 20 years is up but how bout the last 10?
A contrairian view is sometimes the answer. Be Greedy when others are scared and scared when they are Greedy. I am reading so many posts with these average teams covering huge spreads that I am scared of these numbers as I sense greed on the part of others. The books did get hammered last week with terrible spreads, they have them again but I fear they are terrible in the other manner and people are jumping on the wrong side of them.
The Bears after being humiliated and having the anti Cutler bandwagon started and revving are now two touchdown favs?
I just think that this is nonsense. Many of these lines are suspect to me.
Finally, I believe that Vegas likes the Juice but I feel they are also leaving some spreads lopsided and looking to make a little more. Last week they left many lopsided and got killed, made the national news . Here is the link
Finally, I believe that Vegas likes the Juice but I feel they are also leaving some spreads lopsided and looking to make a little more. Last week they left many lopsided and got killed, made the national news . Here is the link
I think the Denver game speaks to motivation. I live here in the town and have been very very pleasantly surprised with my hometown team.
No one saw this coming. The opening week last second td cost me one of the largest bets of my life a wound that will not soon heal ( I had cinci ml).
I think they lose this week ( and have been wrong almost every week on this) and it plays to not their ability but their motivation. See little motivation for them this week .
Crash-
The Browns do suck but that line is big for a team just blown out by 30 or so.
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I think the Denver game speaks to motivation. I live here in the town and have been very very pleasantly surprised with my hometown team.
No one saw this coming. The opening week last second td cost me one of the largest bets of my life a wound that will not soon heal ( I had cinci ml).
I think they lose this week ( and have been wrong almost every week on this) and it plays to not their ability but their motivation. See little motivation for them this week .
Crash-
The Browns do suck but that line is big for a team just blown out by 30 or so.
I don't think the Indy line is off at all, and I bet the Rams on Sunday. The following week is the time to fade the Colts, they are going to lose at home to the Texans.
Nov 15th is the day the books get their money back, and then some.
You are a brave man to admit that.
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Quote Originally Posted by tsw:
I don't think the Indy line is off at all, and I bet the Rams on Sunday. The following week is the time to fade the Colts, they are going to lose at home to the Texans.
Nov 15th is the day the books get their money back, and then some.
I agree these lines all look pretty inflated. Honestly guys they are going to keep pumping them up until dogs cover. If these huge lines get beat by most or all teams they will be further inflated the next week. I usually think it is overstated how much a book got "hurt" on a given day but these lines seem to reflect that there is a phenomenon going on that they are seeking desperately to counter.
I remember with the Pats in 2007 a casino director said "We would rather give out way too many points because people are betting the Pats at any line now." I think they might inflate the dogs in the league in general now and cheer them on in the same manner.
A lot of teams we were questioning a few weeks ago are now laying doubt digits. I agree it is a product of the new mindset in bettors that there is no more parity in the league, a mindset books are more than happy to try and exploit, or at the very least are starting to make dramatic adjustments to at least get even action. It has to work because a lot of these dogs look good to me as well. They will get our action and things will even out. Mission accomplished.
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I agree these lines all look pretty inflated. Honestly guys they are going to keep pumping them up until dogs cover. If these huge lines get beat by most or all teams they will be further inflated the next week. I usually think it is overstated how much a book got "hurt" on a given day but these lines seem to reflect that there is a phenomenon going on that they are seeking desperately to counter.
I remember with the Pats in 2007 a casino director said "We would rather give out way too many points because people are betting the Pats at any line now." I think they might inflate the dogs in the league in general now and cheer them on in the same manner.
A lot of teams we were questioning a few weeks ago are now laying doubt digits. I agree it is a product of the new mindset in bettors that there is no more parity in the league, a mindset books are more than happy to try and exploit, or at the very least are starting to make dramatic adjustments to at least get even action. It has to work because a lot of these dogs look good to me as well. They will get our action and things will even out. Mission accomplished.
Just started betting this year did well first few weeks but had a horrible last two wks. starting to doubt my instincts..thinking of betting dallas and indy in teaser teasing both down 6 pnts. parlay the overs on denver and philly games, and maybe minny straight up. Any input would be helpful, thanks
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Just started betting this year did well first few weeks but had a horrible last two wks. starting to doubt my instincts..thinking of betting dallas and indy in teaser teasing both down 6 pnts. parlay the overs on denver and philly games, and maybe minny straight up. Any input would be helpful, thanks
Just started betting this year did well first few weeks but had a horrible last two wks. starting to doubt my instincts..thinking of betting dallas and indy in teaser teasing both down 6 pnts. parlay the overs on denver and philly games, and maybe minny straight up. Any input would be helpful, thanks
There are some great handicappers on here and I am not one of them. I would follow Mrbator, the dude is pretty good. There are many people offerong opinions, check em out and follow them. You'll find some that you will wanna follow and others you wanna fade.
I have been impressed with this yppt thread also.
GL--
Crash
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Quote Originally Posted by charger_fansama:
Just started betting this year did well first few weeks but had a horrible last two wks. starting to doubt my instincts..thinking of betting dallas and indy in teaser teasing both down 6 pnts. parlay the overs on denver and philly games, and maybe minny straight up. Any input would be helpful, thanks
There are some great handicappers on here and I am not one of them. I would follow Mrbator, the dude is pretty good. There are many people offerong opinions, check em out and follow them. You'll find some that you will wanna follow and others you wanna fade.
I agree these lines all look pretty inflated. Honestly guys they are going to keep pumping them up until dogs cover. If these huge lines get beat by most or all teams they will be further inflated the next week. I usually think it is overstated how much a book got "hurt" on a given day but these lines seem to reflect that there is a phenomenon going on that they are seeking desperately to counter.
I remember with the Pats in 2007 a casino director said "We would rather give out way too many points because people are betting the Pats at any line now." I think they might inflate the dogs in the league in general now and cheer them on in the same manner.
A lot of teams we were questioning a few weeks ago are now laying doubt digits. I agree it is a product of the new mindset in bettors that there is no more parity in the league, a mindset books are more than happy to try and exploit, or at the very least are starting to make dramatic adjustments to at least get even action. It has to work because a lot of these dogs look good to me as well. They will get our action and things will even out. Mission accomplished.
Wow- Amen!
Well stated.
I remember 2007 with fondness, I was laying those big numbers then, do not think I will this year.
One bet this week on Favre. Cannot resist. The rest I am going small on. Waiting to see how it plays out.
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Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:
I agree these lines all look pretty inflated. Honestly guys they are going to keep pumping them up until dogs cover. If these huge lines get beat by most or all teams they will be further inflated the next week. I usually think it is overstated how much a book got "hurt" on a given day but these lines seem to reflect that there is a phenomenon going on that they are seeking desperately to counter.
I remember with the Pats in 2007 a casino director said "We would rather give out way too many points because people are betting the Pats at any line now." I think they might inflate the dogs in the league in general now and cheer them on in the same manner.
A lot of teams we were questioning a few weeks ago are now laying doubt digits. I agree it is a product of the new mindset in bettors that there is no more parity in the league, a mindset books are more than happy to try and exploit, or at the very least are starting to make dramatic adjustments to at least get even action. It has to work because a lot of these dogs look good to me as well. They will get our action and things will even out. Mission accomplished.
Wow- Amen!
Well stated.
I remember 2007 with fondness, I was laying those big numbers then, do not think I will this year.
One bet this week on Favre. Cannot resist. The rest I am going small on. Waiting to see how it plays out.
I don't think the Indy line is off at all, and I bet the Rams on Sunday. The following week is the time to fade the Colts, they are going to lose at home to the Texans.
Nov 15th is the day the books get their money back, and then some.
My advice do not bet on the Colts anymore!
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Quote Originally Posted by tsw:
I don't think the Indy line is off at all, and I bet the Rams on Sunday. The following week is the time to fade the Colts, they are going to lose at home to the Texans.
Nov 15th is the day the books get their money back, and then some.
I think the Denver game speaks to motivation. I live here in the town and have been very very pleasantly surprised with my hometown team.
No one saw this coming. The opening week last second td cost me one of the largest bets of my life a wound that will not soon heal ( I had cinci ml).
I think they lose this week ( and have been wrong almost every week on this) and it plays to not their ability but their motivation. See little motivation for them this week .
Crash-
The Browns do suck but that line is big for a team just blown out by 30 or so.
nah The Browns really really suck
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
I think the Denver game speaks to motivation. I live here in the town and have been very very pleasantly surprised with my hometown team.
No one saw this coming. The opening week last second td cost me one of the largest bets of my life a wound that will not soon heal ( I had cinci ml).
I think they lose this week ( and have been wrong almost every week on this) and it plays to not their ability but their motivation. See little motivation for them this week .
Crash-
The Browns do suck but that line is big for a team just blown out by 30 or so.
Just rolled the books. Thanks to all of you for your insight.
Have hit every WS game and a couple of BIG BIG PLAYS the last two weeks. Like every gambler feel I should have gone bigger on some of these locks but that is the fucked up way we think.
Gonna take a month off and let it all sink in. Enjoy the winning feeling. Enjoy the Free Money. Buy the wife a nice gift and go on vacation. See you for NFL playoffs.
Crash
p.s. cannot see the books really offering almost plus 180 for the Phils in Game 6.
If I was gambling this month Pedro kicks Pettites arse for the first five. Both these bullpens are so bad after that just take the in game over cuz there will be fireworks again!
but I am off for a month......so no first five Pedro bet.
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Guys Have had the best month of my life-
Just rolled the books. Thanks to all of you for your insight.
Have hit every WS game and a couple of BIG BIG PLAYS the last two weeks. Like every gambler feel I should have gone bigger on some of these locks but that is the fucked up way we think.
Gonna take a month off and let it all sink in. Enjoy the winning feeling. Enjoy the Free Money. Buy the wife a nice gift and go on vacation. See you for NFL playoffs.
Crash
p.s. cannot see the books really offering almost plus 180 for the Phils in Game 6.
If I was gambling this month Pedro kicks Pettites arse for the first five. Both these bullpens are so bad after that just take the in game over cuz there will be fireworks again!
but I am off for a month......so no first five Pedro bet.
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nice call! 
should have been 13 points total mismatch
Like your way of thinking,,, GL
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