What am I missing here? ATL/TB

So this is very similar to the game last night in that you are looking at a line where it seems obvious and then start thinking something is fishy here. 

There are some differences in looking further into the game though. I played the Rams last night documented in my thread. Just looking fishy or going against "public" is not a good enough reason to make a play. But looking into the game, you had Vikes off tough loss vs division foe, going on the road on short week, Rams getting key players back, McVay great TNF record, etc. 

Here we have the opposite, where the situational stuff seems to heavily favor Atlanta, but we have a line of only 2.5. Atlanta torched Tampa through the air last time, they are off an embarrassing blow out loss. Tampa lost the 2 biggest pieces of their offense, their defense is getting gashed weekly, are we thinking Baker is gonna just sling it around no problem to Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan and keep up score as their secondary gets torched yet again?

Ive been looking at this all week trying to figure out if I'm missing something

@Yanasaur

Good catch and I agree with the points you made but the difference is that the Vikes were the overwhelming consensus betting pick over the Rams. Not so in the Falcons/Bucs matchup. 

A huge ingredient in the Rams' upset victory over the Vikes were the 3rd down bailout calls by the refs that kept floundering Rams' drives alive. Will the Falcons get that kind of help from the refs this week? I wouldn't count on it. BOL and good writeup, food for thought. 

@Buffalobob89074

 I won't dispute that there were definitely some bailout calls. I really want to bet Hotlanta im just wondering is this too easy?

Before the injuries to Godwin and Evans, the line for this game was Bucs -2.5 so that's a 5 point move for those 2 players. Do they justify that? I sort of think so, but typically in these cases the line moves too much and you should be taking the team with the injured players. Just another perspective on this game.

I think there is rather large difference between Atlanta and Baltimore! Defending against Baltimore is a nightmare. That said Mayfield has had 2 horrible games and he has to play at a high level for the Bucs to win….The question is can he ? 

Can baker do it with his top 2 WRs out? That offense is crippled but the NFL is fake so, probably... 

That last matchup was a defensive disgusting performance from both , the difference is falcons d has not continued to look so bad and Tampa has gotten worse 

You get to bet against the worst d that is busting coverages regularly and has now missed its top 2 wideouts

Falcons are mid but they at least do some fundamentals

What is todd bowles doing on defense over there to be so bad ?

@CalBear2009

 Personally I had the Bucs at -1 before the injuries because of their defense being so bad, so a 3.5 pt move missing those 2 players. Considering their offense revolves almost entirely around them and they are bad at rushing I do think its justified. 

Put my modest eight win streak survivor streak on the line taking Atlanta -2 earlier in the week.  The fact that it's on the road gave me a bit of pause but I just think this line is too short considering how banged up the Bucs are.

@Natty68

good luck. I think i lost survivor in week 5 after rebuying after losing on cincy week 1. I did end up putting in the atlanta -2.5 play, i just cant find any reason not to

Baker Stinkfield gets his ass handed to him tomorrow. Take it to the bank.

see these are the comments I look for, which ultimately locks in the Bucs for me. Know nothings and they’re emotional bullsh!t. 

Tampa are a lock

Better QB

Mayday was throwing the ball up for grabs against Baltimore. 

Under 

Atlanta easy winner 

@Contrarian21

 Yea i dont like that at all. Probably need to cash out my bet now

Bucs have been running the ball great and stopping the run. Injuries are not good for the bucs but replacements are still NFL receivers. 

if bucs can dominate both lines of scrimmage and give baker a clean pocket, could be a very long day for Atlanta no matter who bucs pass catchers are. 

(Also when teams get injuries at WR they tend to roll with more TE personnel. Look for lots of 2 TE sets or two TE’s on the field at once.)

Drank the juice -120 and took bucs plus 3.