Week 9 - 2 plays w/write-ups

Chicago -3.5 @ Tenn

This looks like a bit of a square play, but I think there is good value on the Bears.  From a pure power rating, the Bears have value at this price.  I also think it’s a good bounce-back spot for Chicago, who had their wake-up call last week with a fortunate win vs Carolina—there’s less chance that they will take the Titans lightly, especially with Tennessee coming in winning 2 of their last 3 games.  After Chicago lost to GB earlier this season, they came out the next week and dominated an inferior StL team, who is in the same class as this Tenn outfit.  The Bears have taken care of business against a couple other teams in this category, beating indy 41-21 and Jax 41-3.  The Titans have struggled to step up in class this season, losing to Minn 30-7, Houston 38-14 and NE 34-13.  Their defense is in the bottom-10 in yds/play allowed, turnovers forced, yds/attempt and red zone.  Teams that have given Chicago trouble can rush the QB, and Tennessee is NOT that team, with only 11 sacks on the year.  Meanwhile the Bears are tied for 3^rd in the league with 23 sacks, and will be facing a banged-up Tennessee OL, in which 4 of the 5 starters made the injury report this week.  The Titans have looked better the past few weeks as Chris Johnson has gotten going, but the Bears also stop the run better than any defense in the NFL. 

Carolina +3 @ Washington

Carolina a tough team to back right now, as I get the feeling there is dissension in the locker room and a lack of leadership.  They continue to lose close games, and their clock management and strategy at the end of these games is head-scratching to say the least.  Washington has been in every game this season (last week vs Pitt was probably their worst performance; you get the feeling the Steelers could have scored even more had the game been closer in the 2H), with only 2 games decided by >8 points.  Meanwhile Carolina’s margins of defeat in 6 of their 7 losses:  1, 5, 4, 2, 6.  As I said, I can’t trust Rivera’s endgame strategy in a close one, but are you thinking what I’m thinking?  Looks like a good spot for a teaser—Carolina +9.

Miami -2.5 @ Indy

These are a couple more teams who tend to play tight games.  Miami used special teams to ring up last week’s win over the Jets, but their previous 4 games had been decided by 4 points or less.  Meanwhile the Colts have had 5 games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The Colts have been solid at home, beating the Browns, Packers and Vikes.  Miami is solid, certainly better than anyone predicted, but they fall somewhere in that group that the Colts have beaten at home.  The Fins have only been a favorite once, and did not cover at home to the Rams, who outgained them by 270 yards.  Miami has been outgained in all but 2 contests this season, which makes them difficult to back as a road favorite.  So I’ll lean to the Colts +2.5, but like them even more paired with the Panthers on a teaser—Colts +8.5.

Plays

Chicago -3.5

Carolina +9/Indy +8.5 (6-point teaser)

Detroit -5.5 @ Jax

Missed the boat on this one, wanted to lay the 3.5 but just couldn’t pull the trigger.  The Lions have not won by margin this season (wins by 4, 3, 4 points) and haven’t looked overly impressive vs other mediocre teams like the Rams and Titans.  Meanwhile the Jags are very tough to back, especially at home, where they are 0-3 SU/ATS with their closest game being a 17-point loss to the Bengals.  If the Lions can’t get their passing attack going against the Jags, they might never do it. The Jags are dead last in the NFL with only 7 sacks, and will be missing at least 2 starters from their secondary (CB Mathis, S Lowery) with a 3^rd starter (CB Cox) a game-time decision.  I won’t lay the 5.5 at this point, getting the worst of the number, but I think the Lions are a solid teaser play.

TB +2 @ Oakland

I think there is a bit of value on the Bucs here.  The Raiders have won their last two games vs probably the 2 worst teams in the NFL, KC and Jax.  The Bucs are 5-2 ATS overall and have fared well on the road with a 3-0 ATS mark.  They have outgained their last 3 opponents as Josh Freeman and the passing attack have looked very good.  This has opened things up for RB Doug Martin and vice versa.  Look for them to attack a below-average Oakland secondary that will be without their 2 week 1 starting CBs (Bartell IR, Spencer out).  The TB offense has done a good job of not turning the ball over, and the Raiders’ defense is not a ball-hawking unit.  Offensively the Raiders have been much better since their bye week but still struggle to run the ball.  Oakland had 3 OL starters show up on the injury report this week, which will make running the ball and holding a lead difficult vs a relatively healthy TB defense.  TB also boasts a solid red zone offense and defense while the Raiders are near the bottom in both categories.  I like the extra 6 points in a teaser in what should be a close game, but I will also look to play TB on the ML +110.

Play:

Detroit +1/2 / TB +8 (6-point teaser)