"Bears bust up Buccaneers" yup, just like Trump will win again. Do your due diligence then we'll talk. Can't wait for 30 days "Doctor No," you'll be sick of me "Doctor.''
This is a football thread, not a political thread. Start a political thread and I'll be happy to pop on there and tell you why Creepy Joe is going to lose. Until then keep your racism to your own political threads.
5
Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
"Bears bust up Buccaneers" yup, just like Trump will win again. Do your due diligence then we'll talk. Can't wait for 30 days "Doctor No," you'll be sick of me "Doctor.''
This is a football thread, not a political thread. Start a political thread and I'll be happy to pop on there and tell you why Creepy Joe is going to lose. Until then keep your racism to your own political threads.
the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread.
Thanks, Quebec!
My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value.
There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money.
1
Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques:
the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread.
Thanks, Quebec!
My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value.
There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money.
Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money.
I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers...
0
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:
Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money.
I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers...
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers...
I see the opposite actually. In your Packers example as soon as I saw the line steamed to 5.5 I knew the public ( especially being a night game ) was all over the Falcons which meant the Packers were the play ( always wanna be on the opposite side of the betting public ). Just my 2 cents
0
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers...
I see the opposite actually. In your Packers example as soon as I saw the line steamed to 5.5 I knew the public ( especially being a night game ) was all over the Falcons which meant the Packers were the play ( always wanna be on the opposite side of the betting public ). Just my 2 cents
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers... I see the opposite actually. In your Packers example as soon as I saw the line steamed to 5.5 I knew the public ( especially being a night game ) was all over the Falcons which meant the Packers were the play ( always wanna be on the opposite side of the betting public ). Just my 2 cents
That’s absurd. Falcons were not public dogs. When has the public, in our lifetime, bet against Rodgers in prime time at home?! Give me a break. That line move, if it meant anything at all, was either sharp money or an attempt by the books to get the public to think twice about pounding the Packers. And besides, moving off a key number like +7.5 to +5 meant the books could get middled badly by sharps who got the Falcons earlier in the week! Something stinks, besides my picks:
0
Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE:
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers... I see the opposite actually. In your Packers example as soon as I saw the line steamed to 5.5 I knew the public ( especially being a night game ) was all over the Falcons which meant the Packers were the play ( always wanna be on the opposite side of the betting public ). Just my 2 cents
That’s absurd. Falcons were not public dogs. When has the public, in our lifetime, bet against Rodgers in prime time at home?! Give me a break. That line move, if it meant anything at all, was either sharp money or an attempt by the books to get the public to think twice about pounding the Packers. And besides, moving off a key number like +7.5 to +5 meant the books could get middled badly by sharps who got the Falcons earlier in the week! Something stinks, besides my picks:
BB, you actually had some great lines. Jets +3 early in the week was another. Let's look at another angle I like: the coaching matchups. The Jets and Falcons have two of the league's worst offensive coordinators, and Miami has one of the league's worst defensive coordinators. While Green Bay and Seattle have above average offensive coordinators. So maybe going forward a combination of both a good line and a good coaching matchup.
1
BB, you actually had some great lines. Jets +3 early in the week was another. Let's look at another angle I like: the coaching matchups. The Jets and Falcons have two of the league's worst offensive coordinators, and Miami has one of the league's worst defensive coordinators. While Green Bay and Seattle have above average offensive coordinators. So maybe going forward a combination of both a good line and a good coaching matchup.
BB, you actually had some great lines. Jets +3 early in the week was another. Let's look at another angle I like: the coaching matchups. The Jets and Falcons have two of the league's worst offensive coordinators, and Miami has one of the league's worst defensive coordinators. While Green Bay and Seattle have above average offensive coordinators. So maybe going forward a combination of both a good line and a good coaching matchup.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:
BB, you actually had some great lines. Jets +3 early in the week was another. Let's look at another angle I like: the coaching matchups. The Jets and Falcons have two of the league's worst offensive coordinators, and Miami has one of the league's worst defensive coordinators. While Green Bay and Seattle have above average offensive coordinators. So maybe going forward a combination of both a good line and a good coaching matchup.
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers...
The mistake- according to Doctor Success- is that you bet too early. According to him there is no good starting line to bet on, because they are all sharp, at least as far as I understand him.
Honestly, I doubt this thesis, but I lack the knowledge of the sport to even try to prove that. From my observations as an arbitrage bettor though, I would think that most of the time it is the opposite way: there is actually value left in the closing line of the site that has been bet down. That would mean that the market ( squares and sharps by betting, linesmakers by making non betting related adjustements) tends to under- and not overreact to a starting line that is suspected to be wrong.
0
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers...
The mistake- according to Doctor Success- is that you bet too early. According to him there is no good starting line to bet on, because they are all sharp, at least as far as I understand him.
Honestly, I doubt this thesis, but I lack the knowledge of the sport to even try to prove that. From my observations as an arbitrage bettor though, I would think that most of the time it is the opposite way: there is actually value left in the closing line of the site that has been bet down. That would mean that the market ( squares and sharps by betting, linesmakers by making non betting related adjustements) tends to under- and not overreact to a starting line that is suspected to be wrong.
I also think it is underdetermined to say a lineshift is a lineshift without trying to look at the motivation of the shifting ( which is no easy business of course).
As an easy example of when a starting line may be set mathematically correct and at the same time will surely be proven wrong (i.e. adjusted), take the following: as the starting line is being made, the superstar of a team is 50/50 to play. He is worth 8 points and the line is starting at -4. Depending on the status of the superstar, the closing line will be either pk or -8.
So, half an hour from gametime the line shifts heavily. Can the starting line still be considered sharp and should you bet against the move? Yes and no, I think. The starting line may have been sharp from a mathematical point of view but it has clearly been refuted. I doubt it should be an autobet at least.
0
I also think it is underdetermined to say a lineshift is a lineshift without trying to look at the motivation of the shifting ( which is no easy business of course).
As an easy example of when a starting line may be set mathematically correct and at the same time will surely be proven wrong (i.e. adjusted), take the following: as the starting line is being made, the superstar of a team is 50/50 to play. He is worth 8 points and the line is starting at -4. Depending on the status of the superstar, the closing line will be either pk or -8.
So, half an hour from gametime the line shifts heavily. Can the starting line still be considered sharp and should you bet against the move? Yes and no, I think. The starting line may have been sharp from a mathematical point of view but it has clearly been refuted. I doubt it should be an autobet at least.
One of many angles to decipher the nature of a lineshift is the speed of the shift. A slow and creeping shift tends to represent a difference in perception, a speedy shift often means a new data situation.
0
One of many angles to decipher the nature of a lineshift is the speed of the shift. A slow and creeping shift tends to represent a difference in perception, a speedy shift often means a new data situation.
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers... The mistake- according to Doctor Success- is that you bet too early. According to him there is no good starting line to bet on, because they are all sharp, at least as far as I understand him. Honestly, I doubt this thesis, but I lack the knowledge of the sport to even try to prove that. From my observations as an arbitrage bettor though, I would think that most of the time it is the opposite way: there is actually value left in the closing line of the site that has been bet down. That would mean that the market ( squares and sharps by betting, linesmakers by making non betting related adjustements) tends to under- and not overreact to a starting line that is suspected to be wrong.
No, you are misinterpreting what I wrote. Mindreading - assuming what another is thinking - is a form of loser think.
If you want to know how lines are made ask a linemaker, or read the first chapter of Week One NFL Winners. Lines are made with power ratings. Then during the week, injuries, betting, and public perception proceed to move the line one way or another. A line of 7 on Monday can be sharp and so can the same line on Friday at 9, depending on what happens during the week.
Going forward, I advise everyone to make their own line on any game they are thinking of betting on. And then bet according to any overlays. It's not hard to make a sharper line than the linemaker, because his line is a betting line, not a prediction line. But we can make prediction lines.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Crater:
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess: Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money. I got screwed with some good lines I got earlier in the week because the lines moved in my favor! I thought I was sharp but was outsharped:) I had dolphins at +6.5, Falcons +7.5 and Niners -6! All three lost but I really don’t think the picks or lines I got were bad, just feel unlucky with a bounce here and there going against me (Mullins was horrible, had he just been average I think Niners win). I used to feel real good when I’d get a great line and it would move in my favor as the week went on (because that used to mean you were sharp:) but now I just get a sick feeling in my stomach like I’ll now be on the wrong side. Explain, Doc, were the lines I got, compared to where they ended up , bad? Should I just continue doing what I’ve been doing, or has something fundamentally changed with the way the books are using the lines to manipulate public perception?! I’ve never seen so many lines move off key numbers the way they have been of late! For example, if I suddenly see the Falcons go from +7.5 to +5 I might be less likely to bet the Packers... The mistake- according to Doctor Success- is that you bet too early. According to him there is no good starting line to bet on, because they are all sharp, at least as far as I understand him. Honestly, I doubt this thesis, but I lack the knowledge of the sport to even try to prove that. From my observations as an arbitrage bettor though, I would think that most of the time it is the opposite way: there is actually value left in the closing line of the site that has been bet down. That would mean that the market ( squares and sharps by betting, linesmakers by making non betting related adjustements) tends to under- and not overreact to a starting line that is suspected to be wrong.
No, you are misinterpreting what I wrote. Mindreading - assuming what another is thinking - is a form of loser think.
If you want to know how lines are made ask a linemaker, or read the first chapter of Week One NFL Winners. Lines are made with power ratings. Then during the week, injuries, betting, and public perception proceed to move the line one way or another. A line of 7 on Monday can be sharp and so can the same line on Friday at 9, depending on what happens during the week.
Going forward, I advise everyone to make their own line on any game they are thinking of betting on. And then bet according to any overlays. It's not hard to make a sharper line than the linemaker, because his line is a betting line, not a prediction line. But we can make prediction lines.
Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money.
Hi Doc,
it was this post of you that I was refering to. That sounds to me, while trying to do as little mindreading as possible, as if you take the initial line as a reference and attribute some sort of sharpness to it (which may be/have been true at the time the line was made).
Now you wait for a lineshift and any shift of at least 2 points triggers a bet against that specific move- that is how I understood your system. This sounds to me as if you consider the line after the shift to be less sharp, but I have to admit that there is some mindreading involved. If I am wrong, please help me out- that might be due to my bad english.
With your last post on the other hand you state that a line, while changing maybe even many times on its way from starting to closing line, may be sharp the whole way- and that sounds more like the truth to me.
At the same time, that should be a bit of an undermining of your strategy, to autobet (?) after a shift, because- without further examination- you could end up betting a sharp line, which is what you should not wanna do normally.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:
Quote Originally Posted by QuebecNordiques: the DR nailing most of the games with line movement last week, its one to look at . Ive asked others about line movement , Nada! Zip. I learn from your thread. Thanks, Quebec! My theory is the people who make the line get paid a lot of money for what they do and they are usually very sharp. If they say the line is 7 and it gets bet up to 9, then by taking the dog you are getting an extra 2 points of value. There's also a go-against-the-public angle to it as you are taking the opposite side of the public money.
Hi Doc,
it was this post of you that I was refering to. That sounds to me, while trying to do as little mindreading as possible, as if you take the initial line as a reference and attribute some sort of sharpness to it (which may be/have been true at the time the line was made).
Now you wait for a lineshift and any shift of at least 2 points triggers a bet against that specific move- that is how I understood your system. This sounds to me as if you consider the line after the shift to be less sharp, but I have to admit that there is some mindreading involved. If I am wrong, please help me out- that might be due to my bad english.
With your last post on the other hand you state that a line, while changing maybe even many times on its way from starting to closing line, may be sharp the whole way- and that sounds more like the truth to me.
At the same time, that should be a bit of an undermining of your strategy, to autobet (?) after a shift, because- without further examination- you could end up betting a sharp line, which is what you should not wanna do normally.
You can auto bet if you want - so far that has worked out wonderfully - or pick and choose your spots. I like to handicap the game and make my own line first before looking at the line move. This season has been wacky. I don't recall so many lines moving to this degree in recent seasons.
0
You can auto bet if you want - so far that has worked out wonderfully - or pick and choose your spots. I like to handicap the game and make my own line first before looking at the line move. This season has been wacky. I don't recall so many lines moving to this degree in recent seasons.
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