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Week 9 - Lines with plays to follow

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Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 64
Posted: #1
This is my first year following the NFL closely, and I have been trying to put my skills as an actuary to statistical modelling. Dont have an overly large amount of time to do it each week so have just been playing around.. This week i feel like i have a slightly better read than previous weeks, and there is 8 weeks of data now for models to read off which is better as we go forward..
Have posted a few totals plays last few weeks to no success in particular, but have had most success on QB props this year, modelling passing yards.. Anyway here are my lines for this week, will post plays to follow, and some QB props late when they are up on books.. My lines are for home team
KC @ SD ; -10.5 .. didnt end up playing the minus unfortunately *sigh*
Denver @ Cincy; 6.5
Baltimore @ Cleveland 3.0
Arizona @ Green Bay -10.0
Buffalo @ Houston -15.5
Miami @ Colts 1.5
Detroit @ Jags 5.0
Chicago @ Tenn 6.5
Panthers @ Skins 5.0
TB @ Oakland 1.0
Vikes @ Seattle -3.5
Pitt @ Giants -3.5
Dallas @ Atlanta -6.5
Philly @ New Orleans -0.5

Based on these lines I am leaning on alot of away favourites this week which is a worry, but if the number suggest it I will think about them.. Initial leans are
Chicago -3.5
Denver -3.5
Detroit -4.0
Houston -10
Tampa Bay ML
Philly +3

No official plays yet, but might lock a few in later today as lines moving in the direction I want to take ...

BOL to all this week


 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 64
Posted: #2
My plays will be 'to win' i.e 1 unit on -110, wagering 1.1 units to win 1
Locking in 3 plays (will have more on game day):

Detroit -4 (-110) 1 Unit
Although my line isnt too far off the books, I feel like Detroit are moving in the right direction again, and the Jags are going backwards. With MJD out their offense lacks much potency, and I think Detroit actually have been defending OK. With Stafford throwing his way back into some form and Detroit establishing a little bit of ground game, I see them controlling this game, the ball, and winning comfortably

Denver -3.5 (-110) 1 unit
 As above I feel like Denver is really starting to click, highlighted by some solid rushing game last week, not just Manning throwing. Combining these two offensive weapons is lethal, and their defense shut down Brees which is no easy feat, confidence will be high. On the flip side i think the Bengals, although coming off the bye, have really not shown me much to like this year. Dalton is not playing well, and I think ultimately Denver rolls here and could blow them out, will take the -3.5 and hope that i am right

Houston -10 (-110) 1 unit
This does seem like a square play, but quite honestly I have thought about this for a long time and I just don't see how the Bills don't get blown out here. They don't defend the run well so Foster will have a field day and it will set up the play action for Shaub to take some deep shots. Houston should be able to contain Spiller and Jackson, and I think will get pressure on the QB. Ultimately I lined this at -15.5, great than 2 TD so i am jumping on the flat -10 now, in case it gets to -10.5 by game day.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Chicago -3.5 (+106) 1 unit
Tennesse have been improving, but I can't ignore this line Chicago are ranked top 4 in my power ranking derived from statistics are tenn still fall into the bottom 5.. Tenn don't defend the run so I think Chicago will be able to sustain drives and control the ball with the run, and in defense I think Chicago can restrain Tennessee, was hoping for the line to drop to flat -3 but took the +105 and hope they get home by more than the FG 
 
All-Star
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Posted: #4
BOL
 
Veteran
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Posted: #5
Picks look good for this Sunday.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 64
Posted: #6
Adding 

Denver -4 (-103) 1 unit 

Thought about this further and adding another unit, really like this play, usually stick to flat 1 unit plays but gonna double down in this spot .. Shame I missed the half point but still confident enough to go at the -4 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
For interest I'll post my power rankings of teams against their opponent in my plays
Buffalo @ Houston ... #31@#3
chicago @ Tennessee ... #4@#26
Detroit @ jags ... #17@#30
Denver @ cincy ... #6@#25

I am not entirely happy with my rankings at this stage as I haven't adjusted the statistics for the strength of opposition I aim to do these adjustments I the next week at work and am excited to see my final findings.. Anyway I will use the data I have at the moment .. 

Stats that my rankings are based on are on the offensive and defensive side are 
Total yards
Yards/pass
Yards/rush
Pass completion
#first downs
Third down conversion %
Turnovers

Cover my losses
Billyweather

 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 64
Posted: #8
Favourite time of the week are the QB Props.. dont have time to give a right up to each but i have flat wagered on all of them to win 1 unit... depends on your book but you should find similiar lines around

Eli Manning under 285.5
Ben Roethesberger Over 270.5
Matt Ryan under 285.5
Cam Newton over 267.5
Aaron Rogers under 285.5
Andrew Luck over 267.5
Joe Flaco over 248.5
Carson Palmer over 280.5
Michael Vick over 267.5

All (-110)

BOL

 
Legend
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Posted: #9
GL, mate.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 64
Posted: #10
Houston -10  1 unit
Chicago -3.5  1 unit
Denver -3.5 2 units
Detroit -4  1 unit
4/4 morning but 5 units on spreads, definitely my best day yet, had a parlay action on them also but not posted wont count to record 

Quarter backs - mixed morning down 0.2 units
Luck 
Rogers 
Flack 
SCAM newton 
Bit disappointed burning money on two out of form QBs, 4 QB plays pending to end out a good Sunday thus far.. Hope everyone is enjoying a good day pounding th books 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 64
Posted: #11
Manning 
Big Ben 
Palmer 

Pending ... Matt Ryan under 285.5
MNF Vick over 267.5

Day +5.8 units 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1899
Posted: #12
Great day for you, congrats.

 
Prospect
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Posts: 64
Posted: #13
Ryan 
4-4 on QBs to loose 0.4 units 

4-0 sides to win 5 units

Pending Vick over 267.5

Then on to week 10 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 64
Posted: #14
Vick
Got abit lucky with the late cover but you take it !

Week 9
Spreads 4-0 +5 units

QB Props 5-4 +0.6 units

+5.6 units
 
 
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Posts: 1222
Posted: #15
good work statsman49!!!!!......week 10......will be tough!!!!!.......vegas will make the line high
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